Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Last nights price action in Gold is why a few months ago I declared that I do not understand Gold pricing (I think very few people do) and hence will not try and predict gold price as its just to volatile and uncertain, Uranium thats easy lets see up and up and up and oh yeah up :D
 
trying to predict the price of gold is a like trying to predict forex I've tried trading forex and a small attempt at gold and got severly burnt most times.porkpie
 
Interesting situation :

I hold the analyst that both Nick Radge and Steve Saville give in the highest respect --- but at the moment they are both opposing each other !

Tend to go along with a series of posts on the deceased KITCO forum , which was basically refering to the " programme trading " being carried out by HEDGE funds and that the COTs would just wait in ambush .

Recent activity would seem to back this up .

Cheers
 
I wouldnt be surprised if this N Korea nuke test move puts a hold on gold, or even push it back up around $600. Will only take something else, like oil worries, for it to shoot up again.

Then again, if it blows over, gold may be testing $540.
 
How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV?

There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?

Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.
 
kennas said:
How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV?

There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?

Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.
Click to expand...

I gave up some time ago trying to predict/explain movements in the gold price. It just doesnt make sense to me sometimes... :(
 
kennas said:
How can POG be under pressure when N Korea are about to start WWIV?

There is something else at play here. Who could be wanting POG to be going down, or what's it linked to? Possibly oil price, but that went back up overnight didn't it?

Perhaps the congresssional elections in the US is a factor? Perhaps they need a strong US dollar to assist with re election? Aparantly there's been some suscpiscious gold sales from central banks. Lower gold price, higher US $? After the elections the price will go back up again when central banks stop selling in support of US$. Malipulation? Surely not.
Click to expand...
Kennas....you are speaking the truth in your 2nd paragraph....once its over POG and OIL will be heading north...this is the calmness before the storm...they want be able to carry on and then you will see what OIL and Gold will cost...back to higher prices for sure
 
In an e-mail alert, Peter Grandich, Editor of The Grandich Letter, gave readers his predictions.

“The good news is all systems remain go for a new, all-time highs in 2007,” began Grandich. “The bad news is, there’s not only been significant technical damage done short term, but the next few trading sessions are likely going to impact where we head for much of the balance of 2006.”

“It will be unlikely for gold to break much below $570 on a closing basis without further declining to at least $540 (May lows),” he added. “If the thought of $540 sickens you, then me stating gold could fall all the way to $500 but still be in a long-term bull market can only upset you even more.”

“Just try to remember that we remain in a secular bull market and that a four digit price target remains - even if we need to first go as much as $70 lower,” he concluded.
 
Sean,

Awhile back I became frustrated with Gold and hence decided not reduce my exposure (ie sell off all gold stocks) as when the inflation fears of May hit, gold the great safe haven fell ?????????????????


Then when the bad middle east turmoil, Lebanon/Israel all happened gold fell?????????????????????????????


So Gold did not rally in the face of inflation, nor did it rally in the face of global instability, so as far as I'm concerned those that are controlling/manupulating gold do what they like with it,

You'll find Uranium and Zinc much easier to forecast and play with :D
 
Why are my gold stocks up when gold went down overnight?

Sure it's up $7 on the NY close but well under yesterday. What the? A sign of them being oversold? Gold oversold? Oh, I hope so..
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Sean,

Awhile back I became frustrated with Gold and hence decided not reduce my exposure (ie sell off all gold stocks) as when the inflation fears of May hit, gold the great safe haven fell ?????????????????

Then when the bad middle east turmoil, Lebanon/Israel all happened gold fell?????????????????????????????

So Gold did not rally in the face of inflation, nor did it rally in the face of global instability, so as far as I'm concerned those that are controlling/manupulating gold do what they like with it,

You'll find Uranium and Zinc much easier to forecast and play with :D
Click to expand...

I'm confused. :confused:
 
Kennas :

http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/market_logon.asp

Try the link above --- the auther Steve Saville really comes up with in depth long term analiys of Gold -- he shares the reasoning behind the analiys with his readers.
U can take a 30 day free sub -- go back through the newsletters (years of the stuff )

Been sub, with this guy since the early 2000s
gets it wrong now and then , but that gold

Cheers
 
Thanks for the link Coyotte,

Moment of truth for gold right now I reckon. If Nth K letting off a nuclear bomb is not enough to send gold back above previous highs then it's heading to $540...

Come on gold!!!!
 

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GOLD PRICE RISE AS RISE IN PRICE OF OIL

Gold price rise in Asia as there was rise in oil price encouraging some investor to buy this precious metal to hedge against inflation. The price of gold is moving in the same directions as the prices of the oil this is happening since the fall in price of oil from 73 $ a barrel to 57.75 $ a barrel this is a great difference. Some investors buy gold as it can hold its value better than other assets when inflation accelerates. Apart from that the festival season in India is also creating more demand for the metal where by they treat as a good luck by wearing new ornaments on the festival day.
 
Just have to a bit more patient with gold, as some powerfull forces are at work keeping financial markets under control untill after the US congressional elections. Also, hedge funds might be going along with the Dow Jones smoke & mirrors show as well, so if 12000 is the best the DJ can do then we might see a harsh pull back, ie correction, after reporting season and elections are over. Also, the US economy generally may lag the housing downturn by some months, so be prepared for a US recession, and all that iplies for the rest of the world. Hard landing coming up - gold through the roof!
 
Average Gold Prices
Comex US$/Oz

HY Jun 01 266.02
HY Dec 01 276.66
HY Jun 02 302.48
HY Dec 02 319.18
HY Jun 03 348.92
HY Dec 03 377.50
HY Jun 04 400.34
HY Dec 04 418.93
HYJun 05 427.19
HY Dec 05 462.75
HYJun 06 593.37
Current Ave $615
Current Spot 592.80
Gold has had a wonderful bull run since 2001 and as you can see above its consistantly made gains in the second half of the year but in that period it is yet to exceed a 10% gain in its average price over the first half of the year.
If gold is to continue in its bull run based on the annual averages we would need to see the spot increase towards $650 or is the bull run over?
 
To me, gold has to hold above 610 to break the current downtrend, does anyone agree, and if so do you think it failed that last week?
 

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