Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[BRUNONO2]

market is volatile!

news at 11

Gold can only go up with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing

 

[Tysonboss1]

1,You talk about speculation as though it's a bad thing.

2, Gold goes up based largely on speculation. The prices of businesses, aka stock prices, as well as prices of just about everything else that's traded, change daily largely because of speculation.

3, You are making a fundamental error by singling out gold in that respect.

4, No risk, no return. It's as simple as that.

1, No, If you re read what I said you will find I said it is neither illegal nor immoral, I have never said speculation is "Bad or wrong" as long as you are aware you are doing it and don't speculate while trying to invest.

2, Yes, many people do use the financel markets including gold, stocks and property etc etc to speculate. Some stocks and bonds are highly speculative and must be owned by some one, but they should not be classed as investments, ( unless they are part of a professionals portfolio that has skill and experiance in the field)

3, I am not singling out gold, this is a gold thread so I am speaking of gold.

4, that statement is misleading, Low risk does not = Low returns, and High risk does not = High returns. If you believe that you have alot to earn in the game of investments.

 

[DB008]

Gold can only go up with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing

Careful, isn't that what they said about house prices?

I made a decent profit on Silver recently (asx:etpmag), missed out on an extra 50% profit because l was greedy. As they say, you will never go broke selling for a profit.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Gold can only go up with 95% of Governments printing more and more paper money -History proves this. That is why banks and governments have had such a big prpoganda campaign against gold and silver
We have inflation BECAUSE of money printing

Ok, your using the arguement that Gold is going to work as a hedge against hyper inflation that is coming.

my question is-

- Since gold has already advanced to 6 times the value it was just 10 years ago alot of future inflation is already priced in, how are further gains outside of speculation justified?

- If Governments are creating to much money, and the hyper inflation is on it's way, Why would gold be the obvious choice?, Surely other real assets that will also increase in value as the currency is debased but still generate income and have not increased 6 times in value would be better.

 

[Billyb]

Corrections will be small and short lived from now on, for those reasons.

Agree

4, that statement is misleading, Low risk does not = Low returns, and High risk does not = High returns.

I said no risk means no return. I.e if one doesn't take the risk of entering speculative investments like gold or silver, there will be no return from them if and when they go up. So that individual has not taken advantange of speculation because of trying to avoid risk. They don't enter because they think there is no fundamental reason it should keep going up - I humbly disagree - If fundamentals is the study of why a price should go a certain direction - well then in the case of gold the fundamental reason is the human emotion called fear*. History seems to show that if there's fear around then gold is almost guaranteed to go up. So IMHO the fundamental driver of gold is the emotion fear*. And that fundamental is still there, all around the world in fact.

*fear of inflation and market uncertainty

 

[DB008]

I said no risk means no return.

This is pretty much risk free and has a return


(Probably Government guaranteed too up to $1million, so l'd say that's as close to risk free as you can get)

 

[Billyb]

This is pretty much risk free and has a return


(Probably Government guaranteed too up to $1million, so l'd say that's as close to risk free as you can get)

Yep, I think government guarantee runs out soon though. I really did make my statement in relation to gold though.

 

[skyQuake]

Speculators liquidation - follow thru from yesterday.

Nice move - 80/contract for a few hrs work

 

[DB008]

Well, that a was a nice drop, Gold was down $100 at one point and clawed back a little.


Gold Margins Raised 27% on CME’s Comex After Biggest Price Drop Since 2008

CME Group Inc. raised the margin requirements on gold trading at its Comex unit for the second time this month, after prices surged to a record above $1,900 an ounce and then plunged today by the most since March 2008.

The minimum cash deposit for borrowing from brokers to trade gold futures will rise 27 percent to $9,450 per 100-ounce contract in the speculative Tier 1 category at the close of trading tomorrow, Chicago-based CME said in a statement. On Aug. 11, the increase by the exchange was 22 percent to $7,425. The cost of one contract after today’s close was $175,730. The maintenance margin will rise to $7,000 from $5,500.

Comex is making it more expensive for speculators to trade the metal as open interest for gold options climbed to a record 1.263 million contracts on Aug. 18 and prices slumped more than 7 percent in two days, erasing the gain of the past two weeks that sent the metal to a record $1,917.90 yesterday.

