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Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Kauri
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Yes, looks like it may try to test the lower channel support around $645???
I'm getting a bit uneasy again with the 'other' market (DOW etc) getting ahead of itself (400 pts last week?) which may drag gold down with it again if it decides to take a breather. Aligning itself with the DOW - weird. Always interesting!
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chops_a_must
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Looks like it may have broken away for now Doc. Temporary perhaps? Possibly realigning itself with oil again. Rising gold has been bad for the DJI lately. Now it's faced with rising gold on a falling DOW, it could become catastrophic if something breaks.
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Amazing how 1 report changes things. I'm thinking the US property meltdown may be that X factor that breaks the back of the US economy. The reports showed 'surprise' when the new home sales figures came in below forecast. What planet are these economists on?. This week looks like a double top in the DOW if the rest of the reports dissapoint. A scenario maybe - reports are worse than expected, market tanks again, short term weakness in gold, Bernanke lowers interest rates, $US tumbles, reduced buying of US debt intruments, gold takes off?
For OZ, short term a high chance of an interest rate increase - $AU appreciates, negating US gold price increases. Long term, interest rates start to bite, consumers reduce consuming, $AU falls, AU gold price increases?.
Sean K
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Sailors released - oil down - gold up. What?
What's happened to the oil-inflation-gold connection? I give up on understanding financial markets. Almost.
Must be something else at work right this second. China buying perhaps?
What's happened to the oil-inflation-gold connection? I give up on understanding financial markets. Almost.
Must be something else at work right this second. China buying perhaps?
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This may be of interest
Cheers
GFMS Gold Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher
Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007
By Chris Shaw
Industry consultants GFMS have released their Gold Survey for 2007, the document's key theme being the potential for the gold price to continue pushing higher both this year and into 2008.
According to group chairman Philip Klapwijk, the 2007 outlook is such the record average gold price mark of US$614.50 per ounce set back in 1980 is likely to fall this year, while it wouldn't surprise if the market was able to move above its 2006 high of US$725 per ounce.
While moving beyond the record high of US$850 per ounce is a more difficult proposition, Klapwijk sees no reason for the metal to not post further gains into 2008.
The group expects investors to be at the forefront of the push to higher prices, even though the data for 2006 is not suggestive of such a trend. As Klapwijk notes, the official figures show investment in the sector actually fell last year from 2006 levels, official figures indicating total world investment in the sector was 743 tonnes. In volume terms this equates to a fall of 13% but in value terms it represents an increase of 14% to US$14.4 billion. As Klapwijk points out, the market is now a new structure as it has moved from a buy side only structure to a more two-sided model and total investment shows little sign of falling.
Nor should it in the group's view, as the reasons why investors would be positive on the gold price outlook remain the same – the potential for a weaker US dollar and a slowdown in the US economy, the threat of higher inflation and increased geopolitical tensions.
Supporting this is an argument based on weight of money, as the group notes total non-commercial investment across a number of commodities stood at only US$138 billion as at the end of last year, meaning there is scope for this to increase significantly going forward. Helping here is the fact central banks aligned to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) are not meeting their annual sale quotas, which is helping to tighten the market.
Also tightening the market is ongoing producer de-hedging, which the group points out quadrupled last year to more than 370 tonnes, 76% of which occurred in the first half of the year. While matching last year's level appears a difficult task, GFMS expects de-hedging to remain at elevated levels through the year with a total of more than 300 tonnes considered likely.
The impact of this de-hedging is significant, as the group notes last year's numbers mean the total of outstanding forward sales, loans and hedges against options positions stand at 1,364 tonnes, a level not seen since 1994.
Looking more closely at the supply side presents a similarly bullish picture, as the group notes global production fell by 3% last year to a 10-year low. At the same time global cash costs pushed higher, increasing by around US$45 per ounce on the back of higher energy and labour costs and consumables charges.
Asia accounted for the largest portion of the decline, this despite China lifting production by around 8%. More modest falls were recorded in North American and African output, while Oceania production was down by 21 tonnes. This year should see something of a reversal, the group expecting a 1-2% increase in total production as new mines come on stream and production is ramped-up at existing operations.
