Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[eddyeagle]

Interesting article on gold here from sharecafe:

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=9805

 

[BentRod]

You probably mean suport

Nope, I consider that resistance, I'm short.:

 

[mfp]

I got into SGX Wednesday and got out yesterday, when gold was $832, for a neat $1K profit...feeling pretty smug right now...gold $783 as I write. Also bought into banks near yesterday's lows after selling near Tuesday's highs. So far so good..but I have probably just jinxed myself.

 

[Temjin]

I never thought would see silver at below USD $13 / oz again. Just look at the US Dollar chart, extreme overbought but the momentum is stagnating (not increasing and not declining). Here comes a resistance level at near 78, highly likely it will bounce back down at that point to kill its overbought condition. Of course, unless everyone suddenly start to think US Dollar is one of the best asset to keep because it is producing a negative yield. Another case of technical trend buying regardless of the fundamentals.

 

[Kauri]

For what it is worth, I think it was ML that came out today with a $745 3month target for gold, also an assertion that the $US has bottomed, and incidentally that the cable is headed for 1.79... unless of course I herd wrong, in which case,...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

Nope, I consider that resistance, I'm short.:

I hope you've cashed in your short BentRod.

My most favoured position at the moment is that this is the end of a significant correction and it'll be generally up from here for quite awhile... mind you though, some of the minor wave corrections along the way may be pretty savage.

The caveat, (due to my relative inexperience) my less likely possibility, is that this is not the end of significant wave C, but a lower degree wave 1 of 3, in which case it would kick up for a few days or so and revisit the 800 level support and momentarily break it to finish wave C, as bean suggests, before pushing upwards to new highs.

Well, didn't go exactly to plan, but after having a good look at how it's unfolded now...

:band

I am gonna enphatically declare the bottom (end of wave 2) is put in.

 

[BentRod]

I hope you've cashed in your short BentRod

Nope still short.

Stop at breakeven- 803.15

 

[Sean K]

That brief rally looks done for the minute, and pressure building on $800 ish. Next stop $775 ish?

Been relentless.

In fact, breaking 805 might send it there.

Unfortunately, I missed some of that as I had to go out for some lomo picadas and nuttie martinis.

Interesting recovery, but failing just as quickly.

Looks like there'll be plenty of resistance around $800 now.


Maybe buy at the end of this week Bean? Or, next week maybe?

 

[Sean K]

Anyone think season gold movements might kick in this year?

Could be triggered by USD falling back and oil recovery? NZ attacking Australia?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Spooked by shadows now.

Whipsaw markets & flight to qaulity.

$50 daily ranges. Currency manipulation. Oversold. All move to the other side of the Titanic at once. Imbalances. Fear. Value. Store of 'wealth'. What is wealth? What is money? Who decides what it is and when to make it? Panic. Uncertainty.

Trust in your central bank - they will look after you?

 

[Sean K]

Spooked by shadows now.

Whipsaw markets & flight to qaulity.

$50 daily ranges. Currency manipulation. Oversold. All move to the other side of the Titanic at once. Imbalances. Fear. Value. Store of 'wealth'. What is wealth? What is money? Who decides what it is and when to make it? Panic. Uncertainty.

Trust in your central bank - they will look after you?

I should have gone more cash some time ago, but disregarded my own advice. I think I was worried ANZ might go bust! eeeeek!

Interesting times that's for sure.

Not good for the heart though.

A story for the young whipper snappers coming through in 20 years...

 

[bean]

Unfortunately, I missed some of that as I had to go out for some lomo picadas and nuttie martinis.

Interesting recovery, but failing just as quickly.

Looks like there'll be plenty of resistance around $800 now.


Maybe buy at the end of this week Bean? Or, next week maybe?

Waiting patiently
Averaged in on MMN on the way down my only holding position.
And that's put me 2nd on the stock tipping!!!! (expect to drop down ladder next week but might be back up there by the end of the month)

Bought and sold thursday
I have plenty of powder to buy.
And may start nibbling when the time is right or bargains start to appear

Interesting to note that when the DOW rises gold indexes in the US seem to have a down day and vise versa been happening more frequently the past month.

