I guess I have my answer, although I will need to know the serious money is behind this break. According to the volume the later half of this break is momentum.
Time to jump on the retracement with a moderate stop for me.
I will maintain my idea that it will be late Feb/march before it really gets a leg up. But there is some strength in it now. Got into LGL yesterday and pleased about that. Its break above $3 will be on on Monday and then this will be a good one.
and the HUI tacked on 9%it can tack on a 6% gain in a trading session.
Change of trend at hand Bent?
Its not shooting up to $1000 now like it did march last year because now we have jewelers and industry cutting back on their gold use because they now realize the world is in a financial crisis.
I wonder how far they can cut back
Its not shooting up to $1000 now like it did march last year because now we have jewelers and industry cutting back on their gold use because they now realize the world is in a financial crisis.
I wonder how far they can cut back
Even our local Herald Sun newspaper has recommended a gold stock today, now that is very bullish indeed.
still not too sure about the dollar/gold relation. must say that dollar has not been looking too healthy lately. where & when will the new admin step in to give it some solid support ... to the detriment of gold? just because it's better than other currencies, does that denote strength? a collapse of the dollar = green light for gold. you think the new lot don't know that?
......................
In my opinion they probably can't stop the trend reversal now, they will be
"exporting deflation" for a long time to come, and this will mean a strong USD whether they like it or not.
Friday night was a good example of the new trend which I have already mentioned several times, breaking the old and misconception: that gold and USD are inversely correlated.
I think this bull in major trade currencies (yen, USD, gold, HKD) will continue until things get so rough for exporters that the only option left will be devaluation against gold.
without wanting to start an argument about the why & wherefores, but whether it is a misconception, still remains to be seen.
hey all,
first post and thought i might join in on this discussion... in my humble opinion, this year looks to be the year of gold... it should make a new high on the monthly charts i.e. pass the $1000 mark which will then continue to confirm the uptrend on a longer term time frame...
reasons why? Well, considering the market tries to factor in 6 months ahead... my belief is that the US in now running into hyper inflation mode or will eventually... they will need to continue spending billions of dollars in order to help bail out banks, which will translate into hyper inflation some time very soon... what I think will be a shock to everyone is that at some point the inflationary figures will really take off at a much faster rate... another point to the argument is that all other commodities have taken a real hit except gold. As for the US dollar, we could see a collapse as the spending will really get out of control. Projections for gold... $1,200 - $1,500 by the end of this year... Hold your gold ;-)
Hi Cooks,
There has been plenty of jibber about hyperinflation from the gold bugs for a very long time now. Frankly it belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US. You base your entire case on the hyperinflation call but give no reasoning why bailouts will translate to hyperinflation "some time very soon". When is very soon?
Another point I take exception to is the constant referral to gold as a commodity. Gold trades on the currency desks at most major brokers, it has an international currency code and is held in reserves by banks internationally. I don't know any banks who hold coffee, nickel and gas futures in reserve.
Can we stop comparing gold to commods and patting ourselves on the back for the lack of relative drop? Oil is really the only commodity I would feel safe pairing with gold in analysis and this is for very specific reasons.
Please don't take this as an attack on your first post, and I don't nescessarily disagree with your forecast. However I do feel the hyperinflation spiel has been spouted a hundred jillion times by the gold bugs already, and if this scenario was remotely correct it would have played out already! Clearly this is not what is happening yesterday, today or two weeks in the future.
IMHO gold is rising now against a basket of currencies for the same reason the USD and JPY are rising against those same currencies. Of course being priced in USD helps on the cross. Those buying to stand in front of the deflationary train are going to get run over, as Mike Shedlock has mentioned. Their dumb luck might save them from a hefty lossbecause gold is a safe bet at this point anyway, but to expect runaway inflation and a runaway goldprice is very very very premature I think (although I could be wrong with new all time lows on the 30y T-bill yield).
I'd like to post you guys this chart from the following article. You can safely ignore the article, it is more misconceptions about money supply and inflation/deflation.
But the charts never lie, I will leave the interpretation of this one up to you!
Source article
http://www.safehaven.com/article-12377.htm
30y T-bill:GOLD ratio long term chart:
Hi Sinner,
First of all you state there "belies a misunderstanding of the actual fiscal situation in the US". Bottom line is that the US is printing money like there is no tomorrow, they are getting into more debt every day when they should be saving money... and when you print money out of thin air, who is going to back the currency in the end???
Lets send china some more "I owe you money" memos
The definition of hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value... It is common sense, the more dollars you print, the less value each one has... which will eventually translate into a hyper inflationary scenario... do you see prices in the supermarket and shopping stores coming down? No, infact they are going up! Take a look at this food price chart...deflation???
Don Harding from the Melbourne Institute said the inflation gauge suggested the official consumer price index (CPI) had fallen by around 0.64% over the fourth quarter.
That would bring the annual pace down sharply to around 3.3%, from 5.0% in the third quarter, which had been the highest since 2001.
However, measures of core inflation were not so promising. The gauge measuring prices excluding fuel, fruit and vegetables climbed 0.6% in December, lifting the annual pace of inflation to 3.6%, from 3.5% in November.
The trimmed mean, which excludes the biggest price changes in any month, also rose 0.2% in December, while the annual rate rose back to 3.6%, from 2.9% the month before.
Contributing most to the overall change in December were price falls for automotive fuel, and fruit and vegetables. The falls were partially offset by price rises in rents, household supplies, and holiday travel and accommodation.
The government can only manipulate and deceive us to a limit, but at some point the cat will be let out of the bag. With the collapse of the UK banking system, the pound is dropping like a fly making their purchasing power significantly lower! Add to that the printing of more pounds to help recover, what does that mean? an increase in prices, get the domino effect? That is the "unofficial" bankruptcy of the UK... who is next? I wonder
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