The fall in output was matched by official sector sales that halved to around 328 tonnes, the lowest level since 1997. While the large central banks played the major role in this decline, the change from seller to buyer by a number of smaller central banks also contributed. Offsetting these supply declines was a 25% jump in scrap metal sales, which rose to more than 1,100 tonnes.
The demand side of the equation, and in particular the demand from the jewellery sector, suffered through 2006 as the market adjusted to higher prices. Total jewellery fabrication fell 16% or 428 tonnes to 2,280 tonnes, a 15-year low. It was a tale of two halves though, as 1H06 fabrication was down 30% and 2H06 posted a small increase. Other fabrication demand actually increased by around 10% in 2006.
The largest falls in terms of jewellery demand came in key markets such as India and Turkey that are traditionally price sensitive, while demand in the US was also lower. Higher prices also drove down buying from the Middle East, helped by higher levels of scrap supply. GFMS estimates the total volume of old jewellery being scrapped increased by 112 tonnes or 34% year-on-year, while in Saudi Arabia local scrap volumes rose 44% year-on-year.
The group suggests with its positive outlook for the gold price jewellery demand could contract further this year, but any decline is unlikely to be as big in percentage terms as was the case last year.
Cheers
GFMS Gold Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher
Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007
By Chris Shaw
Industry consultants GFMS have released their Gold Survey for 2007, the document's key theme being the potential for the gold price to continue pushing higher both this year and into 2008.
According to group chairman Philip Klapwijk, the 2007 outlook is such the record average gold price mark of US$614.50 per ounce set back in 1980 is likely to fall this year, while it wouldn't surprise if the market was able to move above its 2006 high of US$725 per ounce.
While moving beyond the record high of US$850 per ounce is a more difficult proposition, Klapwijk sees no reason for the metal to not post further gains into 2008.
The group expects investors to be at the forefront of the push to higher prices, even though the data for 2006 is not suggestive of such a trend. As Klapwijk notes, the official figures show investment in the sector actually fell last year from 2006 levels, official figures indicating total world investment in the sector was 743 tonnes. In volume terms this equates to a fall of 13% but in value terms it represents an increase of 14% to US$14.4 billion. As Klapwijk points out, the market is now a new structure as it has moved from a buy side only structure to a more two-sided model and total investment shows little sign of falling.
Nor should it in the group's view, as the reasons why investors would be positive on the gold price outlook remain the same – the potential for a weaker US dollar and a slowdown in the US economy, the threat of higher inflation and increased geopolitical tensions.
Supporting this is an argument based on weight of money, as the group notes total non-commercial investment across a number of commodities stood at only US$138 billion as at the end of last year, meaning there is scope for this to increase significantly going forward. Helping here is the fact central banks aligned to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) are not meeting their annual sale quotas, which is helping to tighten the market.
Also tightening the market is ongoing producer de-hedging, which the group points out quadrupled last year to more than 370 tonnes, 76% of which occurred in the first half of the year. While matching last year's level appears a difficult task, GFMS expects de-hedging to remain at elevated levels through the year with a total of more than 300 tonnes considered likely.
The impact of this de-hedging is significant, as the group notes last year's numbers mean the total of outstanding forward sales, loans and hedges against options positions stand at 1,364 tonnes, a level not seen since 1994.
Looking more closely at the supply side presents a similarly bullish picture, as the group notes global production fell by 3% last year to a 10-year low. At the same time global cash costs pushed higher, increasing by around US$45 per ounce on the back of higher energy and labour costs and consumables charges.
Asia accounted for the largest portion of the decline, this despite China lifting production by around 8%. More modest falls were recorded in North American and African output, while Oceania production was down by 21 tonnes. This year should see something of a reversal, the group expecting a 1-2% increase in total production as new mines come on stream and production is ramped-up at existing operations.
The fall in output was matched by official sector sales that halved to around 328 tonnes, the lowest level since 1997. While the large central banks played the major role in this decline, the change from seller to buyer by a number of smaller central banks also contributed. Offsetting these supply declines was a 25% jump in scrap metal sales, which rose to more than 1,100 tonnes.
