Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[BlindSquirrel]

$1500...



Perhaps I should stop faffing around chasing pips...

 

[rederob]

With gold price going to breach $1500 I will tell my wife to make her jewelleries in this week itself with her flying to India tomorrow. Hope the breach does not happen in this week

Nice overnight lift in POG - up some US$22 to $1340, which places it within a whisker of its $1350 breakout level.
In AUD terms POG at $1870 is blasting above its all time high of a fortnight ago around the $1850 mark.
Let's see how much follow through there is before breaking for drinks.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

wheeee!

Currently 1346USD/oz. Probably about due for a breather (nojinx nojinx nojinx)

 

[rederob]

In AUD terms POG at $1870 is blasting above its all time high of a fortnight ago around the $1850 mark.
Let's see how much follow through there is before breaking for drinks.

6 hours later and another AUD$8 added - to $1878.
And up US$6 to $1346.
Am looking for a reason, but cannot find any....
Anyone else with a clue?

 

[BlindSquirrel]

(nojinx nojinx nojinx)

Dammit. I got out with a small profit on the pull back. I hope to catch the next pop.

 

[Ann]

6 hours later and another AUD$8 added - to $1878.
And up US$6 to $1346.
Am looking for a reason, but cannot find any....
Anyone else with a clue?

Just my thoughts Rob, the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future. I may be wrong, I am not an economist, try as I might!

 

[rederob]

Just my thoughts Rob, the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future. I may be wrong, I am not an economist, try as I might!

Yes, there are definitely movements due to exchange rates.
However, I look for things which are atypical, and this week is delivering in spades.
AUD$1880 breached as I type, while POG in USD has dropped $10 since I last posted. It's one thing to head in different directions, and it's quite another when the the divergence is so pronounced.

 

[Ann]

Yes, there are definitely movements due to exchange rates.
However, I look for things which are atypical, and this week is delivering in spades.
AUD$1880 breached as I type, while POG in USD has dropped $10 since I last posted. It's one thing to head in different directions, and it's quite another when the the divergence is so pronounced.

It is basically a currency thing, Brexit is going to chuck a lot of unusual movement into things. It is going to really stuff around with the currency hedge funds plus flow on. If there are computer generated trading platforms programmed for a certain style, I can see them having seizures as there will be no human discretion. It is all a bit of fun. I just hang on whatever the next economic data brings on.

 

[rederob]

It is basically a currency thing, Brexit is going to chuck a lot of unusual movement into things. It is going to really stuff around with the currency hedge funds plus flow on. If there are computer generated trading platforms programmed for a certain style, I can see them having seizures as there will be no human discretion. It is all a bit of fun. I just hang on whatever the next economic data brings on.

I doubt Brexit makes any real difference to POG. It has been an ongoing issue for some time and whatever volatility it is causing or has caused will be insignificant.

 

[explod]

Basically the rise in gold amounts to the overall economic uncertainty atm and an increasing percentage of people buying gold to back up their portfolios.

Only have to scan today's paper to see things are getting worse atm, so in my view gold will just keep going up. Think there could be a bit of drop and consolidation in the next few days, but will be short lived IMV as word is spreading.

 

[Ann]

Basically the rise in gold amounts to the overall economic uncertainty atm and an increasing percentage of people buying gold to back up their portfolios.

Only have to scan today's paper to see things are getting worse atm, so in my view gold will just keep going up. Think there could be a bit of drop and consolidation in the next few days, but will be short lived IMV as word is spreading.

With all of gold's machinations I always refer back to my ancient quarterly POG that I have been watching since 2012. Currently is not in a complete period, that will happen at the end of March but so far it is still pretty much under the spell of the now looong term overhead resistance. So as much as everyone gets excited by gold, it is still 'meh' by my charts.

 

[Zaxon]

the Aussie dollar normally rises when gold rises and that tends to take the edge off the APOG (gold priced in Aussie $). I am thinking the A$ is falling because there may be a threat of an interest rate fall to stimulate the falling property problem in the near future. I may be wrong, I am not an economist

The Aussie dollar fell in response to China banning our coal.