More here...

 

[explod]

A very healthy correction as it was overheating. Some consolidation around this level will provide good support going forward. And also a good opportunity to top up. However we could well see moves further down going into this weekend.

Benanke "the helecopter tanki" speaks this weekend so we should expect some gobbledegook words of wisdom to cover some more money printing (QE3) but may be dressed under another name I would say. Gold will not rest for too long after this.

And volatility yes, to be expected and will increase. Five to ten dollar moves in silver and $100 moves in gold will become the daily norm before it really takes off.

In my humble opinion.

 

[skyQuake]

Well, that a was a nice drop, Gold was down $100 at one point and clawed back a little.


Gold Margins Raised 27% on CME’s Comex After Biggest Price Drop Since 2008


More here...

Interesting. That was after the decline, and before the a 6.2 quake hits Vanuatu. Yet nothing happening in gold so far..

 

[mr. jeff]

There must be some very angry large leveraged gold longs out there when the margin gets upped who have had to cut some positions. Would be very hard to swallow.
Nothing for gold has fundamentally changed though. ? To say this is just a speculative bubble would probably greatly amuse the countries which are currently buying physical as fast as they can. Or retrieving their stored physical.

 

[Tysonboss1]

1, Nothing for gold has fundamentally changed though. ?

2, To say this is just a speculative bubble would probably greatly amuse the countries which are currently buying physical as fast as they can. Or retrieving their stored physical.

1, I agree, nothing has changed fundmentally for gold for the last 50years, That is why they sudden rises are a speculative bubble. an KG of gold is still just a KG of gold.

2, Yeah, Governments have such a great track record of investments.

 

[explod]

It is not speculative and it is not a bubble. As it has been for 5,000 years it is the real deal.

Yes property and other tangibles will have their day later on, but it is bullion that is the safest haven now.

Just have a good look at the 10 year chart. "The trend is your friend untill the bend"

 

[skyQuake]

It is not speculative and it is not a bubble. As it has been for 5,000 years it is the real deal.

Yes property and other tangibles will have their day later on, but it is bullion that is the safest haven now.

Just have a good look at the 10 year chart. "The trend is your friend untill the bend"

I would say it is spec, but probably not a bubble. Media calls it bubble because theres a lot of spec longs on it, which are probably in the process of being washed out.

 

[Tysonboss1]

It is not speculative

Yes it is. If you buy somthing with the sole intention of selling it for a higher price next week, next month or next year you are speculating.

An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future,

Whether you buy shares, realestate or any other asset if you a simply looking to flip it for a higher price later you are speculating.

 

[Tysonboss1]

and it is not a bubble.

Well many people believe property is in a bubble, and as mentioned earlier it has only gone from $218 to $450 in 10 years, Not $300 to $1900.

What price do you personally believe gold would have to get to before it could be called a bubble.

 

[investorpaul]

Gold is going to copy what silver did IMO.

It was in an established uptrend - broke out and went parabolic - price crashes/comex raises margins - it will re-enter the original channel and consolidate before continuing with the previous uptrend.

I did an write up on my blog about it this morning: http://investor-paul.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-pulls-back-is-it-following-silvers.html

Or look at the charts:





Im not massively into TA but thats what it looks like to me

 

[disarray]

1, I agree, nothing has changed fundmentally for gold for the last 50years

past performance is not an indicator of future results

What price do you personally believe gold would have to get to before it could be called a bubble

what price do you personally believe gold should be?

An investment attitude looks to the asset itself to generate the return, But gold produces no return outside of selling it to a bigger idiot in the future

so where's your money parked then mr. not an idiot?

 

[Whiskers]

I've been on the sidelines a bit of late and haven't updated my charts. My most likely scenarios (from some months ago) have been taken out in gold and the AUD/USD in particular. Until I check the EW count I can only suspect the most extreme of these scenarios have played out. I think my extreme for the AUD/USD was abt 1.11 and I suspect it has topped for now and set to fall on average in the medium term.

Back to gold...WATCH OUT BELOW!!!

It seems to me a large part of the gold price rise is reminiscent of the property 'bubble' when all the vendors of property were flooding my mail box hawking their wares at feverish rates.