Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Hum Ann,
not that sure:
in the last 3 years at least POG peaks when the AUD falls:
View attachment 58995
Sorry the image is just crude cut and paste, but short term wise, I expect POG to give me some buffer when AUD falls;
a proxy for a currency edging of my cash
But I am not a gold bug, I know I get no interest, inflation is eating me alive and this is just an alternative to cash in the bank, taken at a time I see as potentially a low in POG
I used PMGOLD and USD as these are the two tools I use for my edging but indexes should be similar

Only since the Keynesian system began to manipulate the gold price in order to pretend everything is all okay out there.

It is worth noting that on every Monday morning this year (30 weeks) gold has abruptly dropped. Statistically this is about a one in 400 billion oddity. Highly manulated also around 8am and 12pm US time, for maximum exposure to main street media.

There are so many pieces to gold that one would need a book to explain it all. This thread a few years back contains most of it but myself and the other contributors have moved on as the only answer with gold is simple. That is, hold physical in your hand and do not hold or trade paper because the music on the US petro dollar is going to stop one day and it will become worthless as in the Weimar republic.

My last shout for the night too.

 

[skyQuake]

Only since the Keynesian system began to manipulate the gold price in order to pretend everything is all okay out there.

It is worth noting that on every Monday morning this year (30 weeks) gold has abruptly dropped. Statistically this is about a one in 400 billion oddity. Highly manulated also around 8am and 12pm US time, for maximum exposure to main street media.

There are so many pieces to gold that one would need a book to explain it all. This thread a few years back contains most of it but myself and the other contributors have moved on as the only answer with gold is simple. That is, hold physical in your hand and do not hold or trade paper because the music on the US petro dollar is going to stop one day and it will become worthless as in the Weimar republic.

My last shout for the night too.

I follow the aus gold euqities quite closely and I'm pretty sure the mon morn run is not as described.

Avg move in fact is 0.06% up, from Open to Noon (syd time)

x axis shows weeks, starting with 2nd Jan week.

 

[Stratanu]

Gold stays entrenched in its sideways range. Support moves to $1280, below which would warn of a move back to $1260 then $1240/30. Resistance moves to $1345/60, with $1366 expected to cap.

 

[explod]

I follow the aus gold euqities quite closely and I'm pretty sure the mon morn run is not as described.

Avg move in fact is 0.06% up, from Open to Noon (syd time)

x axis shows weeks, starting with 2nd Jan week.

View attachment 59004

Well it is, check out the first hour of each Monday, in fact to about September of last year.

It does sit on support established some four years or so ago but apart from that following chart action on gold is a waste of time.

 

[CanOz]

explod, sky has just presented facts and you continue with anecdotal...

if what youre saying is still true, you should buy the first hour and sell at noon!

 

[explod]

explod, sky has just presented facts and you continue with anecdotal...

if what youre saying is still true, you should buy the first hour and sell at noon!

My point is that gold is controlled by the banking cabal via derivatives and is therefore not a true market.

The same happens with other commodities too. The idea in the beginning was to create an orderly market but it became just too juicy for the big end of town to resist. Wheat for example is in very short supply due to drought and floods but is being pushed down so farmers entering contracts lower on the next harvest and the big middle guys will have a big Christmas party when up she goes later in the year.

Not having a go at your short term trading, just noting the bigger picture of "where gold is heading"

Have a good day

 

[CanOz]

My point is that gold is controlled by the banking cabal via derivatives and is therefore not a true market.

The same happens with other commodities too. The idea in the beginning was to create an orderly market but it became just too juicy for the big end of town to resist. Wheat for example is in very short supply due to drought and floods but is being pushed down so farmers entering contracts lower on the next harvest and the big middle guys will have a big Christmas party when up she goes later in the year.

Not having a go at your short term trading, just noting the bigger picture of "where gold is heading"

Have a good day

so you reply with more anecdotal evidense...

you should run you own hedge fund explod....you could call it the AOF...Anecdotal Opinion Fund

 

[explod]

so you reply with more anecdotal evidense...

you should run you own hedge fund explod....you could call it the AOF...Anecdotal Opinion Fund

The drop at 8 am EVERY single Monday is not anecdotal.

And have you heard of fundamentals.

 

[skyQuake]

Avg move = 0.004% down.
From Sept13 to now.

Data has been adjusted for daylight savings. ie First hour of trade only.



Raw data also attached:
View attachment golddata.xls

 

[CanOz]

Avg move = 0.004% down.
From Sept13 to now.