 

[rederob]

With all of gold's machinations I always refer back to my ancient quarterly POG that I have been watching since 2012. Currently is not in a complete period, that will happen at the end of March but so far it is still pretty much under the spell of the now looong term overhead resistance. So as much as everyone gets excited by gold, it is still 'meh' by my charts.

That's fine if you work on such long time frames.
The signal for POG's present run north came on 11 October last year, and was reconfirmed on 20 December.
Translating that into buying local shares - as distinct from trading gold per se - could have led, for example, to about a 50% increase in price on a stock like RMS.
I dare say there are others, but that was my first look see.

 

[Porper]

Translating that into buying local shares - as distinct from trading gold per se - could have led, for example, to about a 50% increase in price on a stock like RMS.
I dare say there are others, but that was my first look see.

That's true, however this assumes you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. In the real world this doesn't happen...unless you get very lucky.

 

[rederob]

That's true, however this assumes you buy at the bottom and sell at the top. In the real world this doesn't happen...unless you get very lucky.

Not really, as I was making the distinction between clear signals in the gold price and mapping that back into an equity.
Had I looked at NCM and bought in on the 20 December gold price signal it would have been 10% higher than lows of several months earlier. In fact NCM's chart alone has been signalling that gold is in a strong uptrend - notice the regular upside "gaps" in price since last October.
Further, the trend in gold would (or more probably "will"), in my view, tend to run for several years so I don't see any need to sell gold equities for a good while.

 

[Porper]

Not really, as I was making the distinction between clear signals in the gold price and mapping that back into an equity.
Had I looked at NCM and bought in on the 20 December gold price signal it would have been 10% higher than lows of several months earlier. In fact NCM's chart alone has been signalling that gold is in a strong uptrend - notice the regular upside "gaps" in price since last October.
Further, the trend in gold would (or more probably "will"), in my view, tend to run for several years so I don't see any need to sell gold equities for a good while.

I focus on the XGD chart but more importantly the charts of the individual stocks themselves.

Disclosure: I hold NCM

I was stopped out of EVN yesterday but nowhere near a 50% gain unfortunately.

 

[Ann]

...and now a chart of the $XGD for all the gold bugs out there. There is a fully formed cup and handle pattern, just for fun I have done a swing trade calculation and it looks like the top will be around 8300 if it works out. It also appears it will be a triple top from back in April 2011 and November 2010, if it makes that level.

 

[rederob]

I focus on the XGD chart but more importantly the charts of the individual stocks themselves.
Disclosure: I hold NCM
I was stopped out of EVN yesterday but nowhere near a 50% gain unfortunately.

I don't like aggregators - my preference - as they hide too many sins.
The other issue with equities is that often the market runs blind on them until they report something significant.
I prefer the approach of looking at what drives the price of an equity as irrespective of any news, the equity's results are going to be largely predicated on that action.
AMI is a case in point. Its chart bears only a slight resemblance to the XGD chart. In fact, if I were to use XGD to guide an entry into AMI it would have actually signalled strong caution rather than a buy signal.

 

[explod]

There is bit in the following article but it provides good background on gold and to support the writers take.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/g...ault.aspx?mc_cid=768156b435&mc_eid=a09377a6d7

 

[Ann]

I have no idea if this is just pure bullsh!t or if there is something to it. This site tends to pick up on stuff very early and then eventually it is proven to be correct. However past successes are not future proof, so I just present it as simply a point of interest and will not enter into any discussion about its merits or not.

What's Up With Australia's 80 Tonnes Of Gold At The Bank Of England?
......................
1) What happened to Australia’s gold? What’s your opinion?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) claims to have 80 tonnes of gold bars stored in a bailment arrangement, in an allocated gold account, at the Bank of England vaults in London. Bailment means the Bank of England is custodian, and the RBA owns and has title to specific serial numbered gold bars.


However, there have never been any independent physical audits of this gold, which means that there is no way to verify the RBA’s claim that it has all the gold that it claims to have.


In 2013, the Bank of England allowed the RBA to do a partial audit of some of the claimed RBA gold holdings, but the results of this audit remain secret, and even after FOIA requests, the documents from this audit were blocked by both the Bank of England and the RBA and never released. This also raises a red flag....................................more