The demand side of the equation, and in particular the demand from the jewellery sector, suffered through 2006 as the market adjusted to higher prices. Total jewellery fabrication fell 16% or 428 tonnes to 2,280 tonnes, a 15-year low. It was a tale of two halves though, as 1H06 fabrication was down 30% and 2H06 posted a small increase. Other fabrication demand actually increased by around 10% in 2006.
The largest falls in terms of jewellery demand came in key markets such as India and Turkey that are traditionally price sensitive, while demand in the US was also lower. Higher prices also drove down buying from the Middle East, helped by higher levels of scrap supply. GFMS estimates the total volume of old jewellery being scrapped increased by 112 tonnes or 34% year-on-year, while in Saudi Arabia local scrap volumes rose 44% year-on-year.
The group suggests with its positive outlook for the gold price jewellery demand could contract further this year, but any decline is unlikely to be as big in percentage terms as was the case last year.
chops_a_must
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Sailors released - oil down - gold up. What?
What's happened to the oil-inflation-gold connection? I give up on understanding financial markets. Almost.
Must be something else at work right this second. China buying perhaps?
The USD is tanking. I think that is the story.
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Another perspective
Gold Breaks Out Against The Odds
Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007
By Greg Peel
Writing in his daily newsletter yesterday, US trading guru Dennis Gartman stated:
"Should spot gold trade upward through $665, the bears on gold will find themselves in a rather awkward position, for at that point gold will be coming up through the top of "The Box" that marked the 50-62% retracement of the previous break. The gold bears have pinned their hopes on making certain that spot gold does not trade upward through that resistance. We've no doubt but that they will try again, later in North American dealing, to push gold downward ; but if they fail this time, and if gold should move upward through this resistance, going into the long weekend the bears may find that it is easier to accept defeat than to try to press their case."
Spot on. Gold broke through last night and subsequently rallied over US$10 to close at US$673.80/oz – a jump of 1.5%.
The breakout was achieved despite the news that Iran would provide Britain with a generous Easter present (in keeping with Islamic tradition after the recent marking of Mohammed's birthday) in forgiving the 15 captured British sailors and marines and handing them over unharmed. An easing of tensions should otherwise have seen the gold price ease as well but this was not the case.
The crude price did not react too strongly either, falling only marginally due to news that inventories in the US were not as expected. But what really sparked gold's rally were the latest US economic data, which this time were poor. It's a bit of a day to day proposition, this good/bad data thing, but it appears the general trend is for a weaker US dollar.
Last night brought us the Institute of Supply Management's index reading for March. Anything over 50% means the US economy is expanding, and below 50%, contracting. The result came in at 52.4%, down from 54.3% in February. Economist consensus was for a rise to 55%. The data suggests that while the US economy is still growing, its growth is slowing.
Backing up the ISM data was the release of factory orders for February. These rose by 1.0%, but this was considered a negative as economist consensus had been for a 1.9% rise.
Subsequent weakness in the US dollar was thus enough to fire up gold, and once the top of the trading range was breached the sellers evaporated. Buyers would have also been heartened by yesterday's release of the annual Gold Fields Mineral Services report for 2007, which continues to predict a stronger gold price and likely breaching of the previous US$725/oz high some time soon. Despite a fall in the volume of gold investment and in jewellery off-take, demand is still strong in US dollar terms. Full coverage of the GFMS report appears in yesterday's article "GFMS Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher".
Despite the positive report from GFMS, what is even more remarkable in gold's capacity to break out once more is the fact that once again central banks have been hammering the metal.
Blanchard & Co report that last week again saw heavy selling from European banks – some 17.5 tonnes to be precise – bringing the three week total of sales to 45.5 tonnes. To put this in context, the previous three weeks saw total sales of only 7 tonnes.
When central banks sold 50 tonnes into the market in September 2006, the gold price fell nearly US$30/oz. When 75 tonnes were sold in May 2006, the price fell more than US$100/oz.
Blanchard suspects France is the major seller, given Germany has indicated it will not sell and Spain and Portugal have shut up shop following massive sales last year. If so, France will be coming close to fulfilling its sales allotment for the year (ending September) under the Washington Agreement. With that obstacle removed, market observers believe there will be little holding back the gold price given Washington Agreement sales are expected to fall well short of the total 2007 allotment as they did in 2006.
