Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Trembling Hand]

Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,

AUD gold.



thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )

 

[Joules MM1]

paper taper rock scissors bars

"There's a big short squeeze taking place," he said, adding that paper claims on gold – from futures, derivatives and exchange-traded funds – "are demanding settlement in terms of physical gold."

video:
Gold ‘ridiculously oversold’: Fund manager

"....that people are losing confidence in the traditional intermediaries between the paper and physical markets, and you can see that with the dramatic drawdown in registered Comex warehouse stocks"

:band

 

[Bintang]

Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,

AUD gold.

View attachment 53887

thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )

That's probably because for a gold bug the only points of interest on the charts are 'Turd bottoms'. Thanks to your previous posts we already understand that in between the 'Turd bottoms' any down-trend is natural-price-action and any up-trend is manipulation.
All very simple. Nothing new here.

 

[Trembling Hand]

natural-price-action...

Nothing new here.

No it would seem so. It wouldn't matter what I said - it got your back up the day I said that fall was stop related, clearly you are looking for someone to pay for something?? I doubt you will ever consider any discussion about it.

 

[Bintang]

No it would seem so. It wouldn't matter what I said - it got your back up the day I said that fall was stop related, clearly you are looking for someone to pay for something?? I doubt you will ever consider any discussion about it.

You are welcome to think what ever you like TH. But try engaging generally in an objective and polite discussion with other members of this forum and you will discover that your doubts are just delusion.

 

[skyQuake]

You are welcome to think what ever you like TH. But try engaging generally in an objective and polite discussion with other members of this forum and you will discover that your doubts are just delusion.

Care to enlighten us on why those doubts are delusional?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Surprised the Gold bugs haven't put this one up,

AUD gold.

thanks to the manipulators hey?? (that is the RBA of course. )

Well the RBA have a lot to answer for, going down the same ZIRP path of currency (un?)competitiveness while making all the savers pay for all the spenders. As for the $US/$AU, I think there is still plenty of downside to go and consequently higher $AU gold prices, even as the $USD becomes more unloved by their previous supporters.

Please will you keep buying our IOU nothing's...............

(Reuters) - China and Japan led an exodus from U.S. Treasuries in June after the first signals the U.S. central bank was preparing to wind back its stimulus, with data showing they accounted for almost all of a record $40.8 billion of net foreign selling of Treasuries.

The sales were part of $66.9 billion of net sales by foreigners of long-term U.S. securities in June, a fifth straight month of outflows and the largest since August 2007, U.S. Treasury Department data showed on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/16/us-usa-economy-capital-idUSBRE97F02T20130816

It's all becoming clearer now, unless Routers and Macquarie (& Bloomberg) have their data wrong as well?

(Reuters) - Britain's gold exports to Switzerland surged in the first half of this year, Australian bank Macquarie said on Monday, suggesting bullion being sold out of exchange-traded funds may be heading for Swiss refineries before being sold on in Asia.

The UK exported 240 tonnes of gold to Switzerland in May alone, while its exports over the first half of this year totalled 797 tonnes, Macquarie said in a note.

In contrast, Britain exported just 92 tonnes of bullion to Switzerland in the whole of last year, it said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/19/uk-gold-uk-exports-macquarie-idUKBRE97I0PQ20130819

The liquidity squeeze on the bullion banks continues for now......will it turn into a price squeeze?

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013

"The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only."

 

[Trembling Hand]

It's all becoming clearer now, unless Routers and Macquarie (& Bloomberg) have their data wrong as well?

No I think they are right. Lots of liquidation in our bonds too.

Also think AUD gold looks pretty sweet.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I was always talking about the leverage in the market not being 100:1. It is nowhere near it.

Would you believe 92 then? Well, sort of?

The Reserve Bank of India ‘Working Group to Study the Issues Related to Gold and Gold Loans by NBFCs in India’

Interestingly, in the Financial Markets, the traded amount of ‘paper linked to gold’ exceeds by far the actual supply of physical gold: the volume on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) OTC market and the major Futures and Options Exchanges was over 92 times that of the underlying Physical Market

http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationDraftReports.aspx?ID=694

So I guess people just have to know the difference between traded 'paper' volume and what actually stands for good delivery? Whatever, there are real signs of 'stress' in the physical trying to be 'balanced' from the paper market hence the nice little $20 to $30 pops in the POG....oh to be a fly on the wall at the LBMA......and JPM.....

Why is it going to take 6 years for Germany to get their gold back?

The next leg higher (both nominally & inflation adjusted) for gold via deep money setting up before the QE distorted credit & repo markets get the wobbles?

Leverage from equities this time?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Would you believe 92 then? Well, sort of?

Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes honestly understanding the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.

 

[Porper]

Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes honestly understanding the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.

I think you are wasting your time T.H.

You will never convince the conspiracy brigade of anything other than what they believe to be true. It's akin to being in a cult... totally brainwashed. They'll be projecting dates for the end of the world next. But, it's an open forum so they are entitled to their beliefs, as funny as they are to most.

 

[explod]

Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes honestly understanding the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.

Maybe, but in real effect the paper does not reflect true product.

A bank recieving a deposit can lend out 900% of it within minutes of reciept. Yes I know, its the way it is but this continued exapansionism is not sustainable and we are hitting the wall in our own time.

In my very humble opinion, as usual.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Maybe, but in real effect the paper does not reflect true product.

A bank recieving a deposit can lend out 900% of it within minutes of reciept. Yes I know, its the way it is but this continued exapansionism is not sustainable and we are hitting the wall in our own time.

