Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Whiskers · 19 September 2008

cuttlefish said:
Maybe the "plunge protection team" hit gold prior to, and during, AIG and Lehmans, and this was their cover - powder dry again for the next iceberg.

Maybe this, maybe that. Time will tell but I'll stay long. This has only confirmed for me the view that if gold decides to leave the station it will be over the horizon before those on the platform have noticed it left.

Collapse of the USD isn't a two way street imo - i.e. if the USD goes into a proper cliff dive there won't be a 'recovery party' in two years time - the world will have changed and we'll live in a different global economy dominated by different players and a different form of currency (not necessarily gold but it will feature in the transition).

I'm with you cuttlefish. From a TA perspective I think this is settling back into wave 4 with 5 to come.

You have also highlighed the future lack of production/supply of gold. That cannot be ignored or got around for any length of time.

However, I still believe the USD will go higher before it heads south again but I don't see that harming gold especially not in AUD terms.

The other important point from a TA is it didn't break below the peak of 06.

wayneL · 19 September 2008

Going for a nice gallop into the pit close.

Noice.

noirua · 19 September 2008

wayneL said:
Going for a nice gallop into the pit close.

Noice.

...it's US$1,000 here we come. Dow has turned down 150 points and oil has recovered US$4.

M34N · 19 September 2008

Dropped $60 in over an hour just before, found a floor around $830-840.

What a trading range, this is insane!

explod · 19 September 2008

M34N said:
Dropped $60 in over an hour just before, found a floor around $830-840.

What a trading range, this is insane!

The volatility will increase. What is insane is the Good Ole US of A.

Announced that IAG will be removed from the Dow Index and then "Big Chief Burnin Bush" announces another great package of taxpayers dollar/toilet paper to rescue everything and we repeat "wees all saved"

Of course we have a huge line in the sand to protect up to the US Presidential election.

First, gold was getting noticed by mainstream, and ;

two, The dow sits on a support going back 10 years that if broken next major support would be 7000.

bean · 19 September 2008

bean said:
A few US Gold Index have now filled gaps that they made in December 2005.
I always thought that for them to be able to fill the gaps POG would be about US 550-630. However it appears that needs not be the case. The various US Gold Index have made a significant bottom. POG will follow higher quickly.

The stocks led POG down now they will lead it up
But POG may have huge daily moves but mainly up.
The train has left the station!!!
(but remember we may have to have a few stops along the way for the GM markets. And to Pick up survivors, late comers and new believers )

Kennas yes I thought POG would drop to US$ 630 or less before a bottom was made as per explanation above.

Note how large the moves are in POG

But a good day yesterday for us goldies
my Portfolio moved 90% higher in a day

Kauri · 19 September 2008

just out of interest, if you had bought Gold at around $1000 when it was being spruiked to $1500 by some notable peeples, the last day or two, astonishing as they are, would have recovered 33% of the 25% you would be down... or is my basic level math astray???

Cneers
...........Kauri

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

bean said:
my Portfolio moved 90% higher in a day

:error:

Kauri · 19 September 2008

any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

Kauri said:
any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

Back to 780-760...

Like an unfaithful lover. Consistently disappointing!!

Give it a week.

Dowdy · 19 September 2008

Kauri said:
any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

it'll get to a low of 830 today, then get to around 880.

The US is only postponing the inevitable crash with all these bailouts

explod · 19 September 2008

Dowdy said:
it'll get to a low of 830 today, then get to around 880.

The US is only postponing the inevitable crash with all these bailouts

Maybe, but looking firm again now. I think the rest of the world is seeing the real picture so it may trise today.

I will not predict medium to short. My humble fundamental says it will continue to gain prominence as a store of wealth for some years to come.

Whiskers · 19 September 2008

Kauri said:
any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

I'm running with a different wave count to you, so if mine is correct it has to run out to a 5 count... probably 4 now... which if correct, must go a bit higher over the next few days before correcting back a bit.

Porper · 19 September 2008

Kauri said:
any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

The retracement to 900 has occured so should go back to around 600

explod · 19 September 2008

Porper said:
The retracement to 900 has occured so should go back to around 600

Yep , on the front page of my newspaper, very good time to sell

So good to be a bug.

explod · 19 September 2008

Dear Jim,

Did you see this article, which includes a surprising quote from the Citigroup analyst?

Gold bugs have been proven correct in the contention that "an overwhelmingly vast and complex pool of nested financial derivatives would ultimately result in cascading defaults and ruin for major portions of the banking system," wrote Citigroup analyst John Hill.

"Frankly, we're surprised that gold is not already at $2,000 per ounce," he added."

Click here to view the full article…

What an upstart. Anyway he's entitled to his opinion.

On Jim Sinclair's site, so we could expect no less.

Ah, well,---- decided not to sell my gold shares after all, after reading the paper properly, looks like gold has a bit further to run. Lost faith in the Burnin Bush fella, and too quick on the draw for me anyway.

An another thing, Isn't that Citigroup in some sort a trouble too?

refined silver · 19 September 2008

Kauri said:
any of the goldie-bugs willing/brave enough to tell us where Gold is headed from here... over the next few trading sessions... before it happens.... or nott???

Cheers
............Kauri

I think you're a bit mixed up! Its your job as a trader to say where its heading for the next few sessions.

We'll tell you where its ultimately headed as the system breaks down. Most gold bugs by definition are focussed on the bigger picture.

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

To tell you the truth I have no idea where its going. I truly don't care. I don't need to know. I just hope everything stays as wild as it has been.

Best of times to be playing a zero sum game!!

Uncle Festivus · 19 September 2008

Trembling Hand said:
Back to 780-760...

Like an unfaithful lover. Consistently disappointing!!

Give it a week.

TH, really not sure where your scornful scepticism is coming from, but even some simple maths shows that there is money to made here, long & short (yes it's ok for a gold bug to short ) -

Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 would give you a return of 15%, for the week. Anything else come close to that?

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

Uncle Festivus said:
TH, really not sure where your scornful scepticism is coming from, but even some simple maths shows that there is money to made here, long & short

Just my punt. Simply because of the volume. Who ever was on the other side (if it wasn't covering) will not be folding that easy. they never do.

Uncle Festivus said:
Picking some arbitrary point in time , say last week when gold was $735, to todays close around $850 would give you a return of 15%, for the week. Anything else come close to that?

Not sure what your point is. But I will be quiet from here. I must be rubbing the wrong way.

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