Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Uncle Festivus · 15 December 2011

I hear crickets.......

A few stunned mullets around today perhaps?

Euro zone is in recession, attempts to save have failed.
Flight to $USD's

I think we are well and truly at step 2 now?? Just have to see how long the sheeple realise step 1?

When to buy? My long term support levels @ $1200 & $1500, so see which holds, maybe an accelerated average down buy strategy down through the supports? If it does hit $1200 then I'm backing the truck up and hauling a billion of bullion .

Frank D · 15 December 2011

GOLD Primary and Weekly cycles

Same 'bubble' pattern as Silver, but delayed in the price action by
about 3-months:- confirmed with the Weekly low breakout.

Random support December lows...

But the critical level in the 2012 Yearly 50% level, whilst below that
there is a trend bias back towads the first Quarter level @ 1440...

and as low as the Yearly lows by the 3rd Quarter.

skyQuake · 15 December 2011

Re: Rising price of gold

Gold is under 1600 buddy and VTM looks like absolute crap

explod · 15 December 2011

Producers within aussie borders is my go when I am in. OGC the exception (NZ producer).

As well I like NST and AYN who are all producers.

Now the action overnight has become typical.

At the moment the woes of the Euro see the flight to the good ole US of a dollar. This is the act of scared people cashing in and of course they recieve US dollars into thier accounts and the big guys trade into the stuff too. After they stop blinking in a couple of days they wonder, "now where to put my dollars". Time and time again we see gold and silver spike again from those decisions. Silver I note appears to have already bounced back a half a dollar, gold may have found its old support round $1560 we will see.

So the key now is to see if the US$ runs out of steam here (as I suspect) and the metals hold this level (think they will, silver also on an old support here too)

Thursdays seem to be the favourite time in the week cycle for gold to rise (US time) and Fridays is cap off night. If we do have further weakness overnight then look out below and look at Uncles levels in the post above.

Having said all that it is a time to watch and see and really in the current financial state of play I would not have clue.

Tysonboss1 · 15 December 2011

Explod.

At the moment the woes of the Euro see the flight to the good ole US of a dollar.

I thought the basis of part of your pro gold arguement was that the flight would go to gold.

This is the act of scared people cashing in and of course they recieve US dollars into thier accounts and the big guys trade into the stuff too.

Have you conducted an interview of all those selling, how could you possible know the reason for the selling.

sinner · 15 December 2011

Uncle Festivus said:
A few stunned mullets around today perhaps?

The same stunned mullets as usual, those of us who have been keeping with the plan are no more stunned or mullety than normal.

When to buy?

lol, you stopped? More for the rest of us who work hard and save in gold.

If you mean, "when to buy so I can sell for a short term profit", I would wait for consolidation to finish first.

sinner · 15 December 2011

Today I spotted this post from David Varadi (a very well respected quant) on the CSS Analytics blog.

It is from a little earlier in the year but I think it raises some interesting points, and fields the "Mr Z negative real interest rates" vs "Tysonboss my assets throw off a yield in whatever the currency du jour is" discussion in an interesting fashion.

http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2011/09/26/near-zero-interest-rates-and-diversification/
(a small snippet to whet your whistle)

It is conventional wisdom that gold should not have a risk premium, and historically this has been true though this is a separate debate. What is more important is that gold carries a negative correlation to other assets, and thus in a low or zero interest rate environment it does not need to have much of an expected return in order to improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns. Consider that holding standard deviation constant, an asset with a -.5 correlation reduces portfolio risk by 50%. That means that gold returns can be up to 50% lower than all other asset returns and still improve the portfolio sharpe. The same principle holds true for all assets that have low or negative correlations to equities

explod · 15 December 2011

Tysonboss1

I thought the basis of part of your pro gold arguement was that the flight would go to gold.

Always has in the past after a few days.

Have you conducted an interview of all those selling, how could you possible know the reason for the selling

Dont' need to there has been sufficient anecdotal within the media in the last few days and over the years to have a good idea.

Anyhooow, just wait and see, nothing in concrete these days.

What is you taker on it all ?

Tysonboss1 · 15 December 2011

explod said:
It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001. And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.

We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011

2012 about $2,900
2013 " " 3,900

roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.

And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.

It's nearly the end of 2011, are we still on track to hit $2,200.

Oh well, better luck next year, maybe you'll be right and we will be hitting $2,900 some time soon.

Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.

Starcraftmazter · 15 December 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.

What analysis do you base that on?

explod · 15 December 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
It's nearly the end of 2011, are we still on track to hit $2,200.

Oh well, better luck next year, maybe you'll be right and we will be hitting $2,900 some time soon.

Who knows where the market will send the price of gold shorterm, But my opinion is that it will be lower in 12 months.

I said roughly and the year is a long way from over just yet.

In 2002, 03, 04, 05, 07, 09 and 2010 we had strong upmoves in the gold price in late December. Still up a good 15% for the year so far and I suppose you cannot expect 30%every year, the longer term average is what is going to count (as it has). But still admit its not looking to hot for this year but time will tell.

And a quick rip around the commentators and you will find that it is virtually all paper trading on the London exchange and on the comex with little or no gold changing hands. How much longer this false paper market can last will be interesting but when it comes undone ???

we will see.

Anyway good to see you are still awake there Tysonboss1 and doing a bit of searching I see too. Would never bother to back track on someone myself but each to his own of course.

