Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Hello SX,

Thank you for sharing your view on that - RSPT might be dead as an early matter of business for our new PM LOL.

Lets hope so. This could help my thesis to eventuate (as above) but my philosophy is to let the market be right and do my best to follow it. Of course you have to have a solid theory and feed as much real data into the model as you can however things change quickly at times in these troubled volatile markets. We have to stay on top of it to survive :)

I try to cover the whole sector so that I can attempt to spot the next winner. This is virtually a full time task. Usually fundamentals tell me who the losers are and this assists me to avoid those - but not always such is the nature of investing in such a tough sector. You are right though - it is mainly about deposit, grade (and I would add prospectivity), cost and luck certainly helps when fat tail events or special finds come out of the blue.

We will soon see if we get a back flip on the RSPT or RUST as I have coined it. Richardson gave that away earlier in the week - the back end power players in the factions don't want it and were prepared to take down KRudd to distance them from the debacle.

My 2c anyway - not trying to be political - I leave that for other commentators to worry about.

Regards,
AUcomm
 
A look at the calendar gives a possible idea of gold's direction. Options are expiring this week, 25 June (COMEX); then 4 July for the Yanks. Therefore, volumes should be very thin through the first week of July. This should exagerate any up/down gold moves.

SX
 
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


I'm strategizing: Thin Volume + Crowded Trade + (Au x (Present weak seasonalty/Late July seasonal strength begins)) = BUY on dips, near support, ie. $1224 and $1230, or where you dare.

It's the crowded trade, ie. too much bullishness v fear, that I'm trying to reconcile... So, bought an Aussie near-term Au producer yesterday on the news of the Gillard coup, brought to you by Rio/BHP/FMG/et al; and am holding the rest.

SX
 
Southern X said:
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. And with all due respect for those gentlemen, I advise you as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw


I'm strategizing: Thin Volume + Crowded Trade + (Au x (Present weak seasonalty/Late July seasonal strength begins)) = BUY on dips, near support, ie. $1224 and $1230, or where you dare.

It's the crowded trade, ie. too much bullishness v fear, that I'm trying to reconcile... So, bought an Aussie near-term Au producer yesterday on the news of the Gillard coup, brought to you by Rio/BHP/FMG/et al; and am holding the rest.

SX
Click to expand...

SX, are you going to let us in on your secret buy? We may all benefit. I`m curious now.
 
This thread's clean of pumpers and bashers, just the direction and velocity of gold. And I'm not going to spoil that with "camouflaged pumps."

Sorry to tease, just used it as an illustration of my strategy; in this case, as posted before, the four criteria here were: sovereignty risk being de-risked; near-term producer; that's cashed up, and; the direction of the commodity.

SX

PS It was down over 3% today, doncha jus hate that!
 
AUcomm said:
I agree with your longer term analysis RF - this time the metal has paved the way and profits will start to dictate SP performance of a wider range of stocks in H2 2010. We have to wait and see but this is my thesis at this stage.

Cheers,
AUcomm
Click to expand...

Thanks. Sorry, I've become a bit of an irregular poster.

If you have a good look at that chart you'll see the gold shares are looking to break out of a 30 year consolidation pattern. Gold already has, Au shares haven't yet. When it does and it could come soon, thats a serious move!
 
The USD looks toppy, with maybe another bounce up before going down.

The S&P 500 appears to be making the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.

The COTs are as bearish as they were in December, but since they're always bearish it's the degree that matters.

And the HUI, on a three year looks like a double top.

Gold is up incrementally.

I see a time to sell -- ?soon? -- and a time to BUY BIG -- after a proven bottom, here I'll let the first 15% or so go for confirmation. So I'm still cautiously bullish.

Good Luck

SX
 
Southern X said:
This thread's clean of pumpers and bashers, just the direction and velocity of gold. And I'm not going to spoil that with "camouflaged pumps."

Sorry to tease, just used it as an illustration of my strategy; in this case, as posted before, the four criteria here were: sovereignty risk being de-risked; near-term producer; that's cashed up, and; the direction of the commodity.

