Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Starcraftmazter]

Hey guys

A few pages ago, someone posted a very funny news segment, where the reporter claimed that investors are unsure about gold because it's not backed by anything as opposed to the USD which is backed by a printer.

Anyway, the video has been taken off due to copyright infringement, and I'm wondering if anyone saved it, because it's honestly one of the funniest things I have seen all year, and wish to share this joy with others on an ongoing basis.

Thanks

 

[Whiskers]

I didn't say that reserve banks wouldn't hold it as an asset.

I said it would not be the base of a major currency, eg Printing note's that can be redeemed for a fixed amount of gold or silver like they did back in the day.

I agree.

The gold that some countries hold these days is not in any way being used a backing for their currency, maybe asset backing for some debt... but mainly just as an asset or investment to trade with to ultimately expand their consolidated revenue.

As a matter of interest, how much gold does Greece and the rest of the PIIGS still actually hold?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Gold rally anyone?

As a matter of interest, how much gold does Greece and the rest of the PIIGS still actually hold?

Mixed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

 

[aclassic]

Greetings,

I know I'm an economic illiterate, but what's the chance of :

Say if gold was ever adopted as the international currency, the world's grubs in charge could include warrants say like PMGOLD so that then the US etc etc could then have fiat gold.
Unlikely?
What would be the POG then?

Cheers.

 

[Bron Suchecki]

1 tonne gold coin

Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.

I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.

I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000

Thats a decent novelty coin to have in the collection, It's going to be a good marketing gimik for them, the gold probably belongs to people holding gold paper, So it basically costs them nothing to hold it except the cost to make it, So its a good low cost marketing exercise for them.

to me it's a good representation of why I will never invest in gold, It looks good, But it just sits there.

 

[Junior]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

But it just sits there.

....and potentially appreciates in value, then you can sell for a profit, and someone else can have it sitting there too.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

....and potentially appreciates in value, then you can sell for a profit, and someone else can have it sitting there too.

Yeah, or it will collapse in market value 1979 style and sit there for 20 years.

I will buy assets that throw of income while I wait.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

Excuse me for gloating that Perth Mint just blew the Canadian Mint's "biggest gold coin" record out of the water http://www.1tonnegoldcoin.com/, theirs was only 100kg.

I'm not sure what the coin premium is if you want to buy it. 5% on $53 million metal value = $2,650,000

Well, I know what I want for Christmas!


Also, I heard the government records everyone who buys gold and how much they hold. Is this true? Does this have any repercussions so far as gifting gold (and other precious metals) to others?

Cheers

 

[explod]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

Yeah, or it will collapse in market value 1979 style and sit there for 20 years.

I will buy assets that throw of income while I wait.

And how do you know it will do that again.

Oh, I know, cause your financial advisers say so. No interest or trailing fees.

If you really do the sums, inflation is equal to the rate of the gold price rise.

Now for a bit of homework it would be good for you to do a mind map on that for yourself.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

1, And how do you know it will do that again.

2, Oh, I know, cause your financial advisers say so. No interest or trailing fees.

3, If you really do the sums, inflation is equal to the rate of the gold price rise.

Now for a bit of homework it would be good for you to do a mind map on that for yourself.

1, Offcourse I don't know for sure, Maybe the question should be "How can you know it won't" It is certainly not outside the realms of possiblilty.

2, Nope, you know nothing, I don't use financial advisers, Never have and never will.

3, No it is not, and even if that were so, why should I rush to by it know, plenty of other assets that will hold value inline with inflation while throwing off income.

 

[explod]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

1, Offcourse I don't know for sure, Maybe the question should be "How can you know it won't" It is certainly not outside the realms of possiblilty.

2, Nope, you know nothing, I don't use financial advisers, Never have and never will.

3, No it is not, and even if that were so, why should I rush to by it know, plenty of other assets that will hold value inline with inflation while throwing off income.

1. A good trend follower goes with it. The trend in gold is perfectly intact. When it falls outside the line then one steps away.

2. Several months ago you stated that you did, in fact you said you had two. Starting to shift on the feet are we.

3. Very few. Property is done for the time being. Resource stocks and banks looking doubtfull given the current world climate.