Now the US markets may be near the top and next leg down.
So sometime next week if they start to fall will the golds if they are still falling continue to fall or break away?

Are we near, to that time when Gold stocks and general markets break from each other?

 

[cuttlefish]

Definitely an interesting technical zone for gold and at the moment not looking too promising having broken down through the $840 level and now testing the top of the $780-$820 band of support. The sharpness of the moves down certainly makes it look weak on the charts.

Definitely looking shaky testing the bottom of that support band now - though I haven't quite given up on it yet.

If it does push down from here then I'd be starting to agree with the WP about downside targets - could head down into the low 700's possible support around the $680 mark. If it does I think it will be fairly short lived - possibly less than a month - with a fairly sharp bounce back up into the high 700's/low 800's but will require consolidation then before tackling the higher marks again. I'd probably be calling the gold bull to start mid next year rather than now if thats the case. I'm still clinging to the hope that the current 780/820 band will hold and form a base though.

If it does a move down into the 680's it will have a psychological effect of breaking the back of a lot of the current gold bullishness that is out there - taking a bit more of the spec money out of the market for now, and put quite a few projects on indefinite hold, and also cause a few existing production operations to shut down - all having a positive effect of reducing supply and strengthening any subsequent run.

explod I think your call of waiting till post the US elections before we see any real action on the USD/gold front is looking like a good one.

 

[cuttlefish]

Interesting article on gold here from sharecafe:

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=9805

cheers eddy a good read - sums up the situation well imo. So the flight out of the USD into the Euro and other currencies has just been going from the frying pan into the fire - and now they're all headed back into the frying pan. So when the USD heads south again the money has more chance of flowing directly into gold this time rather than other currencies.

 

[GreatPig]

An update on the weekly ASX GOLD chart. It's now looking like a bearish triangle, with a downside target somewhere in the low A$70s.

Mind you, the last time it looked like a bearish triangle (Mar 06 - Jul 07), prices actually broke upwards to a new all-time high . If that pattern repeats, with the old high becoming the new 50% level, then the upside target is around A$135.

So it's obvious it's either going to go up or down, unless it happens to go sideways :. Either way, watch for the triangle breakout.

GP

 

[Uncle Festivus]

cheers eddy a good read - sums up the situation well imo. So the flight out of the USD into the Euro and other currencies has just been going from the frying pan into the fire - and now they're all headed back into the frying pan. So when the USD heads south again the money has more chance of flowing directly into gold this time rather than other currencies.

Yes, what once was a 3 horse race suddenly is back to the old 2 horse race with a late scratching after the ring-in pulled up lame and it's owners started arguing which way around the race track it should go.

Hang on, the stewards have also been asking questions about the other horse too, something about being doped up to the eyeballs with steroids (credit) & excess baggage (debt)

 

[MRC & Co]

Quite a bit of bearish sentiment coming into this thread.

Anyone looking for the fade?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Quite a bit of bearish sentiment coming into this thread.

Anyone looking for the fade?

A capitulation will do - then back to trend?

 

[kbxk508]

If it does a move down into the 680's it will have a psychological effect of breaking the back of a lot of the current gold bullishness that is out there - taking a bit more of the spec money out of the market for now, and put quite a few projects on indefinite hold, and also cause a few existing production operations to shut down - all having a positive effect of reducing supply and strengthening any subsequent run.

cuttlefish, you make a good point - these prices cannot be sustained without it impacting on the supply side, not to mention that political tensions are rising as well.

I thought low 800's was it, but shorts keep pushing it to the brink. MACD is starting to resemble MACD for a lot of the gold stocks. Even if drops to the low 700's, 600's I don't see it staying down there too long.

kbxk508

 

[Uncle Festivus]

There are some interesting dynamics in play now - the falling $AU is keeping the AU price above $900. An interesting scenario would involve the $US gold price increasing (counter rally to DX?) while the $AU struggles to remake 98c due to lowering of interest rates, resulting in a 'slingshot' leverage for gold in $AU terms?

Getting closer - is it safe yet?