Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[So_Cynical]

Just wondering if anyone is concerned about a potential ETF gold bubble...the SPDR Gold ETF is the 7th largest gold holder in the world, and the money that has flowed into that ETF could just as easily flow out when the sentiment turns....is this an issue for anyone?

 

[SeM0s]

Gold - March 15, 2010

Summary

Long term outlook: Up
Medium Term Outlook: Down
Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
Revision Point: Break above 1260
Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.

The market saw a decline during the last week. We may have seen the completion of wave II.3 at the March 3, ’10 high (1045.10) – as shown in the main image. This would imply that we are now in the third wave decline. If this is correct, then we are likely to see the swiftest and the longest sell off awaiting us in the upcoming days, without getting a break above the March 3, ’10 high at 1045.10. This sell off, if it is a thirdwave sell off, is likely to be longer in magnitude than the sell off witnessed from December 3, ’09 high (1226.30) to the December 22, 09 low (1074.90).

Alternatively, the March 3. ’10 high may not be a completed wave II.3, but rather a wave b of a possible second wave Expanded Flat correction underway, after the completion of a possible wave i.C.2 at the February 22, ’10 high (1130.85). If this scenario is to hold valid, we are likely to see a wave iii.C.2 rally in the upcoming days, taking the price above the February 22, ’10. However, before this rally, we are likely to see fall below the February 25, ’10 low at the 1087.72 mark, possibly to between the 1080 to 1070 mark, completing wave c.ii.C.2.

 

[Whiskers]

This little potential H&S looks ominous.

It it eventuates it'll probably trigger a break of the uptrend line.

 

[explod]

Though few of late as we trend sideway you have put in some great posts guys. I have found however that gold is a very difficult one to guage in the shorter term. My strategy has been to hold the bullion for the long term as a hedge against other investments going pear shaped which has worked well for me over the last five years. Of course a stronger Aussie dollar does dilute gains to some extent, but in spite of that, the overall growth of gold against currency weaknesses generally has put gold up with leading strategies for growth.

Our long term chart from Kitco says it best of all.

 

[explod]

I still believe that the Central Banks of both China and India are interested in acquiring more physical gold for their reserve diversifcation process and will be active if they feel price is at an attractive level. Consider their plight – they were moving from Dollar denominated paper to increasing holdings in Euro denominated debt – what did that gain them with the collapse in the Euro? Move to British Pound denominated debt? Sure – why not if you are a glutton for punishment. Gold just keeps looking more and more attractive in this environment.

There are some very interesting developments overall in the last week which indicates that more sentiment is moving towards gold as an alternate currency base. As well as the following link for all of the article encompasing the above excerpt by Dan Norcini

http://jsmineset.com/

Also check out http://www.gata.org/

And as a lead into the enquiry regarding price control over the P/M market the link above(first one) from trader Dan gives an indication that some of the manipulative activities may finally get through to US lawmakers. However this is all about preserving the status of paper money folks and the system will not give up without extreme resistance.

Any attention from official levels to moderate or curtail institutional short sellers of paper bullion contracts will IMVHO have a profound impact and see the price of physical gold rise substantially.

On top of overall currency concerns I think that also on a seasonal basis the next few months may be very interesting indeed on where the price of gold is going. To my mind (and just opinionit will be up against all currencies by more than 20%. In the meantime of course it remains around record levels for both the Euro and the Pound.

We shall see.

 

[Whiskers]

Any attention from official levels to moderate or curtail institutional short sellers of paper bullion contracts will IMVHO have a profound impact and see the price of physical gold rise substantially.

On top of overall currency concerns I think that also on a seasonal basis the next few months may be very interesting indeed on where the price of gold is going. To my mind (and just opinionit will be up against all currencies by more than 20%.

We shall see.

Yeah, I would say 20% would probably pull it up for the next significant correction. I still can't see any circumstance where the POG would go ballistic.

I'm thinking wave iii and iv are done and a neat minor wave ii zig zag is probably also complete.

It looks like it has bounced off the 3 month MA (deep pink) again.

 

[explod]

Yeah, I would say 20% would probably pull it up for the next significant correction. I still can't see any circumstance where the POG would go ballistic.

Not suggested that it is going ballistic at this stage, 20% is far from that.

More than 20% from this date last year in US$

April 05 to April 06, 60%

Since the bull run in gold began from 2001 we have had significant rises from April to October in 2009, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001.

So merely on the seasonal circumstance there is a good chance of a good rise this time.

Lets keep a tab on this Whiskers, for you 20% or thereabouts down and I will go for the approximate 20% rise from April till October 2010.

However on my view of the 10 year chart for gold I would not be surprised that a break to the upside could be much greater.

 

[explod]

Re: Gold Daytraders

They have ceertainly been having a bit of a ponzi party over there at London it seems. From the GATA website, article by c powel 28th March inst.

When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."

There is a lot of attention being given to gold trading of late and the above is just a part (US bullion banks will be ironed out soon too IMHO) that could put a rocket under good gold investments, and gold/silver.

To check out more go to the link:- http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fo...onfirms-lmba-otc-gold-market-paper-gold-ponzi

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Gold Daytraders

Explode how many more time does it have to be rammed down the gold bugs dumb brains that futures contract traded NEVER = physical in ANY market.

Its just shows how dumb the bugs are and completely lacking in understanding of the market that they claim to be an expert on.


