Gold Price - Where is it heading?

wayneL said:

OK OK OK!!! I admiy it! I stole it from there!!! LOL

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Wayne in 100 years from now, no one will remember!

(except our great-grandkids that is lol

I recall once the Daily Telegraph copied the Mirror ! lol -(at least the historical record is complete on one forum

Gold off two-month highs but seen strong

By Atul Prakash

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold hit a new two-month high on Monday before easing on profit-taking, but sentiment remained bullish on healthy technicals and geopolitical concerns.

Silver also traded off its two-month highs, while platinum retreated after surging the past week on speculation that an exchange traded fund could be launched.

"Some of the technical indicators have turned very strong," said Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.

"With all the deceleration in U.S. economic growth, there could be further pressure probably on the dollar and that means that you should have further upward pressure on the gold price."

Gold <XAU=> was quoted at $624.80/625.80 an ounce by 1531 GMT after briefly touching a high of $629.40, the highest since September 7. It closed at $627.50/628.50 in New York late on Friday.

The dollar was little changed against the euro <EUR=>.

"We believe that gold has clearly regained its historical correlation with the U.S. dollar, and we continue to expect a weakening dollar to support a higher gold price," Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

It remained bullish on gold, but lowered its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2007 to $750 from $800.

Technically gold has broken down out of the upward run IMO, but I think this will be shortlived. $US weakness will continue as any change in US Gov will not ultimately effect the way Americans live. In Debt, with interest rates increasing...

Gold futures close with a more than $9 loss

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Nov 8, 2006


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Wednesday with a loss of more than $9 an ounce as traders responded to mid-term election results - a resounding victory for the Democratic Party -- by locking in some of the metal's recent gains.

The decline could come from the "perception that the Democrats gain in Congress has eased some worry with a policy shift in D.C.," said Peter Spina, chief investment strategist at GoldSeek.com.

But "there is little doubt in my view that this is a misleading perspective as the shift in power to the Democrats will alleviate the massive trade deficit, issues in the Middle East, declining U.S. dollar," he said.

Then again, "the chances of making any real significant changes that would in the end benefit the weakening U.S. dollar, look highly unlikely and any impressions otherwise will soon be discounted," he said.

Overall, "gold has been unable to push above some resistance above and a brief consolidation is underway," he said.

Gold for December delivery closed down $9.40 at $618.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its weakest closing level since Oct. 31. On Tuesday, the contract surpassed the $630-an-ounce level that has proved a crucial resistance point in the past week but then retreated to close slightly lower.

"In the run-up to the U.S. election the markets did not know what to do nor how to respond, and now in the run-down from the U.S. election, the markets are still confused," said Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter.
Democrats have won a clear majority in the House of Representatives in mid-term elections and may also take control of the Senate. See election story for the latest. The result sent stocks lower, although the dollar showed a more muted reaction, trading only modestly higher against major currencies. See Market Snapshot.

"After the dust settles from the U.S. elections, the world will awake to see the U.S. more divided then ever before," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich letter. "Radicals around the world will take heart and the world will be as dangerous as ever before," he said, adding that "gold can only benefit in the long run."

For now, other metals followed gold lower Wednesday. December silver futures fell 12.5 cents to end at $12.55 an ounce, January platinum fell $25, or 2.1%, to close at $1,167.30 an ounce and December palladium dipped $5.90 to end at $328.40 an ounce.

December copper fell 12.1 cents to finish at $3.2445 a pound. "Copper continues to break down technically, and on a weekly close below $3.20, can fall all the way down to $2.50," said Grandich.

On the supply side, gold inventories were up 64 troy ounces to 7.53 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose by 324,157 troy ounces to 106.8 million troy ounces. Copper supplies rose by 547 short tons to 25,505 short tons.

Metals-mining shares inched lower to mirror the weakness in the metals futures.

So long as it holds over $602 I'm not too concerned.

Gold dosnt seem to know what its doing today... Up $1.20 one second and down $0.40 the next... happened a few times this morning.

and stop moved to $629 ..

Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else. :

kennas said:

Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else. :

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well done kennas, unfortunately i sold my lhg..

just got home from work. Very pleased to see gold at $635 However LHG hasn't reached the price I want see what happens

The Mint Man said:

just got home from work. Very pleased to see gold at $635 However LHG hasn't reached the price I want see what happens

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I'll be happier when gold is at $650. I recokon LHG will be pushing through $3.10 at that time. That could be a little way off.....Gold still not in confirmed uptrend, but looking ok.

kennas said:

I'll be happier when gold is at $650. I recokon LHG will be pushing through $3.10 at that time. That could be a little way off.....Gold still not in confirmed uptrend, but looking ok.

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Was gold ever in downtrend to begin with???

Depends on your time frame. Short term/long term?

From 2003, no. From May, maybe. From July, yes.

kennas said:

Depends on your time frame. Short term/long term?

From 2003, no. From May, maybe. From July, yes.

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So how do you decide when your July downtrend is over??
Higher lows and higher highs??
Swing charts??
Bounce from significant t/l's??
Press articles??
Why $650

Kauri said:

So how do you decide when your July downtrend is over??
Higher lows and higher highs??
Swing charts??
Bounce from significant t/l's??
Press articles??
Why $650

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Downward trend resistance lines broken combined with clearing previous resistance points and having higher lows occurring.

Sorry this Kitco chart isn't as colourful as yours but $620 was a key resistance line, which should be now support. It has tested it once and broke back up. At this level it has also broken the downward trend line so in retrospect we might be able to say that that was the end to the downward trend.

$640 is the next resistance level, and if it breaks this then the downward trend is clearly broken and it's in a new phase.

When does the uptrend start to occur though? Well, I reckon that we need to wait and see. It could end up just going sideways for a while. My guestimate is that an 'uptrend' will be when it's tested support and resistance lines a couple of times and broken up through $650.

I'm just taking a pluck of course.

kennas said:

Breaking $630, seems to give more reason to be confident this is probably in an uptrend. As previously said, through $640 ultimate confirmation IMO. Or until it does something else. :

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So, I take this comment back after this evaluation.

kennas said:

Downward trend resistance lines broken combined with clearing previous resistance points and having higher lows occurring.

Sorry this Kitco chart isn't as colourful as yours but $620 was a key resistance line, which should be now support. It has tested it once and broke back up. At this level it has also broken the downward trend line so in retrospect we might be able to say that that was the end to the downward trend.

$640 is the next resistance level, and if it breaks this then the downward trend is clearly broken and it's in a new phase.

When does the uptrend start to occur though? Well, I reckon that we need to wait and see. It could end up just going sideways for a while. My guestimate is that an 'uptrend' will be when it's tested support and resistance lines a couple of times and broken up through $650.

I'm just taking a pluck of course.

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Kennass
Thanks for your answer, I've always been more interested in the reasoning behind someones call as opposed to the call itself.

This is not financial advice, but I expect Gold to pull back tonight or Monday until either the 21st or 27th of November (prefer the 27th), and then resume bullishly.

How’s that Kauri? Just take a look at wavepicker’s chart posted 14th of June (post 559 on this thread). Gold has followed this chart quite faithfully. Of course this could be totally wrong... It will be interesting to watch.


Regards


Magdoran

hello,

now that the election is out of the way gold and oil will begin big uptrend again as inflation concerns come to the forefront again

interest rates will head to 10% in the near future and gold will strive with this and supply issues

thankyou
robots

Magdoran said:

This is not financial advice, but I expect Gold to pull back tonight or Monday until either the 21st or 27th of November (prefer the 27th), and then resume bullishly.

How’s that Kauri? Just take a look at wavepicker’s chart posted 14th of June (post 559 on this thread). Gold has followed this chart quite faithfully. Of course this could be totally wrong... It will be interesting to watch.


Regards


Magdoran

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Magdoran..
Just found the chart/commentary by Wavepicker, impressive.
First off, I am relatively new to the E/W principles and post charts mainly as an aid to improving myself in it, (can't change the counts etc mid trade when they are out there ).
I've estimated (hoping for) around the $650 level for the minor 5, before dropping back and starting the next impulsive push, but whatever transpires my stop will keep me on the right side of the trade.
Have tried working with the time dimension but have not really had much success with it, I take my hat off to you for fitting it in with the price projections.
Regards,
Kauri.

Expected target for this leg up was between $633-655.
A break above $676.5 would invalidate the bearish case, and something else more bullish is happening.

Will be interesting to see what transpires

Cheers