Blanchard further notes we are heading into another peak demand season for the metal.
Will we get there this time?
Gold Breaks Out Against The Odds
Source: FN Arena News - April 05 2007
By Greg Peel
Writing in his daily newsletter yesterday, US trading guru Dennis Gartman stated:
"Should spot gold trade upward through $665, the bears on gold will find themselves in a rather awkward position, for at that point gold will be coming up through the top of "The Box" that marked the 50-62% retracement of the previous break. The gold bears have pinned their hopes on making certain that spot gold does not trade upward through that resistance. We've no doubt but that they will try again, later in North American dealing, to push gold downward ; but if they fail this time, and if gold should move upward through this resistance, going into the long weekend the bears may find that it is easier to accept defeat than to try to press their case."
Spot on. Gold broke through last night and subsequently rallied over US$10 to close at US$673.80/oz – a jump of 1.5%.
The breakout was achieved despite the news that Iran would provide Britain with a generous Easter present (in keeping with Islamic tradition after the recent marking of Mohammed's birthday) in forgiving the 15 captured British sailors and marines and handing them over unharmed. An easing of tensions should otherwise have seen the gold price ease as well but this was not the case.
The crude price did not react too strongly either, falling only marginally due to news that inventories in the US were not as expected. But what really sparked gold's rally were the latest US economic data, which this time were poor. It's a bit of a day to day proposition, this good/bad data thing, but it appears the general trend is for a weaker US dollar.
Last night brought us the Institute of Supply Management's index reading for March. Anything over 50% means the US economy is expanding, and below 50%, contracting. The result came in at 52.4%, down from 54.3% in February. Economist consensus was for a rise to 55%. The data suggests that while the US economy is still growing, its growth is slowing.
Backing up the ISM data was the release of factory orders for February. These rose by 1.0%, but this was considered a negative as economist consensus had been for a 1.9% rise.
Subsequent weakness in the US dollar was thus enough to fire up gold, and once the top of the trading range was breached the sellers evaporated. Buyers would have also been heartened by yesterday's release of the annual Gold Fields Mineral Services report for 2007, which continues to predict a stronger gold price and likely breaching of the previous US$725/oz high some time soon. Despite a fall in the volume of gold investment and in jewellery off-take, demand is still strong in US dollar terms. Full coverage of the GFMS report appears in yesterday's article "GFMS Survey Suggests Price Should Go Higher".
Despite the positive report from GFMS, what is even more remarkable in gold's capacity to break out once more is the fact that once again central banks have been hammering the metal.
Blanchard & Co report that last week again saw heavy selling from European banks – some 17.5 tonnes to be precise – bringing the three week total of sales to 45.5 tonnes. To put this in context, the previous three weeks saw total sales of only 7 tonnes.
When central banks sold 50 tonnes into the market in September 2006, the gold price fell nearly US$30/oz. When 75 tonnes were sold in May 2006, the price fell more than US$100/oz.
Blanchard suspects France is the major seller, given Germany has indicated it will not sell and Spain and Portugal have shut up shop following massive sales last year. If so, France will be coming close to fulfilling its sales allotment for the year (ending September) under the Washington Agreement. With that obstacle removed, market observers believe there will be little holding back the gold price given Washington Agreement sales are expected to fall well short of the total 2007 allotment as they did in 2006.
Blanchard further notes we are heading into another peak demand season for the metal.
Will we get there this time?
Gold poised for record run
By Kevin Morrison
Published: April 4 2007 13:06 | FT.com
Gold prices could exceed last year’s 26 year high of $730 an ounce within the next 12 months due to a weaker dollar, rising geopolitical tensions and an investment led rally, according to the annual survey by GFMS, the metals consultancy.
GFMS said given the general favourable backdrop and the still low level of participation form institutional and private inventors in most countries, there remains considerable upside potential for gold even as the current rally enters its seventh year.
“GFMS’s view is that an investor led rally into at least the mid-$700s is indeed probable over the next year or so,” it said.
“The strength of the gold price in 2007-to date, the continued moving up of the floor at which physical buying kicks in to support the metal and a further, albeit smaller, decline in gold supply is also expected to boost investor confidence in the yellow metal,” it said.