Gold looking to put in its very best week since December 2008.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

1. Several months ago you stated that you did, in fact you said you had two. Starting to shift on the feet are we.

That is complete and utter B/S I have never said such a thing,

I bet you can not find any post where I have said that I use a financial advisor,

In fact I bet you $100 that you can't find one. If you think I have said it in that last few months you should beable to find it pretty fast, so if you can't come up with a refrence or link to it we will know you are full of S#@T

 

[explod]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

That is complete and utter B/S I have never said such a thing,

I bet you can not find any post where I have said that I use a financial advisor,

In fact I bet you $100 that you can't find one. If you think I have said it in that last few months you should beable to find it pretty fast, so if you can't come up with a refrence or link to it we will know you are full of S#@T

Must have been someone else but could have sworn it was you, so apologies for that.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

1. A good trend follower goes with it. The trend in gold is perfectly intact. When it falls outside the line then one steps away.

3. Very few. Property is done for the time being. Resource stocks and banks looking doubtfull given the current world climate.

Gold looking to put in its very best week since December 2008.

1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.

3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.

For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.

As a case study lets watch it,

Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
gold is closed at $1749 today

Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.

( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

, so apologies for that.

Accepted.

 

[explod]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

Tysonboss1;666639]1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.

We all saw the $300 drop. A drop of some 22%. In 2008 it had one of about the same percentage (now that could be an ominous sign for your stocks) and also in 05/06. So that sort of volatility has been the character of this trend.

3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.

Not able to comment as I am purely a long to medium term trend follower.

For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.

As a case study lets watch it,

Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
gold is closed at $1749 today

Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.

( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )

In the last 10 years BHP has gone from $10 to 38 dollars. With dividends thats not too bad. In the last 10 years gold has gone from $260 per ounce to $1700 dollars which at 650% is a bit better.

About the future. Gold is all about the value of currencies. With underlying inflation on the rise, we expect fuel for example to be $2 a litre soon, our paper money is buying less each day so gold on this basis alone will continue its rise. And if the consumers have to soon choose between the nice extras and food, perhaps BHP will have some problems meeting your expectations.

Gold looks better for this ole black duck.

 

[Billyb]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

1, Well you didn't see the nearly $300 drop that came a few months back, What would it take before the trend is broken, If you waited for another $300 drop you would be giving away alot $$$.

3, No, There is lots of value at the moment, great businesses selling at prices that will asure investors see not only price growth that outpaces inflation but also produces cashflow.

For a real common example, BHP- Is going to double in price before gold does and it pays a ever growing divvy.

As a case study lets watch it,

Bhp closed at $38.69 Today
gold is closed at $1749 today

Bhp will hit $77.38 ( with dividends added back ), long Before Gold hits $3498.

( IMHO Bhp will hit this level inside 5 years )

If BHP does what you say it will (and you have NO IDEA Mr share price forecaster) then trend followers will be on it. Just like they were on gold for the past 10 years...

Yes the $300 drop was very predictable - the only question was WHEN. Volatility is EXPECTED in any powerful long term trend especially if it's been going strong to 10 years!- If you get spooked by short term volatility you can never successfully ride long term trends.

The gold PRIMARY trend is still UP until proven OTHERWISE.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

(and you have NO IDEA Mr share price forecaster) .

I am not a share price forecaster, I have no idea where share prices will go short term. How ever I do know that over time share prices follow value.

And once normality has returned to the markets a company like BHP can easily trade at 15 times earnings which would bring it's price to $59.00 add to that 5 years of retained earnings invested into more growth projects and share buybacks and BHP's earnings in 5years could easily be over $5.5 / share. at 15 times earnings $82.5 add back the dividends and you will see my target price is easily reached.

Gold on the other hand doesn't grow, So it's value will rise and fall with buying and selling, and it's trading range should edge along with inflation. But there is certainly no reason for it to double again and again and again out side of inflation like BHP will over time.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: 1 tonne gold coin

Yes the $300 drop was very predictable - the only question was WHEN. Volatility is EXPECTED in any powerful long term trend especially if it's been going strong to 10 years!- If you get spooked by short term volatility you can never successfully ride long term trends.

personally I love volatility, I especially love prices going down, because I focus on value.

But a trend follow by definition ignores value and follows trends, So must sell out once the trend ends, But how far does it have to drop before you believe the trend is over. Would it have to drop $600.