A merry Christmas to yourself and Family.

iced earth · 16 December 2011

TA of Gold - 16 Dec 2011
=======================
Gold has broken the 3 Years support line as lower line of the channel, the target of the breaking channel would be as low as around $1300.00

first important support level would be around $1450.00 (Fibo 38.2%)

Also from linear chart, Gold would touch the longterm support line around $1450.00

explod · 16 December 2011

iced earth said:
TA of Gold - 16 Dec 2011
=======================
Gold has broken the 3 Years support line as lower line of the channel, the target of the breaking channel would be as low as around $1300.00

first important support level would be around $1450.00 (Fibo 38.2%)

View attachment 45550

Also from linear chart, Gold would touch the longterm support line around $1450.00

View attachment 45551

Is measured on a weekly close basis for the long term trend and looks like it coud in fact be line ball.

We will know in the morning.

Monkeyzu · 16 December 2011

explod said:
Anyway good to see you are still awake there Tysonboss1 and doing a bit of searching I see too. Would never bother to back track on someone myself but each to his own of course.

A merry Christmas to yourself and Family.

Isn't that the point of making predictions?

Billyb · 17 December 2011

Gold will do whatever it wants to do just like every other market and the answer is to let it do whatever it wants to do and just follow the trend.

From a very short term technical point of view there has been some recent high volume wide spread bars and last night was a low spread bar with smaller volume, but all of this is much smaller than the volume we saw when the price crashed in late September. All of this is indicating likely absorption and probably support, because there doesn't appear to be a lot of selling to coincide with the huge price drops we're seeing. Basically the price and volume data is suggesting STRENGTH in the short term. We might see further tests but unless there is something drastic (like big news) it's more likely that we've reached some support here and the price is going to bounce a bit.

Starcraftmazter · 21 December 2011

Gold will not do whatever, it is important to do extensive research and analyse the market to figure out exactly what is happening. How the hell else do you expect to make money?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morga...art-recent-gold-sell-and-why-surge-can-resume

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.LIBGO3M:IND

The recent sell-off in gold was caused by bank funding stress. In particular European banks needed to get USD loans - but couldn't, that is until they put up their gold as collateral (anyone else still thinks gold is a useless shiny metal?). This put gold lease rates into deep negative (something which is not meant to happen) - putting selling pressure on gold.

This situation has began to be rectified recently by the central banks, providing the EZ banks with unlimited dollar liquidity.

Long story short, a rally in gold is coming soon.

explod · 21 December 2011

Agree Starcraftmazter.

Notice now since the cuffufle last week that the US$ has in fact tired and heading back down.

All very much in line with the way it and gold has behaved many times over during this bull run.

Also reports that Euro Countries may be forced to sell gold to ballance books. These types of headlines have also marked the beginning of new upticks for gold over the last few years.

If they cannot beat it technically they then resorts to news blurbs.

Cheers to gold bulls.

Whiskers · 21 December 2011

Gold has certainly out performed my original expectations from a year or two ago.

So, is the tide turning?

What EW counts look best?

What do other TA charts, P&F, IchiMoku etc, indicate?

What do people thing about the likelyhood of gold around 1,200ish later in 2012/13?

A point to consider is the possibility or even probability of heavy gold selling to reduce soverign debt and or provide more stimulus.

aclassic · 21 December 2011

Whiskers said:
Gold has certainly out performed my original expectations from a year or two ago.

So, is the tide turning?

What EW counts look best?

What do other TA charts, P&F, IchiMoku etc, indicate?

What do people thing about the likelyhood of gold around 1,200ish later in 2012/13?

A point to consider is the possibility or even probability of heavy gold selling to reduce soverign debt and or provide more stimulus.

I'd say looking at your chart at the very worst 1950.

Heavy selling - heavier buying.

explod · 21 December 2011

The news that some countries will dump thier gold is just a lot of hot air to try and hold the paper market together. As I iterated earlier in the day on this thread, its orchestration is usually followed by a huge spike up in the gold price. Its worth following the links to see the full stories of the following:-

What I thought was the most fascinating of Mark’s comments during the interview, was his observations of major gold buyers emerging from the Middle East & Asia. “People are coming directly to us,” for large gold purchases he said. “People who want tonnes of physical gold, people with serious financial muscle…because they’re finding it’s very difficult to secure the volume of gold they want…That’s something we’ve noticed over the last 18 months, and it’s been increasing in the last 6 months. I think people are finding its hard to get physical gold.”

Additionally, a major challenge facing the world going forward according to Mark, is that, “The world is short water, energy, & commodities…we’ve under-invested in our natural resources as a society…and as a consequence, we’ll see higher prices around the globe.”

http://bullmarketthinking.com/mark-...buyers-finding-its-hard-to-get-physical-gold/

We’re struggling to get the physical out of these guys (producers) because they have so many people banging on their door, saying, ‘Sell it to us direct.’ What these buyers are doing is essentially taking gold out of the system, which means the bullion banks can’t leverage that gold anymore.

So this is a huge, dynamic shift that wasn’t there before. Now we are working on one other thing. We’re beginning to offer them forward contracts. If you are a sovereign entity, what you are saying to these producers, especially on new projects, is, ‘Why don’t you sell the gold to me in 12 months? Here’s the cash, just provide it to me 12 months from now.’
These buyers are now cutting off future gold supply from the bullion banks...

“This is a huge, tectonic shift in price dynamics going forward because it is taking price discovery away from the bullion banks. These large Chinese buyers and sovereign entities which are doing this are going to have a massive impact on the market.

Interestingly, so many people are bearish on gold right now and looking for a collapse in the price of gold. They don’t understand what is happening in the physical market. The bullish fundamentals I just described to you have enormous implications.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...are_Witnessing_a_Historic_Bottom_in_Gold.html

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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