Although, GFMS predicts further price growth, underlying physical demand for the metal continues to wane as higher prices deter jewellery buyers.
GFMS said global jewellery demand fell to 2,280 tonnes last year in more than 15 years, and 16 per cent below last year and 30 per cent down from its peak in 1997. This decline was partly offset by a small increase in demand from the electronics sector.
While physical consumption of the metal has weakened, investment demand increased to a record 640 tonnes, up almost eight per cent on the year and almost double the amount seen in 2003.
But a further fall in mine production combined with reduction selling from central banks of their gold reserves led to a decline in gold supply last year by five per cent. GFMS said global mine output fell three per cent to 2,471 tonnes, a 10 year low. The biggest declines were seen in the traditional gold mining producers South Africa, United States, Australia and Canada.
Despite the increase in gold selling prices, mine production costs continued to rise to an average of $317 an ounce last year, up $45 from 2005. Higher energy and labour charges were behind the rise.
However, gold scrap supply gained 25 per cent to 1,108 tonnes last year, driven by higher gold prices. Scrap gold accounted for 28 per cent of total gold supplies last year.
The gold price averaged $603.77 a troy ounce last year, up 36 per cent on the previous year, and the second-largest annual average after 1980’s record of $614.50. Gold prices hit a peak of $730 in May, the highest level since the record of $850 in January 1980.
Gold also appreciated in other currencies too, with a 34 per cent gain in South African Rand prices, a 21 per cent rise in the yen gold price and a 8.7 per cent advance in the Euro gold price.
While the gold price’s gain was a strong in a historical context, it was relatively mild compared with other metal price moves last year. The average annual silver price gained 60 per cent, palladium was up 59 per cent, zinc rose 137 per cent, copper 83 per cent and nickel 65 per cent.
[ The big issue is not whether gold goes up this year or next. It is how high and how long ]
By Kevin Morrison
Published: April 4 2007 13:06 | FT.com
Gold prices could exceed last year’s 26 year high of $730 an ounce within the next 12 months due to a weaker dollar, rising geopolitical tensions and an investment led rally, according to the annual survey by GFMS, the metals consultancy.
GFMS said given the general favourable backdrop and the still low level of participation form institutional and private inventors in most countries, there remains considerable upside potential for gold even as the current rally enters its seventh year.
“GFMS’s view is that an investor led rally into at least the mid-$700s is indeed probable over the next year or so,” it said.
“The strength of the gold price in 2007-to date, the continued moving up of the floor at which physical buying kicks in to support the metal and a further, albeit smaller, decline in gold supply is also expected to boost investor confidence in the yellow metal,” it said.
Although, GFMS predicts further price growth, underlying physical demand for the metal continues to wane as higher prices deter jewellery buyers.
GFMS said global jewellery demand fell to 2,280 tonnes last year in more than 15 years, and 16 per cent below last year and 30 per cent down from its peak in 1997. This decline was partly offset by a small increase in demand from the electronics sector.
While physical consumption of the metal has weakened, investment demand increased to a record 640 tonnes, up almost eight per cent on the year and almost double the amount seen in 2003.
But a further fall in mine production combined with reduction selling from central banks of their gold reserves led to a decline in gold supply last year by five per cent. GFMS said global mine output fell three per cent to 2,471 tonnes, a 10 year low. The biggest declines were seen in the traditional gold mining producers South Africa, United States, Australia and Canada.
Despite the increase in gold selling prices, mine production costs continued to rise to an average of $317 an ounce last year, up $45 from 2005. Higher energy and labour charges were behind the rise.
However, gold scrap supply gained 25 per cent to 1,108 tonnes last year, driven by higher gold prices. Scrap gold accounted for 28 per cent of total gold supplies last year.
The gold price averaged $603.77 a troy ounce last year, up 36 per cent on the previous year, and the second-largest annual average after 1980’s record of $614.50. Gold prices hit a peak of $730 in May, the highest level since the record of $850 in January 1980.
Gold also appreciated in other currencies too, with a 34 per cent gain in South African Rand prices, a 21 per cent rise in the yen gold price and a 8.7 per cent advance in the Euro gold price.
