Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,237
- Reactions
- 8,484
1. we don't live in a world where there is just one labourer, and I didn't get rid of the current currency system in my example. I simply gave myself the global farmland and the other guy all the gold, the rest of the economy remains intact and the current money system is still in place.
2. the other guy wouldn't be spending his gold directly, every month he would just convert some to cash to feed himself and his private army he would need to defend his gold.
3. That's the other thing, people point out that other real assets have holding costs and risks, as if gold doesn't.
The fact is the more gold you have the more you have to pay to secure it, offcourse you can just hide it in your house for free, but then your risk goes through the roof,
4. So I don't think you can say gold has no risk, while also saying it has no holding costs.
Of course, you'll be able to point to those which have done well. But they survived. Perhaps your stock selection is sufficiently strong that you can jump from asset to asset successfully as they pass production peaks and move towards oblivion. If you do believe that, forget about gold!
Alternatively, why not pick a productive asset where you could lay a legally enforceable claim to the earnings from 1500BC. Are more than 10 still with us? Gold is. How about 200 years ago? How many still alive? The above concepts have already been discussed extensively in this thread. I'll refrain from adding further to it.
The chart below is a comparison of the performance of NASDAQ stocks as per the official index versus a reconstructed index based on companies that were actually present in 2008.
View attachment 59237
Why not compare against the actual the S&P ETF (SPY)?
That will smooth over the issue of survivorship
That may be very misleading, How is it accounting for mergers and acquisitions.
Is it simply completely excluding any company that wasn't present in 2008?
How is it accounting for take overs etc, Because when I have look into examples such as this in the past, eg someone once used the dow as an example, they simple compared a list of names and said " see half the names are missing " and they did their calculations as if all the missing names had just gone bankrupt and went to zero. When in fact the majority of missing names had either been taken over leading to a substantial pay out to shareholders ( not the "gone to zero" used in the calculation) or had merged with other companies.
If you haven't accounted for mergers and acquisitions, I think your example is worthless.
I am just trying to point out that the gold bugs are missing some very important investment fundamentals, and the gold bugs (along with other unsophisticated people) tend to think they have the whole investment and capital management thing worked out, "All you have to do is accumulate gold and you'll be rich".
Gold bugs (and probably novice forex, options and equity traders) seem to always have the loudest voice when they spread their misinformation, and I think it can be damaging to the people who listen to their nonsense.
AUSTRALIANS are “hoarding” an estimated $10 billion “under the bed” according to a landmark report revealing the extent of hard currency being removed from the nation’s cash economy.
No, not rich. If you have some gold then maybe you will retain some of your wealth when the crunch comes.
.
Over the years there have been a few most worthy gold 'detractors' on this thread who predict gold's demise only to silently slink off into the cyberspace when they are proved wrong
I am happy to ride out any bumps, I would rather a bumpy 10% return over the years than a steady 1% return after inflation.
What do you mean????
Gold is down over 30% from its high about 2 years ago, that's without generating any income. So it's failed as a store of wealth over that period, Failed as an inflation hedge and failed as an investment.
How have they been proved wrong?
and if this big crunch fails to come, and the global economy just keeps slowly recovering, even the gold bugs will slowly lose faith and gold will drift side ways like it did for 20 years in the 80's and 90's failing even its most basic job of being an inflation hedge.
Have an objective look at the 13 year gold chart and look at the mean,
it's preserving money against the ravages of inflation.
I don't have the data for Disney. But I do have it for Lehman, Napster, ....
and if this big crunch fails to come, and the global economy just keeps slowly recovering, even the gold bugs will slowly lose faith and gold will drift side ways like it did for 20 years in the 80's and 90's failing even its most basic job of being an inflation hedge.
Recovering?? Have you had a look at the EU lately? Still thinking of their own QE as they slowly sink back into recession again. Unemployment - no recovery - even the US goose their figures, the real rate is north of 10%? China is slowing - they need 7% growth just to stand still....
Interest rates - a big fat zero for 6 years now - hardly saying a recovery is underway?
Take out the government portion of the GDP calcs and the US has essentially been in recession since 2000.
I guess as long as the CB's keep doing the QE forever it will appear that all is 'normal' again, for the average punter at least.
Your equities and property have been riding this QE wave, nothing more, and will revert to mean after overshooting when the confidence game comes undone under the burden of debt.
This is a structural deterioration in the mechanics of money.
well the most you could have lost investing in those companies was 100%, however the compounding affect of good productive asset means you can gain many 1000's% when an excellent stock is selected.
so a diverse basket of intelligently selected assets, will always outperform and cover any individual mistake where you lose 100%.
eg. if you own 11 stocks and 10 grow at 10% and 1 suffers a 100% loss, your portfolio doesn't suffer a loss, it holds its value. and if a few of them are top performers, you will smash the index and smash gold many times over.
I think your looking into things to far, every company i own reported increased profits last financial year. Infact disney reported more profit in the first 9months than they had in any 12 month period ever.
In my property rents are the highest ever, just did a rental increase actually.
Is the EU economy going to stop people buying capilano honey for breakfast? Are farmers going to stop buying fertilizer? Are people going to stop consuming disney media content and watching sports? Are people going to stop having hot showers? Or eating their sushi for lunch?
The answer is no, and as long as that's the case my portfolio will perform well over time, there is always negative things happening, last century there was 2 world wars, a nuclear arms race, energy shocks, rise and fall of communism, and many other things, but through out all of it it was a mistake to hold gold longterm,
Disneyland Paris - The struggling European resort had higher operating costs and lower attendance, hotel bookings and special event revenue.
So...if you happen to buy a portfolio of stocks that do well, you do well?
.
Everything looks easy in hindsight.
In aggregate, most people don't regard them as unintelligent
I guess the IQ test results are pending.
.Anyhow, my position in gold is that it is an alternative currency which has some industrial purposes and which is used as a store of wealth. To me, it is an alternative to USD deposits or EUR deposits
Your Disney thing relied on a few one-offs, namely a movie. And yes, the EU recession does stop people from buying things <shock horror>-
??
Do you think you will fit through the exit when everybody else tries to leave the party
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?