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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Crypto seems to only do well when the Stockmarket is doing well like last year not so well the Stockmarket is falling.

Should the sh$$ hit the fan and panic starts to set in, gold might not have any real competition in that scenario.

I see crypto as a speculative gamble, not really as an asset
 
It would be nice to buy a good pub where only kindly rapscallions and argumentative punters given to passion and hope such as reside on ASF were shareholders and patrons.

I have awoken at 3.00 am Australian Queensland Fixed time to find my meagre cigar-money stock portfolio in the USA bounding ahead and Gold moving down towards $USD1900.

Gold makes fools of us all. I had hopes for at least it cruising up at $USD1950-1970.

Greed and Fear. Love em both.

gg
 

Indeud.



The garbage is running.

That probably includes BTC. Certainly it could be classed as speculative.

jog on
duc
 
Looks like the bullish trend for Gold could be over as least in the short term, it was fun while it lasted. Exceptionally high employment numbers in America suggest the Fed might have to keep raising interest rate ever higher which would bad news for Gold.

No pause or pivot from the FED
 

This is well overdue for a healthy market. Only climate clowns would be thinking this was sustainable. Think 5 years ahead, or be a day trader.
 

You had people on here just a few days ago gloatingly quoting the daily price movement and proclaiming the nonstop streak of weekly upcloses in gold ETFs was going to continue.

Like I said repeatedly, it was obviously not going to happen just based on the absurd sentiment of it.

I usually don't do stuff like this but the sentiment here was so ridiculous I unloaded my AEM shares (just a couple of % of my total portfolio) into the market at 56 the other day and bought them back this morning at the NYSE close something like 7% lower.

Retracements in any market are expected and healthy. Parabolic moves in both price and sentiment are not sustainable and should invoke wariness.
 
The fundamental position:

The US has a debt problem.
The US can either (a) default on debt or (b) inflate the debt lower.
It is (highly) likely that they will choose (b).

Therefore with Powell raising the FFR, Yellen at the Treasury had an issue with UST market functioning: ie. it wasn't. The US was close to a liquidity crisis in October 2022 due to the strength in the USD.



In Oct. 2022, Yellen reached an 'accord' with the IMF to weaken the USD. Since then the USD has weakened (peak-to-trough 11%).This has offset Powell's FFR hikes and calmed the Treasury markets.

To do this Yellen had to spend down the Treasury. She did. Now she needs more:



Of course that cash balance could be a lot lower.



Essentially net-net, not a lot of tightening has occurred.

Today we had the job numbers. Who believes those? LOL.

When 'jobs' are increasing, tax receipts increase, reducing deficits (look at Yellen's requirements again)



Deficits are set to increase (see Yellen). Which means that the 'jobs' data is very likely: (a) incorrect, (b) fabricated or (c) this time it's different.

Then we have Central Banks buying gold hand-over-fist. If anyone knows, they know.

Gold will, like any financial asset, fluctuate. Gold historically has been very volatile. Nothing new under the sun.

Essentially we have a 'Treasury Pivot' with the Fed. continuing to try and offset inflation by killing 'consumer demand', which it is doing very successfully. So successfully that a major recession is inevitable.



jog on
duc
 
Great Analysis Duc.

The only question I have is , given your preference for option B in your very first sentence, namely they want to inflate their debt away, how do we reconcile your last "Essentially we have a 'Treasury Pivot' with the Fed. continuing to try and offset inflation by killing 'consumer demand', which it is doing very successfully. ".
Are you saying that to satisfy option B, the FED is happy to let Inflation continue, but still dampen demand via a recession?
Mick
 

Exactly.



For those that didn't get the email, the Fed are going to recalculate CPI inflation using only 1 year's worth of data.

This is not a minor tweak. By doing so, CPI inflation will be 'shown' to be between 2% - 3% lower immediately. This will allow the Fed flexibility in either (a) declaring victory and cutting rates (the market's bet), (b) holding off any further rate hikes (the neutral rate) or (c) continuing to actually fight inflation by raising rates further and torching the economy.

I think (b). They will stop raising, but not cut rates. The Treasury will work the USD lower. Concurrently, oil will be attacked (price) as much as it can be. This will only hold until June/July when 'actual inflation' blows the economy up and they are forced to cut.

With Debt/GDP still sitting at 128, it is (a) default or (b) inflate.

They will inflate. But they are trying to hide that they are inflating, at least to Joe Sixpac. Imagine if everyone bought gold/silver with their increasingly worthless fiat. The LBMA and COMEX are already being stretched to breaking point by the tiny numbers already buying physical.

Putin when he digitalised gold a couple of weeks ago, put the nail in SWIFT and by extension USD. The destruction of USTs via oil values will end the USD hegemony.

When it blows...it will simply blow. Gold will reprice overnight by thousands of dollars.

jog on
duc
 
As I said in this post four days ago, there are some headwinds ready to slow Gold's advance to $3000.

I had hoped that Gold would tippy toe just above $USD2000 this coming week and as I said in the post above I was about to lighten and wait for a retracement, before entering again full on.

It would appear that I was wrong and the pullback was from $USD1950.

"Such is Life" as Ned said..

This fall in POG imo is most certainly due to the rise in BTC by 50% since Jan. 9th, from just on four weeks ago, most likely led by my good friend Kevin O'Leary and other US funds and speculators. And good on them if they can win back their huge losses.

However I don't think they will as there are too many "colourful" actors involved in the BTC mania.

It is quite exciting nonetheless. A rethink is required and I have the Rethink Committee here at the hotel working 16/24 on it.

I have supplemented their IT and Miscellaneous Budget with some Free Great Northern Zero and Red Biros from down the road at Officeworks ( owned by WES ), just in case.

Let us see what next week brings.

gg
 
GG next week. A new week and another dollar, perhaps!!!!!
 
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