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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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rederob said:
That's a fair comment, so how many of your shares have appreciated more than 200% in the past 5 years?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean, gold hasn't returned that in the last 5 years, some gold stocks have but to me that's a different discussion, if one is good enough to find a solid long term Investment in a gold company all power to them.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

I just did a 2 min Google but I thought this site was kind of interesting
 
Physical and equities are different, but both can deliver long term returns.
The significant advantage of an equity is that substantially greater returns can be achieved in much less time than in holding physical.
The massive advantage of physical is that it's not going to go belly up.
Hedge your bets?
 
rederob said:
I won't go down sidetracks but just remind you that few sectors of industry are immune from going down the gurgler or being taken over.
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Which is my point.

Particularly an industry that has new entrants when its product is at 'high' prices. Of course knowing when a price is high is another issue altogether.

But it would seem that we are in agreement here.

jog on
duc
 
1. As this is a forum for mostly trading equities my basis for purchasing a

1(a) gold stock to "hold" is based foremost on it being a producer with a reserve/resource base that will see it through no less than the next 5 years at an ASIC substantially lower than spot.

2. In simple English it means choosing a mature mining operation that, except for ongoing exploration costs, is always in the black.

3. I no longer buy gold equities that are speculative.


1. This forum is: this thread is gold as a commodity.

1(a) That is not so easy, unless you are looking at quite historic data, which rather means the share price has (probably) appreciated substantially.

2. Earnings are always a margin between costs and selling prices. Just because a selling price (gold) is far above the book entry (cost basis) for reserves, does that mean that margins cannot be compressed. For example: energy costs (already partially discussed), labour costs, tax rates, price controls, tariffs, accidents, fraud, excess leverage, etc. 'Always' is a very long time.

3. All equities are speculative. Some are simply more speculative than others.

jog on
duc
 
To be clear.
 
Gold Bugs Index:


versus US Dollar Index:


Note that POG has been rising in recent months while the dollar has been falling.
However, for those looking for a strong correlation, it exists from mid-2016.
If you find that correlation helpful, so be it - I do not.
 
Was just about to post again on gold as a result of US pre-emptive actions in Iraq over the weekend when POG jumped over $30/oz to a shade under $1590 after opening.
Will hold off for a while to see how this progresses.
 
rederob said:
Was just about to post again on gold as a result of US pre-emptive actions in Iraq over the weekend when POG jumped over $30/oz to a shade under $1590 after opening.
Click to expand...

Anyone building Short positions over the last couple of months has been taken to the cleaners

If the Gold chart were a Stock we'd be calling blue sky … Steep rise and big gap though … That gap will have to fill surely? If it doesn't, we might have to wear a bump hat and an oxygen mask
 
Trump has certainly put a cat among the pigeons, as usual.
 
It certainly took off again this morning:

POG is setting a regular series of recent highs (just ticked over $1598) following on from the last bull run around 10 years ago.
 
The spike this morning was due to Iran striking the joint US-Iraqi air base at Ain al-Assad, in retailiation to the US assassination of Iran's General, Soleimani.
It is doubtful this is other than the beginning of something that can spill more widely across the region, so POG is likely to remain high for some time to come, and spike as attacks get more severe in consequence.
 
Just for the record, $1600 has now been taken out:

And there I was earlier this morning contemplating how wonderful it was to watch paint dry on my walls.
 
The "gap" after yesterday's massive spike has now been filled.

POG's retrace is most welcome as I do not like seeing parabolic price rises given the fall tends to be hard and fast.
 
Last edited:
rederob said:
Sorry, I forgot how closely the Iranians were watching that chart and had to attack an airbase to spur the POG.
Click to expand...


Not the Iranians old chap, just those that consider Gold and Treasuries as interchangeable investments competing for those (same) investment dollars.


jog on
duc
 
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