DUMB DUMB DUMB.

Further why don't you guys complain about the excessive ETF "manipulation" of the futures contracts upwards?? Oh thats right, its a long position not backed by physical, that doesn't count?

FFS!!!!!!!

 

[explod]

Re: Gold Daytraders

Explode


DUMB DUMB DUMB.

Further why don't you guys complain about the excessive ETF "manipulation" of the futures contracts upwards?? Oh thats right, its a long position not backed by physical, that doesn't count?

FFS!!!!!!!

I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.

Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge. Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this. Of course it is about ballance and hedging. If we could get rid of the ballance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially. Why, cause everyone would have to get a basic financial education to survive.

Big sigh; I used think there was such a thing as basic honesty within us all, but how wrong I was.

Back to trading, like the look of TAM in view of the current situation developing

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Gold Daytraders

I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.

Explod. I think, at least I try anyway. Rather than quoting financial armageddon losers by the name of " Tyler Durden " or if you cannot make a point from the conspiracy blog sphere just making up lies and rubbish like some of your recent contributions in the economy thread.

Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge. Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this. Of course it is about ballance and hedging. If we could get rid of the balance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially

Yeah? what like house prices always rising? figgin' clueless!!

 

[explod]

Okay, have had a bit of a think about T/H's venom, some justified but some over the top, so have moved on. The enquiry into the bullion markets are just too important to ignore, as an outcome that may identify and prove manipulation on the scale being asserted will have very major impact on the direction of the gold price.

Hope this time I have the link correct but the following summarises well what I was getting a bit too overexcited about and brings developments up to date.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-lewis/its-ponzimonium-in-the-go_b_519893.html



For those wanting other related articles go to the Gata site at

http://www.gata.org/node/8498

 

[sinner]

Re: Gold Daytraders

Explode how many more time does it have to be rammed down the gold bugs dumb brains that futures contract traded NEVER = physical in ANY market.

Err ...so JP Morgan and Citi each had hired supertankers full of heating oil for what exactly?

NEVER in any market would a contango trade need to be played out with physical huh?

Sliding shipping rates spurred several traders to enquire about the same transaction as JPMorgan, Varvaropoulos said.

Traders were already using smaller tankers to store record volumes of jet fuel and heating oil in Europe as on-shore tanks filled up, D/S Torm A/S, Europe’s biggest oil products shipping line, said April 3.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=auE79A8VeBis&pid=20601087

I have said this many times, shorting is immoral, sometimes I think t/h that you do not really think.

Fancy leasing/borrowing someones shares without thier knowledge. Could not believe it when a broker once suggested this. Of course it is about ballance and hedging. If we could get rid of the ballance and the hedging and just go to straight marketing (buying selling) without the interfearance of banks and governments then the world would soon be a much healthier place financially. Why, cause everyone would have to get a basic financial education to survive.

Big sigh; I used think there was such a thing as basic honesty within us all, but how wrong I was.

Back to trading, like the look of TAM in view of the current situation developing

So um...how are you sure if you decide to buy TAM you won't be buying leased stock someone is selling short? Obviously buyers like you are the real problem here, if there was nobody to buy then shorters would have to go home!

Buying Oz gold stocks right now is pretty much just a short AUD play isn't it?

 

[explod]

Re: Gold Daytraders

Err ...so JP Morgan and Citi each had hired supertankers full of heating oil for what exactly?

NEVER in any market would a contango trade need to be played out with physical huh?



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=auE79A8VeBis&pid=20601087



So um...how are you sure if you decide to buy TAM you won't be buying leased stock someone is selling short? Obviously buyers like you are the real problem here, if there was nobody to buy then shorters would have to go home!

Buying Oz gold stocks right now is pretty much just a short AUD play isn't it?

Was not aware that you could actually short small caps but certainly open to suggestion.

 

[Edwood]

still following the daily tune

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

still following the daily tune

Whats the expectation? It will keep following the your channel? Do you have a longer term position in Gold?

 

[Edwood]

hi Sam - I don't have a long term position in gold - in general my positions are pretty short term whatever the instrument
'Near term' this is one possibility
'Longer term' the whole move off the highs still looks like a consolidation in an uptrend - i.e., continuation - and the inverse h&s suggests 1250 area - in my opinion, dyor etc

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

hi Sam - I don't have a long term position in gold - in general my positions are pretty short term whatever the instrument
'Near term' this is one possibility
'Longer term' the whole move off the highs still looks like a consolidation in an uptrend - i.e., continuation - and the inverse h&s suggests 1250 area - in my opinion, dyor etc

Cheers for that just interested in what your thoughts were based off that chart, as I don't really know much about the application of Andrews Pitchfork

 

[Trend Hunter]

According to my analysis Gold (GLD) is:
Monthly Chart: Bull confirmed
Weekly Chart : Neutral
Daily Chart : Bull Confirmed
Hourly Chart : Bull Confirmed
15 minute Chart : Bull Confirmed but resistance at 113

Overall: Waiting for a retest

Cade

 

[Edwood]

15 minute Chart : Bull Confirmed but resistance at 113

what sort of resistance at 113, given we're now at 1160+?

fwiw think we're around resistance and due a retrace, but keep an eye on the dx.

Shame XAU hasn't had the same returns as palladium since the lows.