Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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With tonight's initial jobless claims and retail sales due out in 41 minutes, i'm trying to pick which side will get hurt worse when the number prints....if the number prints bad then gold should spike higher into 1300. If the numbers are good then i think a few longs might get wasted....The market is heavy with new longs, most of the shorts have likely covered out now...down would be swift i reckon...
 
This can't be correct - bankers manipulating markets?? Getting closer now.......

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html

The London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it, researchers say.

Large price moves during the afternoon call were also overwhelmingly in the same direction: down. On days when the authors identified large price moves during the fix, they were downwards at least two-thirds of the time in six different years between 2004 and 2013. In 2010, large moves during the fix were negative 92 percent of the time, the authors found.
Click to expand...
 
Today's Winner Is Gold

Risk taking seems to be off the table today as everyone watches the potential conflict developing in the Ukraine. All of the major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 Index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are declining in tandem since the opening bell. Last week, it was reported that money from the small investor was pouring into the market. Did the small investor just buy another top in the stock market?

Not everything in the stock market is falling today, spot gold and gold mining stocks are rallying higher on the trading session. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) are trading higher by $2.89 to $130.51. This is a new four month high for the precious metal. When gold rallies it is usually a sign of inflation, or unstable stock market activity. Gold will often trade inversely to the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar Index verse the Japanese Yen). Day traders should watch for the GLD to have intra-day resistance around the $131.50 area. This level was the high pivot made on October 29th, 2013. Remember, old high pivot levels will become new resistance points. Either way, gold is the big winner so far today.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks
 
ok.
So it's had a run.
What it will do now is pretty critical!
Tomorrow obviously down due to fears abating on Russia.
How much of the run was extended as that built up?
How much was it simply a gold thing on say, China buying.
Are they still interested at this level? That is the question.
 
If you take a look at the Coppock indicator on a monthly chart for gold, it's on an uptrend. Compare the turn around in gold price to the copper price which, this week has, rather dramatically, reasserted that it remains in a down trend.
 
Re: AUD/CAD

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014.02.20 , according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1391.908.The price by reaching to the resistance ascending Channel edge has been stopped from more ascend and by forming a Shooting Star candlestick patterns( possibility of formation of a top price and changing price direction)and fixing of it by a descending candle has prepared the field for creating a top price and a descending trend.
Right now the price is under 5-day moving average( Dilay and h4 Time frame) and surmounts the supportive level of 1325.549 that shows the possibility of more descends in this currency pair.Stoch Indicator shows ascending trend of the next candles in this time frame, but because of not being in the same direction of daily(also weekly) time frame it is not so valid. According to the current condition the first warning for descending of price is breaking of the resistance level of 1334.496.xauusdh4.png
 
notting said:
Tomorrow obviously down due to fears abating on Russia.
How much of the run was extended as that built up?
How much was it simply a gold thing on say, China buying.
Are they still interested at this level? That is the question.
Click to expand...

Good points -

One thing I look at quite closely is the difference between the Shanghai price of gold and the spot price, and that for me is quite an important indicator of the appetite for gold in China.
What we’ve actually seen all throughout this move up in gold, before we had the sell off, was that spread was compressing, which to me suggests that the demand in China is slowing, and we have certainly see that through our physical volumes as well.
Volatility in China’s currency has made gold more expensive to import, with the yuan depreciating about 2.5 per cent against the US dollar this year.
Also what we have seen is a lot of the demand was front-loaded to last year. In 2013 there were record imports and record consumption of physical gold, and what happened to price last year really brought forward a lot of demand.
I can’t overemphasise the importance of looking at what demand in China is doing. At the moment I just don’t see them stepping into the market and supporting it, even at prices below $US1300 which is where we are now.
Markets will always overshoot, so I do see a bit of a risk of a further correction to $US1280 and even below before we see the Chinese come in and support the market.

ANZ is relatively bullish about the mid-term outlook for price of gold, forecasting it to rise to $US1450 an ounce by the end of the year.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-stop-us93c-20140328-35mgq.html#ixzz2xE584EyY
Click to expand...

Getting interesting as it heads to 1261 ish
 
No posts in here for 5 weeks?

Could be the last great buying opportunity in $AU terms?

From an exchange rate point of view you would have to wonder if the $AU is capped at .94 based purely on the deteriorating conditions in China, so would limit any "currency cap" on the AU price of gold. Which would leave just the US price as the "positive surprise variable" as a falling $AU will support the AU price?

The fact that both prices appear to be 'basing' around these levels and the fact that risk-on alternatives are peaking at records (and more importantly not backed by fundamentals) then gold is primed for another break out as the risk-off trade, and probably when the sheeples least expect it and the experts have yet again written it's obituary?

I've been topping up every time it trades in this range with 5oz's.........interesting times indeed.....

augold - Copy.JPG
 
Uncle Festivus said:
No posts in here for 5 weeks?

Could be the last great buying opportunity in $AU terms?

From an exchange rate point of view you would have to wonder if the $AU is capped at .94 based purely on the deteriorating conditions in China, so would limit any "currency cap" on the AU price of gold. Which would leave just the US price as the "positive surprise variable" as a falling $AU will support the AU price?

The fact that both prices appear to be 'basing' around these levels and the fact that risk-on alternatives are peaking at records (and more importantly not backed by fundamentals) then gold is primed for another break out as the risk-off trade, and probably when the sheeples least expect it and the experts have yet again written it's obituary?

I've been topping up every time it trades in this range with 5oz's.........interesting times indeed.....

View attachment 57949
Click to expand...

i bought today on the daily like the look of the base... just thinking about short term tops atm.
 
Hi Guys,

I haven't been here for some time, nothing much to say. I still don't have much to say since I first called a top to gold way, way back a couple of years ago, much to the negative howls of the faithful. I am still seeing a strong overhead on the quarterly chart which hasn't been broken and it is still giving me a negative call for gold.

My original lines are still on my quarterly chart so perhaps when this quarter is over at the end of June I will revisit gold and see if the overhead is still intact and upload a chart.

In the meantime, gold does not appear to be the best investment for positive returns at this stage until there is a break in the long term overhead resistance on the quarterly chart.

Cheers and good trading

Ann
 
Very narrow trading range over the past week cant remember anything like this in the gold chart for ........ not suggesting its bullish but.
Barclays fined 26million pounds for manipulation of London gold fix on Friday.
The banks are on notice now.
 
So it's brocken down out of that triangle as Ukraine kills 50 Russian covert soldiers and takes back it's airport. Whilst the press is saying Russia and Ukraine are all good. As usual not alot of sense being made anywhere in this stupid bull market.
 
notting said:
So it's brocken down out of that triangle as Ukraine kills 50 Russian covert soldiers and takes back it's airport. Whilst the press is saying Russia and Ukraine are all good. As usual not alot of sense being made anywhere in this stupid bull market.
Click to expand...

No break while it's above $1182
This chart shows a stupid bull market and the next area of support - starting just under $1000

gold_all_data_o_usd.png
 

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