While the gold price’s gain was a strong in a historical context, it was relatively mild compared with other metal price moves last year. The average annual silver price gained 60 per cent, palladium was up 59 per cent, zinc rose 137 per cent, copper 83 per cent and nickel 65 per cent.
[ The big issue is not whether gold goes up this year or next. It is how high and how long ]
Sean K
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Why bean? The only slightly more detailed analysis done above indicates it's going up. What's your theory?
Gold gets its glitter back
http://transcripts.businessday.co.za/cgi-bin/transcripts/t-showtranscript.pl?1175734036
http://transcripts.businessday.co.za/cgi-bin/transcripts/t-showtranscript.pl?1175734036
I follow several people that give analysis. One such person is Jeff Kern who updates every three or so weeks on 321gold. He has his own subscription site. I do subscribe to his site however know his system (partly) and have daily data for about 20 odd years on the index he uses. That index has risen for the last 6 days could rise another day but when it drops his indexes will sell (however I don't think they are on a buy signal). Also gold has risen for last 5 days...His indexes and things are a bit more complicated to explain I do not understand them fully.
However I am not IN. will I be right in what I have said based on my interpretation of his last report. and on the number of days gold and the indexhe follows has risen.
We will find out in the next few days.
The other ones I follow use HUI and XAU and they are both a critical levels.
The other thing is is the DOW going up to make a double TOP..
If the US market does go down. I also Know that gold and silver shares will go as well.
So I may note enter the gold and silver market for a few weeks.
Time will tell if I am wrong and also maybe anyone who is serious investing in Gold should look at his site.
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i think a price rise to 900 - 1000 us in the next 6 - 12 months is not out of the question.
there have recently been many posts in this thread on fundamental reasons behind a likely future rise in the price of gold. these pretty much sum up my reasonings behind a gold price advance to a tee, so i thought id add a basic chart.
spot price recently broke out of a triangle chart formation. triangle formations after an advance are usually a bullish sign and represent continuation patterns
also, after a long period of consolidation, price movements tend to be more
extreme / convincing.
a couple of my favourite larger gold plays are lhg and ogd. these companies are in a fantastic position to benefit from an increase in the price of gold, and also offer great leverage.
ogd has hedging in place and has been overlooked imo. hedge books are due to be lightened considerably in the next few years.
lhg is in a fantastic position to take advantage of a rise in gold price. The main risk i can see is a natural disaster due to mine location. lhg have effectively cut costs by up to 30 million per year thanks to a geothermal plant. This savings amount shall increase as production costs continue to rise(its all relative), and lhg shall look a more attractive play as its competitors are forced to incur these cost increases in production. (think of it as lhg hedging a potion of their production costs at considerably lower prices)
bean: id like to hear something a little more in depth to support your views. i always like to hear both sides of the story so to speak, but you have so far failed to offer a real explanation.
there have recently been many posts in this thread on fundamental reasons behind a likely future rise in the price of gold. these pretty much sum up my reasonings behind a gold price advance to a tee, so i thought id add a basic chart.
spot price recently broke out of a triangle chart formation. triangle formations after an advance are usually a bullish sign and represent continuation patterns
also, after a long period of consolidation, price movements tend to be more
extreme / convincing.
a couple of my favourite larger gold plays are lhg and ogd. these companies are in a fantastic position to benefit from an increase in the price of gold, and also offer great leverage.
ogd has hedging in place and has been overlooked imo. hedge books are due to be lightened considerably in the next few years.
lhg is in a fantastic position to take advantage of a rise in gold price. The main risk i can see is a natural disaster due to mine location. lhg have effectively cut costs by up to 30 million per year thanks to a geothermal plant. This savings amount shall increase as production costs continue to rise(its all relative), and lhg shall look a more attractive play as its competitors are forced to incur these cost increases in production. (think of it as lhg hedging a potion of their production costs at considerably lower prices)
bean: id like to hear something a little more in depth to support your views. i always like to hear both sides of the story so to speak, but you have so far failed to offer a real explanation.
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CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Gold (jun07) is trading above 680 for the second time in less than 24 hrs. I've noticed that Hong Kong is usually subdued in trading, but today its pretty active. Anyone notice this about the HK x?