This is nonsensical. Has nothing to do with the leverage of gold or PMs. Its a view that you don't like modern finance but has little to do with the incorrect assertion of gold leverage.

 

[explod]

This is nonsensical. Has nothing to do with the leverage of gold or PMs. Its a view that you don't like modern finance but has little to do with the incorrect assertion of gold leverage.

So paper gold and physical gold are the same?

And/or are equal in value.

If not, how about coming down off your high throne and giving a straight forward explanation for dummies.

One does get the impression of course T/H, that you do not really want us to know.

On topic: Gold is going up at the moment, confirming a good long term investment for the steady bug.

 

[Trembling Hand]

So paper gold and physical gold are the same?

And/or are equal in value.

If not, how about coming down off your high throne and giving a straight forward explanation for dummies.

One does get the impression of course T/H, that you do not really want us to know.

What?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Unc!!! Why cannot you guys see where you are being taken for a massive ride with these figures. Futures and ETF instrument, for everything not just your holy PMs, is made for short term speculation. That was always the primary function of futures - in that way they attract volume and price discovery for hedging and forward planing. Have a look at the open interest. If you can spend 5 minutes honestly understanding the figures you will see why you are being taken for a ride with this perpetually repeated myth.

"These figures" were from The Reserve Bank of India. The futures market, as you repeatedly assure us, does not lend itself to being 'unbalanced' so they are obviously not talking about it then. Where the data is showing up 'irregularities' is in the unallocated and yes, in the ETF's markets.

I also added this - "So I guess people just have to know the difference between traded 'paper' volume and what actually stands for good delivery?" I guess this is where some are getting confused about the 'leverage' word?

There is a case that physical gold has been bought sight unseen and with only the promise of it's existence in a vault somewhere. What's happening is that this paper gold IOU is turning out to be worthless as the gold has been over-allocated. The exact figure no body knows (except perhaps the Fed & JPM & the other insiders) but it does show up in liquidity data such as GOFO etc. That's how I interpret it all.

So here's some questions for you -

Why will it take Germany 6 years to get their gold back from the US??

Why has the official amount of gold in the US Feds vaults not changed materially since March 2006??

 

[Trembling Hand]

So here's some questions for you -

Why will it take Germany 6 years to get their gold back from the US??

Why has the official amount of gold in the US Feds vaults not changed materially since March 2006??

No idea! Sounds like the mother of all squeezes is just a month away.......... again! :

First of all with all gold stories I would want to see the actual source. How close have you got to the info outside of zerohedge?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

No idea! Sounds like the mother of all squeezes is just a month away.......... again! :

First of all with all gold stories I would want to see the actual source. How close have you got to the info outside of zerohedge?

It's a liquidity squeeze alright - let's see how long they can defend $1400??

Nothing from ZH. The official gold holdings can be found here -

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html

The Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold (Gold Report):

Reflects gold bullion and gold coins owned by the federal government
Summarizes the fine troy ounces and the book value of gold held by various facilities
Identifies the value of gold coins and bullion on display at Federal Reserve banks; coins and bullion in reserve at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and gold held by U.S. Mint facilities

Like I said, the total hasn't changed materially since 2006 - 8000t - so how much do they have, if any at all?

As for Germany, it's a well known fact -

The Bundesbank will repatriate 674 metric tons of gold from vaults in Paris and New York by 2020 to restore public confidence in the safety of Germany’s reserves.

The phased relocation of the gold, currently worth about 27 billion euros ($36 billion), will begin this year and result in half of Germany’s reserves being stored in Frankfurt by the end of the decade, the Bundesbank said in a statement today. It will bring home all 374 tons of its gold held at the Banque de France and a further 300 tons from the New York Federal Reserve, it said. Holdings at the Bank of England will remain unchanged.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...iate-674-tons-of-gold-to-germany-by-2020.html

So it's going to take 7 more years to transfer 674t, and 300t from an 420t Fed inventory, but yet it only takes the UK 6 months to ship 798t to Switzerland??

The UK’s gold exports have surged nearly tenfold this year as investor selling drives the bullion out of London vaults into the hands of Asian consumers.
UK gold exports to Switzerland, the hub of the gold refining industry, leapt to 798 tonnes in the first six months of the year, up from just 83 tonnes in the first half of 2012, according to data from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/876af37c-08dd-11e3-ad07-00144feabdc0.html

So even the most one eyed gold bear would have to admit that the goings on in the gold sphere leave a lot of questions unanswered, and only fuels the bugs even more. Information is power against those that conspire to game the markets?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gold enters a 'new' bull market as the planets align? Looks like $1425 is the new resistance, then $1480 target?

Todays questions -

Which currency doesn't need defending?

Where do unwanted $USD's go?

Hans Redeker from Morgan Stanley said a “negative feedback loop” is taking hold as emerging markets are forced to impose austerity and sell reserves to shore up their currencies, the exact opposite of what happened over the past decade as they built up a vast war chest of US and European bonds.

The effect of the reserve build-up by China and others was to compress global bond yields, leading to property bubbles and equity booms in the West. The reversal of this process could be painful.

“China sold $20bn of US Treasuries in June and others are doing the same thing. We think this is driving up US yields, and German yields are rising even faster,” said Mr Redeker. “This has major implications for the world. The US may be strong to enough to withstand higher rates, but we are not sure about Europe. Our worry is that a sell-off in reserves may push rates to levels that are unjustified for the global economy as a whole, if it has not happened already.”...

Chart of the day for the bears.......

 

[G Gekko]

Gold rally looks like it could continue for a while:

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2013-08-27/gold-is-very-close-to-a-bull-market-moy