Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
If there is a rebound I would not expect anything massive. Just a bit of a relief rally or retest(nevertheless tradeable) before the next leg down starts in the weeks ahead.
Will be keeping a very close watch on any rally for evidence to take up further short positions or close out existing ones, if analysis is wrong.
lbaz9 said:
If there is a rebound I would not expect anything massive. Just a bit of a relief rally or retest(nevertheless tradeable) before the next leg down starts in the weeks ahead.
Will be keeping a very close watch on any rally for evidence to take up further short positions or close out existing ones, if analysis is wrong.
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Citigroup Upgrades
GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup gold price upgrades may give bargain hunters added courage as metal comes under pressure from USD strength; spot $635/oz, down around $8 since NY close after Fed Bernanke's comments overnight raise rate hike expectations. But some players saying USD rebound not overly convincing, suggesting temporary reprieve in overall downtrend. That view in line with Citigroup's upgrades to $660 for 2H06, $700 for 2007, $750 for 2008. "The rationale behind these upgrades is that gold's fundamental appeal as a hedge against inflation and (US dollar) weakness should be reinstated after the current period of instability."(JAD)
They specifically upgraded NCM and LHG with price targets of about $30.00 and $3.75 respectively. Big premiums on todays prices. Gold, oil and uranium still seem to be the favoured place to park cash at the moment. Dips like today provide long term players a buying opportunity.
Citigroup Upgrades
GMT [Dow Jones] Citigroup gold price upgrades may give bargain hunters added courage as metal comes under pressure from USD strength; spot $635/oz, down around $8 since NY close after Fed Bernanke's comments overnight raise rate hike expectations. But some players saying USD rebound not overly convincing, suggesting temporary reprieve in overall downtrend. That view in line with Citigroup's upgrades to $660 for 2H06, $700 for 2007, $750 for 2008. "The rationale behind these upgrades is that gold's fundamental appeal as a hedge against inflation and (US dollar) weakness should be reinstated after the current period of instability."(JAD)
They specifically upgraded NCM and LHG with price targets of about $30.00 and $3.75 respectively. Big premiums on todays prices. Gold, oil and uranium still seem to be the favoured place to park cash at the moment. Dips like today provide long term players a buying opportunity.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Read a interesting post on Kitco
Basically it boiled down to , that while base metal prices climbed at a greater rate than POG , then naturally "base metal" miners will out perform "gold miners" but as base metals decline from their tops and after POG settles it should go the other way round
Read a interesting post on Kitco
Basically it boiled down to , that while base metal prices climbed at a greater rate than POG , then naturally "base metal" miners will out perform "gold miners" but as base metals decline from their tops and after POG settles it should go the other way round
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Hey Ducati, jog on over to have a look at this story -
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...lip-under-radar/2006/06/05/1149359675190.html
I've seen these debates rage for the last 5 or 6 years, and so far the Gold bugs are way out in front. If you don't like the stuff then don't be part of the greatest fundamental shift in world economics since The Great Depression.
Snip from the article -
"The sort of money that is chasing this market higher is not hot money," said Ross Norman, director of the BullionDesk.com.
"It is slow steady investment by pension funds and long-term buyers. Anybody who thinks this market is about to head sharply lower is reading it badly," he said.
Ignore at your peril
Jogging off now
ducati916 said:
Hey Ducati, jog on over to have a look at this story -
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...lip-under-radar/2006/06/05/1149359675190.html
I've seen these debates rage for the last 5 or 6 years, and so far the Gold bugs are way out in front. If you don't like the stuff then don't be part of the greatest fundamental shift in world economics since The Great Depression.
Snip from the article -
"The sort of money that is chasing this market higher is not hot money," said Ross Norman, director of the BullionDesk.com.
"It is slow steady investment by pension funds and long-term buyers. Anybody who thinks this market is about to head sharply lower is reading it badly," he said.
Ignore at your peril
Jogging off now
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
As a novice, I don't understand gold.
I mean, yeah, OK, constant demand for jewellery etc, but for gold to = money then whatever the owners of gold are willing to hoard, trade and part with their gold to buy (food, oil, medicine?) then surely that commodity is more valuable than gold? Why not invest in that commodity in the first place?
Maybe to buy gold is just another way of saying "I don't know what is going to happen next, so I wanna be liquid."
Therefore price of gold = level of uncertainty about the future.
Is this true?
Moses
As a novice, I don't understand gold.
I mean, yeah, OK, constant demand for jewellery etc, but for gold to = money then whatever the owners of gold are willing to hoard, trade and part with their gold to buy (food, oil, medicine?) then surely that commodity is more valuable than gold? Why not invest in that commodity in the first place?
Maybe to buy gold is just another way of saying "I don't know what is going to happen next, so I wanna be liquid."
Therefore price of gold = level of uncertainty about the future.
Is this true?
Moses
Porper
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Well I am now a Gold Bull again.The retrace to almost 600 is a buy signal as far as I am concerned,(Elliot Wave counts), also somebody I hold in high regard has said the probability of a bounce is high. I have a target up to 700, so good for a quick swing trade, especially in the lower priced stocks that have been hit severely recently, maybe BGF or PSV although I don't hold either yet.