Cheers,
Cheers,
bean: id like to hear something a little more in depth to support your views. i always like to hear both sides of the story so to speak, but you have so far failed to offer a real explanation.
The gold index I mentioned USERX closed up last night 7 days straight. The DOW closed up last night 7 days straight. I see a correlation not between gold and oil I see the gold stock and the DOW. The DOW appears to be ( A) forming a broadening top or (B) making a double TOP. And if it is Stocks that includes gold stocks as well will be falling and the price of gold will fall as well. As people move into bonds and cash. Then we may see money move in to gold and yes $850 to $1000 this year.
The other thing is US gold stocks are struggling to break out. They do not appear to be really believing this rally in gold as yet.
Yes that gold indec has move up but only 5% in 7 days A true breakout it would do that in one day.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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I hear that Gold is a safe haven when the US dollar is in the dumps.
But don't quote me!
:
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The planets are aligning for gold - maybe the last chance for a once in a generation event, soon.
Central bank sales fail to curb gold price, instead some central banks are accumulating,
Fiat money creation out of control - US @ 10% per year, China @ 20%
Geopolitical tensions in the middle east - nothing new here
Diversification away from the $US - usually if a country starts a rumour that they want to be paid in Euro's they soon receive a call from the US military, just ask Saddam, now it's Iran's turn.
The $US is the main actor, getting ready to take it's final curtain call.
Trade war between the US & China - indicates the US is desperate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to a five-week high Tuesday, as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a slide in the U.S. dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery settled up $4.60, or 0.7%, at $681.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a high of $686.80 in intraday trading, the highest price seen for that contract since Feb. 28.
"The U.S. currency took another hit this morning after overnight data showed a widening (actually a doubling) Chinese trade surplus," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Bullion was also bolstered by rising crude oil prices which showed strength after several sessions of significant weakness."
China's trade surplus widened to $46.4 billion from $23.3 billion. U.S. trade officials on Monday filed two cases against China before the World Trade Organization, charging that Beijing has failed to crack down on copyright violations on a wide range of products and maintaining barriers to trade in books, music, videos and movies.
"The gold market is being driven by investment demand, which saw another 6.15 tons of gold bought in the last two days," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Add to this the start up of more Indian gold exchange-traded funds and now an announcement of one to come in Japan."
"All these represent long-term buyers of gold, but they have set a pattern of being particularly vigorous buyers when the gold price rises," Phillips said.
"Global uncertainty as represented by the dollar, oil, China, political pressures, acts as a tide encouraging investment into gold, as an underlying driving force," he said.
Central bank sales fail to curb gold price, instead some central banks are accumulating,
Fiat money creation out of control - US @ 10% per year, China @ 20%
Geopolitical tensions in the middle east - nothing new here
Diversification away from the $US - usually if a country starts a rumour that they want to be paid in Euro's they soon receive a call from the US military, just ask Saddam, now it's Iran's turn.
The $US is the main actor, getting ready to take it's final curtain call.
Trade war between the US & China - indicates the US is desperate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to a five-week high Tuesday, as renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China and a slide in the U.S. dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery settled up $4.60, or 0.7%, at $681.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a high of $686.80 in intraday trading, the highest price seen for that contract since Feb. 28.
"The U.S. currency took another hit this morning after overnight data showed a widening (actually a doubling) Chinese trade surplus," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.
"Bullion was also bolstered by rising crude oil prices which showed strength after several sessions of significant weakness."
China's trade surplus widened to $46.4 billion from $23.3 billion. U.S. trade officials on Monday filed two cases against China before the World Trade Organization, charging that Beijing has failed to crack down on copyright violations on a wide range of products and maintaining barriers to trade in books, music, videos and movies.
"The gold market is being driven by investment demand, which saw another 6.15 tons of gold bought in the last two days," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Add to this the start up of more Indian gold exchange-traded funds and now an announcement of one to come in Japan."
"All these represent long-term buyers of gold, but they have set a pattern of being particularly vigorous buyers when the gold price rises," Phillips said.
"Global uncertainty as represented by the dollar, oil, China, political pressures, acts as a tide encouraging investment into gold, as an underlying driving force," he said.
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