SX

PS It was down over 3% today, doncha jus hate that!
Click to expand...

Please just name the stock and your entry point, it isn't an issue of a pump it's an issue that you keep talking about something without specifying what it is. That has a far more derailing effect on this thread than if you were to keep it about "just the direction and velocity of gold" which you haven't anyway. If you don't want to talk about the stock that's fine, but please actually stop talking about the stock!

Some weekly gold ratio charts below...

Gold:Oil
Gold:Silver
Gold:US Treasury Bonds
DOW:Gold
FTSE:Gold
SSEC:Gold
 

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Last one (5 file upload limit).

The main thing to note with these ratios is that most contracts priced in gold terms have largely remained rangebound during the so called reflation rally.

Except, in two cases.

1. US 30Y Treasury Bonds
2. Shanghai Stock Exchange

In both cases gold has made a new high against the respective ratio asset class.

Gold making new highs when priced in terms of the Chinese stockmarket (you would think it would be in terms of the DAX or FTSE? but obviously not!) or in terms of long dated US debt. I will leave it to the reader to infer from that what they will.
 

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Point taken sinner.

The one I clumsily referred to was bought in great part because of last week's Gillard putsch where I'm betting on a NEW! User Friendly! RSPT, thereby derisking Australia's sovereign investment profile: Integra Mining, IGR.

After a beating today I'm thinking a bounce next week, post-July 5, when a bit more liquidity comes into the market.

Here, I'm torn. History shows we're moving into a period of strength for gold beginning in late July, but there are too many buts for me to rest easy. These primarily include: gold's lone rise amongst commodities, and; the S&P looking very shaky and starting a flight to safe havens, ie. USD/US treasuries.

Currently, I'm looking for strength, eg. the upward climb of the S&P's right shoulder -- no guarantee this pattern will form -- to sell into.

SX

PS Apologies for any misunderstandings, and any thoughts on IGR, or other juniors, welcome by me.
PPS Germany beats Argentina (though this would be a bet motivated by my heart!).
 
Southern X said:
Point taken sinner.

The one I clumsily referred to was bought in great part because of last week's Gillard putsch where I'm betting on a NEW! User Friendly! RSPT, thereby derisking Australia's sovereign investment profile: Integra Mining, IGR.

After a beating today I'm thinking a bounce next week, post-July 5, when a bit more liquidity comes into the market.

Here, I'm torn. History shows we're moving into a period of strength for gold beginning in late July, but there are too many buts for me to rest easy. These primarily include: gold's lone rise amongst commodities, and; the S&P looking very shaky and starting a flight to safe havens, ie. USD/US treasuries.

Currently, I'm looking for strength, eg. the upward climb of the S&P's right shoulder -- no guarantee this pattern will form -- to sell into.

SX

PS Apologies for any misunderstandings, and any thoughts on IGR, or other juniors, welcome by me.
PPS Germany beats Argentina (though this would be a bet motivated by my heart!).
Click to expand...

See stock comp.:) I`m a simple man. AU AU AU !!! Shades of Norman May in his heyday. Look forward to that bounce you mentioned next wk.
 
Southern X said:
The USD looks toppy, with maybe another bounce up before going down.

The S&P 500 appears to be making the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern.

The COTs are as bearish as they were in December, but since they're always bearish it's the degree that matters.

And the HUI, on a three year looks like a double top.

Gold is up incrementally.

I see a time to sell -- ?soon? -- and a time to BUY BIG -- after a proven bottom, here I'll let the first 15% or so go for confirmation. So I'm still cautiously bullish.

Good Luck

SX
Click to expand...

It won't take to long before people stop selling Gold or Silver. I suspect all currencies will be too worthless to consider having in the next year or two.
 
electronicmaster said:
Gold increased (in the last six months):-

Over 16% for AUD
Over 24% for the EUR
Over 29% for the USD
Over 40% for the GBP



Silver is up over 10% for the last six months if priced in AUD
Click to expand...

nup sorry, that was incorrect. the EUR, USD and GBP results I wrote was for 12 months.

22% for AUD (for gold) in the last 12 months.
 

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