Then I'll be putting my Bear suit back on for a big plunge again.
wayneL said:
Well I am now a Gold Bull again.The retrace to almost 600 is a buy signal as far as I am concerned,(Elliot Wave counts), also somebody I hold in high regard has said the probability of a bounce is high. I have a target up to 700, so good for a quick swing trade, especially in the lower priced stocks that have been hit severely recently, maybe BGF or PSV although I don't hold either yet.
Then I'll be putting my Bear suit back on for a big plunge again.
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
I'm seeing a turn in sentiment. Have you seen it, the past 2 days? All of a sudden, there a bullish reports...No one is saying that it's the bottom, but all of these upgrades about the future POG...Analysts are seeing the correction as part of a larger bull market by my guestimation.
I'm seeing a turn in sentiment. Have you seen it, the past 2 days? All of a sudden, there a bullish reports...No one is saying that it's the bottom, but all of these upgrades about the future POG...Analysts are seeing the correction as part of a larger bull market by my guestimation.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
I've noticed the same Kennas, look at all the major sites that track world markets, all of a sudden the wording is positive whereas the last few weeks have been all doom and gloom.
Maybe all the big guys have opened their positions and want the market to go up again
I've noticed the same Kennas, look at all the major sites that track world markets, all of a sudden the wording is positive whereas the last few weeks have been all doom and gloom.
Maybe all the big guys have opened their positions and want the market to go up again
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Are you talkin conspiracy ctp? Or, just the herd following the leader?
Doesn't take much does it? Could swing the other way with one report though, but the concensus definately seems to be towards higher prices in the future. I am really looking forward to seeing how this folds out. If only I didn't have so much riding on it!!!
And, please send me a crystal ball c/o The Black Cat,, Brunswick St, Fitzroy, VIC.
Are you talkin conspiracy ctp? Or, just the herd following the leader?
Doesn't take much does it? Could swing the other way with one report though, but the concensus definately seems to be towards higher prices in the future. I am really looking forward to seeing how this folds out. If only I didn't have so much riding on it!!!
And, please send me a crystal ball c/o The Black Cat,, Brunswick St, Fitzroy, VIC.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
I don't know what I'm saying really, but it just seems to me that all the media / market reports / commentaters etc have been "ganging up" on the markets, in the sense that they seem to focus on all the negative news, and even spin positive signs in a negative light....
Almost like a self-fulfilling prophesy...anyway, let's see what happens this week...
I don't know what I'm saying really, but it just seems to me that all the media / market reports / commentaters etc have been "ganging up" on the markets, in the sense that they seem to focus on all the negative news, and even spin positive signs in a negative light....
Almost like a self-fulfilling prophesy...anyway, let's see what happens this week...
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Oh yeah ctp! Self fullfilling prophecies ARE market psychology! We'll see.
Oh yeah ctp! Self fullfilling prophecies ARE market psychology! We'll see.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
I think this 'correction' has more legs yet, possibly to the last resistance level @ $570, as we are entering the traditional low period for gold and stocks generally. As for the upbeat talk about bottoms forming and being a good time to buy are, for me, signals to stay well clear of gold stocks for a while yet. Wait untill gold is so unloved again that everyone is calling an end to the gold bull. Needs a wall of worry. If it stays true to form, don't hold your breath for a resumption of the bull till August/ September, with sideways action in the meantime.
That's not to say there won't be bargains to be had between now & then. Also expect to see some m&a activity to start coming out of the woodwork with these lower prices. I still think a 4 figure pog within the next 8 months is achievable, but not just yet. But when it starts again, hold on to your hats!:
My top gold stocks picks
BDG
DOM
LHG
SBM
LSG
OXR
I think this 'correction' has more legs yet, possibly to the last resistance level @ $570, as we are entering the traditional low period for gold and stocks generally. As for the upbeat talk about bottoms forming and being a good time to buy are, for me, signals to stay well clear of gold stocks for a while yet. Wait untill gold is so unloved again that everyone is calling an end to the gold bull. Needs a wall of worry. If it stays true to form, don't hold your breath for a resumption of the bull till August/ September, with sideways action in the meantime.
That's not to say there won't be bargains to be had between now & then. Also expect to see some m&a activity to start coming out of the woodwork with these lower prices. I still think a 4 figure pog within the next 8 months is achievable, but not just yet. But when it starts again, hold on to your hats!
:My top gold stocks picks
BDG
DOM
LHG
SBM
LSG
OXR
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
August gold about to break 600:
August gold about to break 600
:
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
on my comsec its $593 ATM
on my comsec its $593 ATM
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Heading to $550, the next decent support line. Remember it ran from $500 to $720 in a couple of days! Unhedged gold companies are still raking it in at the moment. Looking forward to upgrades across the board in the comming months.
Heading to $550, the next decent support line. Remember it ran from $500 to $720 in a couple of days! Unhedged gold companies are still raking it in at the moment. Looking forward to upgrades across the board in the comming months.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Old support was at $550 but had resistance at $570, which should be new support, if you believe technical analysis. Current spot price @ $592 and falling, acting like a commodity instead of a currency.
Look out for a merger between Anglogold & Newmont too.
Old support was at $550 but had resistance at $570, which should be new support, if you believe technical analysis. Current spot price @ $592 and falling, acting like a commodity instead of a currency.
Look out for a merger between Anglogold & Newmont too.
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Anglo Gold and Newmont???? Good rumour. Takeover or merger? Whose sp will benefit?
Anglo Gold and Newmont???? Good rumour. Takeover or merger? Whose sp will benefit?
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