Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[youngone]

Any recommendation which stocks for for watchlist?

 

[explod]

Any recommendation which stocks for for watchlist?

We are not allowed to give out recommendations on ASF.

Its an offence unless you are a qualified financial adviser.

However on the threads here you will see what different members say about certain stock so a bit of research will soon put you in the picture.

Have a look at the threads on NCM and OGC for an idea. Poster Kennas is well worth following for detail, he is a very experienced poster/investor and also I think still maintans a spread sheet on Aussie gold stocks.

I hold OGC and AYN

 

[GumbyLearner]

Gold to go up again.

Here's why today's United States CPI figures are a bunch of economic-jibberish.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.

“Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate,” said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. “Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem. Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead.”



The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting…net of financial-market and political hype.”


Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March’s CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.

“Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.

“While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually,” wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams’ statistics.

Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be “serious” to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.
Beyond the money

“Given Walmart’s [WMT 53.52 0.70 (+1.33%) ] sales of $422 billion, we think Mr. Simon has a good idea of what’s in the pipeline,” said Newman.

To be sure, the BLS argues that the changes it has made over the last three decades more accurately reflect a true change in the cost of living. For example, in response to its hedonic adjustments, the BLS web site states, “to measure price change accurately, the CPI must be able to distinguish the portion of price change due to this quality change.



Still, going by recent strong comments from Federal Reserve officials, even members of the central bank must believe inflation is being underreported. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said in a speech last week that the central bank was reaching a “tipping point” as far as changing its policy so it can react to inflation. Maybe Fisher stumbled across Shadowstats.com. The voting member did, after all, mention Volcker in the same speech.

“The need to break the back of that (budgetary debt) spiral is as dire now as was the need for Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation in the 1980s,” said Fisher on April 8th. “As a result of his steadfast determination to press on with exorcising inflation, Mr. Volcker is today among the most respected living Americans and widely considered an exeplar for public servants worldwide.”

DISC: Holding Au

 

[Jhenry]

Gold to go up again.

Here's why today's United States CPI figures are a bunch of economic-jibberish.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.

Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter’s web site, Shadowstats.com.

“Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate,” said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. “Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem. Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead.”



The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting…net of financial-market and political hype.”


Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March’s CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.

“Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.

“While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually,” wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams’ statistics.

Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be “serious” to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.
Beyond the money

“Given Walmart’s [WMT 53.52 0.70 (+1.33%) ] sales of $422 billion, we think Mr. Simon has a good idea of what’s in the pipeline,” said Newman.

To be sure, the BLS argues that the changes it has made over the last three decades more accurately reflect a true change in the cost of living. For example, in response to its hedonic adjustments, the BLS web site states, “to measure price change accurately, the CPI must be able to distinguish the portion of price change due to this quality change.



Still, going by recent strong comments from Federal Reserve officials, even members of the central bank must believe inflation is being underreported. Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said in a speech last week that the central bank was reaching a “tipping point” as far as changing its policy so it can react to inflation. Maybe Fisher stumbled across Shadowstats.com. The voting member did, after all, mention Volcker in the same speech.

“The need to break the back of that (budgetary debt) spiral is as dire now as was the need for Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation in the 1980s,” said Fisher on April 8th. “As a result of his steadfast determination to press on with exorcising inflation, Mr. Volcker is today among the most respected living Americans and widely considered an exemplar for public servants worldwide.”

DISC: Holding Au

Its a interested topic, this is really challenging my ability to follow these posts. But keep it going.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Its a interested topic, this is really challenging my ability to follow these posts. But keep it going.

Welcome JHenry. Read the entire thread. Take special notice of who is still posting and who isn't. Also take note of the price of gold during the times of postings and the calls made by those that posted. Your own simple deductive logic should suffice.

Cheers
GL

 

[tothemax6]

Well the feds inflation figures have been garbage for quite a while. If I recall correctly they were excluding house prices leading up to 2008.
And of course Bernanke, the quack that he is, says he doesn't mind the rise in food and energy prices so long as it doesn't seep into the 'core'. WTF. Typically mentality of a central planner.