Data has been adjusted for daylight savings. ie First hour of trade only.

View attachment 59019

Raw data also attached:
View attachment 59020

skyquake, stop posting facts, we are clearly only speaking anecdotally...

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Mighty convenient time frame there

Does that include the dividends and rents from the US Housing and Shares?

Well the poster did stipulate - "it's been smashed by pretty much every other asset class over any time frame you choose" - and so I did choose my timeframe.

And no, it doesn't include all the fluffy bit's, just as they don't account for inflation adjusted real returns?

My point was that their asertion/opinion was not backed by facts - it was an observation?

All gold is doing now is going through the unloved (by the general investing public) stage after a multi year run up. If anything the reasons for holding gold now are even more relevant.

There's nothing in any technical analysis that wil tell you when the next war will break out or if a global virus contagion eg Ebola breaks out etc

The market manipulators have been caught red handed, finally, and so they suddenly start to extricate themselves from all manner of commodities markets before they get asked to 'please explain'. Not that anyone will go to jail - a couple of $Billion fine here and there paid for by their shareholders, only to be compensated with a share buy back funded by Free ZIRP Fed Funds and Loan Loss Reductions. There used to be Mark To Market.......and actually selling a product, not money shuffling...those that make things are not doing all that great, after you adjust for EPS before share buy backs ie like-for-like sales per free float equity.....

The general mass of humanity is vastley more educated these day's because of the information revolution which has exposed those who have in the past manipulated the system to their advantage behind a wall of secrecy. More and more people are working out that money is a ponzi scheme - it relies on the faith, or gullibility, of the person on the other side of the transaction to trust that it is actually worth something. The time is approaching when at least the $USD will be questioned about what they actually back it with, which essentially is IOU nothings?

Transfer your 'nothings' for 'somethings'??

 

[Value Collector]

Which asset class(s)? Which time frame? I don't think you have proven your assertion that gold is an mediocre store of value.

Even allowing for golds 'gold is finished' correction, it still 'smashes' pretty much every other asset class over my chosen time frame......which has now been going strong for the last 15 years .....

View attachment 58859

Lol, try again.

As always, your not factoring in the compounded rate of return from those asset classes, those asset classes generate cash flow, which can be used to purchase more of the asset class every 6months.

Try using accumulation indexes in your comparisons.

Eg, an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold after 7 years, where as 100 units of an index will probably have grown to 140 units of the index, so simply comparing the price of gold against the original 100 units gives a false rate of return, you not understanding this compounding effect shows you lack a basic understanding of investing.

 

[Value Collector]

Does that include the dividends and rents from the US Housing and Shares?

My point exactly, like most gold bugs, he is just plain ignoring the cash flow other asset classes provide.

They will speak gibberish about the multitude of fanciful reasons gold is superior, and how every thing else is going to zero, while completely ignoring constant flow of cash flow being generated by the various businesses and land holdings that make up the indexes.

 

[Value Collector]

Try using accumulation indexes in your comparisons.

The red and green is gold,

 

[radson]

Yeah I have a bar of PAMP gold in my safe. I bought it in January of this year. I have a look at it every now and then ...as its all shiny and stuff but alas it is still the same size and no little 4% baby pamps have yet to be born.

But apparently it is worth 2.1% more now than when I bought it. Well actually thats the Sell price, so if I compared the sell and buy spread ...I have gone back a bit I think.

 

[explod]

The usual Monday drop on the open is noted.

 

[DeepState]

The usual Monday drop on the open is noted.

The analysis provided is interesting but not significant, statistically, by a very large margin. Also, it is not statistically interesting from a hit rate perspective. Finally, a move of 0.004% on average is incapable of being systematically arbitraged in any case.

There is also a seasonal on the equity market on Fridays. This actually is statistically significant. However, it is also incapable of being arbitraged.

Nice one though.

 

[explod]

Down again on the open.

All 32 mondays of this year still intact.

They say gold is not money nor manipulated.

 

[Value Collector]

Down again on the open.

All 32 mondays of this year still intact.

They say gold is not money nor manipulated.

So what do you think that means?

How much cash have you made from this phenomena?

 

[explod]

So what do you think that means?

How much cash have you made from this phenomena?

Just a bit if an interest. Began trading shares in 1967, first trade on a thing called Exoil was a ripper.

Into silver coins these days, going to be worth a fortune soon if the world does not blow up of course.

So watching the gold shuffle of great interest.