Tothemax6, still dreaming of a capitalist society.

 

[Jhenry]

Welcome JHenry. Read the entire thread. Take special notice of who is still posting and who isn't. Also take note of the price of gold during the times of postings and the calls made by those that posted. Your own simple deductive logic should suffice.

Cheers
GL

Thanks, I am definitely going to be learning a lot fast.

 

[Ageo]

Ok on the physical front, the other day i was @ my local bullion exchange and there was a 10 people line up out the door, when i got inside there were people everywhere and i asked the CEO if there was an apocalypse coming that i wasnt aware of...... they just said "no idea but its crazy!"

Out of all my yrs of business in this game i have never seen such a thing...... makes for interesting times ahead indeed

 

[Good Vibes]

That was the funniest video.....

Since you came supply is lost without a trace
I dream at night that I punch you in the face....
Your interest policies I cannot embrace
I feel so wronged and I long for Greenspan's place

I keep cryin' Benny! Benny! Pleeeeze........

Boo hoo hoo
Boo hoo hoo
Boo hoo hoo

(The students at Columbia Business School are very talented.)

Gold must go to $3000...because George Soros said it would - then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Au at (unadjusted for inflation) all time high and no big deal? Sold my Minelab GPX when 1000 per ounce and retrospectively a wrong decision.

Couldn't find any at Warwick anyway.

 

[Bullion Money]

Ok on the physical front, the other day i was @ my local bullion exchange and there was a 10 people line up out the door, when i got inside there were people everywhere and i asked the CEO if there was an apocalypse coming that i wasnt aware of...... they just said "no idea but its crazy!"

Out of all my yrs of business in this game i have never seen such a thing...... makes for interesting times ahead indeed

This month has been the busiest I have seen ever. We had to take on extra staff to take and manage orders.

Absolutely nuts.

Perth Mint have stopped taking orders for Silver bars until further notice. Cant recall them doing that ever!

 

[sinner]

This month has been the busiest I have seen ever. We had to take on extra staff to take and manage orders.

Absolutely nuts.

Perth Mint have stopped taking orders for Silver bars until further notice. Cant recall them doing that ever!

I placed my first order with BullionMoney.com.au on Friday during Tokyo hours after discovering them about 2 weeks earlier.

Can we have an ASF discount?

 

[explod]

All quiet on the gold thread so cant' be much doing.

No reports; and mine were too buggish anyway.

Lollie pops and roses and back to the vegie patch.

 

[explod]

Gold hitting US$1,500 this arvo.

Sold my gold last year to put it all into silver, figure that.

The World Gold Council, Donald Trump and noddy Kitco Nadler indicate sell, figure that.

Very bullish if you ask me.

Cheers to all physical holders.

 

[ivanyo]

It's any man's guess really...

 

[Logique]

Damn, I have just got to get onto Amazon and start browsing for bargains. The little Aussie battler trading above 1.07 USD, with momentum intact.

The USD index breached a crucial downside technical level (<75) , also with momentum intact.

All good for precious metals.

 

[Bullion Money]

I placed my first order with BullionMoney.com.au on Friday during Tokyo hours after discovering them about 2 weeks earlier.

Can we have an ASF discount?

Im sure we can sort out an ASF discount, you didn't mention you were form here when you bought?

Next time im sure we can work something out.

Cheers

 

[explod]

With the price of gold in my view looking to break out this week and a number of pundits fearing it may be over heated I felt that those new to the subject may derive benefit from the following take on gold by Doug Casey.

This article gives a good outline of its history as money and its value over other assets including paper money.

I did post this up on the silver thread last night but believe it needs wide circulation due to current interest.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303671600.php

 

[Bullion Money]

Nice read. Thanks for the post.

 

[Logique]

Hey BM and others, I took the trouble to check the website, very impressive, and the prices look fair.

Upon purchasing the physical, what to do about storage? Bank vault, secure storage specialists etc? Also I've heard supply is tight with some products - the bars in particular?