Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[tayser]

Temjin: are you using a live account with MetaTrader4 to get both Gold and Silver or is it a demo?

I'm using the bog-standard Metaquotes demo server and I only get gold...

 

[josjes]

I notice there is distinct rotation started already from Banks/Financials to Commodities stocks since last Friday. BHP breaks $40 easily with strong volume and support. Gold also break $907 easily and steadily moving up. The banks got hit heavily all down 3-5%. I think we might have another upleg for gold going with target $960, dare I say that 4 figure numbers. Trouble brewing in Financials ? More skeleton in the closet coming out ??

 

[Kauri]

Temjin: are you using a live account with MetaTrader4 to get both Gold and Silver or is it a demo?

I'm using the bog-standard Metaquotes demo server and I only get gold...

this thread.. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9117 posts 8 and 10 should get it for you..

Cheers
.......Kauri

 

[tayser]

merci beaucoup.

 

[Kauri]

If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[explod]

If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??

Cheers
..........Kauri

Inextricably. The $US index is showing distinct weakness and the financials all bad. Silver rasing its head. What more can one add???

 

[barrett]

If Gold and the $ are somewhat linked currently it may be time for a shuffle soon??

Cheers
..........Kauri

Yeah we could all end up like frodo halfway through return of the king.. this breakout on the hourly should keep incy wincy away for another day or two though.. b getting underway?

 

[josjes]

Volume is high on the upside. Silver is even better. RSI is showing higher high with lower price at the bottom. See chart.
I think we are heading back up at least 960 for the next target resistance. Then a target to $1024 in May is good probability. Short seller out of the way for now.

 

[barrett]

Oops.. 910 right now, not looking so flash now on the hourly

 

[Sean K]

Oops.. 910 right now, not looking so flash now on the hourly

Reports that the IMF is going to sell 400 tons of gold might be putting it under pressure. I thought there were agreements of how much and when gold could be sold? Maybe that's just for CBs.

 

[qmanthebarbarian]

Reports that the IMF is going to sell 400 tons of gold might be putting it under pressure. I thought there were agreements of how much and when gold could be sold? Maybe that's just for CBs.

My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. ie. it will allow increased supply up to a point. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this doesn't mean IMF sales won't skew the gold price.

correct me if wrong

 

[Sean K]

My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. e.g. it allows volatility. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this is hazy - IMF sales could still skew gold price.

correct me if wrong

Sounds like it just needs approval in this case.

IMF to sell gold

The IMF said it will sell 403.3 metric tons of gold, currently valued at more than $13 billion, and cut substantial costs as part of an efficiency drive.

In a statement on Monday, managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the IMF had made "difficult but necessary choices" to close an income shortfall and make the agency more efficient through a "new and sustainable income and expenditure framework."

The proposal faces at least two key hurdles. The U.S. Congress must approve the IMF's proposal to sell gold. Most member countries will also have to enact legislation to expand the IMF's investment authority.

The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces, or 3,217 metric tons, of gold. As of late February, those holdings amounted to $95.2 billion at current market prices, according to information published on the fund's Web site. The IMF holds the third largest gold reserve after the U.S. and German governments.

 

[josjes]

IMF Selling, Gold lease rates negatives, interest rates up/down, deflation/inflation/stagflation, Goldman Sachs prdicted gold underperform shares etc etc. I think these are just short term market noises.

The longer and seasoned player you are in this mega bull market you will learn to ignore these noises, and stay invested. I have learned my lesson well and painfully (I liquidated 5% of my gold holding back in late March to my deep regret now).

I am keeping gold with a view of it reaches $1500-$1600 by next year. Yes I know that is a big call, but look back last year in March (price $640) when people were derided with incredulity whenever prediction of $1000 is tossed up.

I am buying at this level (900-920) and aggresively when it dips sub-900. My personal view, it is difficult being patient, but it's the best way to big gains. As long term holder, by going in and out you will lose your position and miss big move.

 

[rederob]

My understanding is that the CB agreement limits the max that could be sold, not the min. ie. it will allow increased supply up to a point. IMF sales will be within the allowed amount by the CB agreement but this doesn't mean IMF sales won't skew the gold price.

correct me if wrong

IMF is not a party to Central Bank agreement and can sell as much gold as they have whenever they want.

 

[explod]

IMF is not a party to Central Bank agreement and can sell as much gold as they have whenever they want.

Russian and China are just waiting for large amounts to buy, they have to limit purchases so as not to move the price. As in the past any large amounts will be absorbed quickly.

I think from memory, (but it is sourced back in this thread) current sales are in excess of 1,000 tons p.a

The main object of the IMF announcement is to create a perception and keep gold at this level for awhile, and it will probably do that.

20th April till 5th May is annually a strong period for gold accumulation.

We will see.

 

[catch.profit]

dear all

i am new to this forum

where i can get the daily buy and sell level for gold and silver

regds
catch.profit

 

[Kauri]

Russian and China are just waiting for large amounts to buy, they have to limit purchases so as not to move the price. As in the past any large amounts will be absorbed quickly.

I think from memory, (but it is sourced back in this thread) current sales are in excess of 1,000 tons p.a

The main object of the IMF announcement is to create a perception and keep gold at this level for awhile, and it will probably do that.

20th April till 5th May is annually a strong period for gold accumulation.

We will see.

I f the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[explod]

I f the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
Cheers
...........Kauri

The IMF(puppet front) pretty well do what the seppos want. The seppos say they dont want, when infact they haveto. Bit of a Maxwell Smart really.

And some of the players dont' want to get together because the other party has nothing of value (intrinsic) to offer.

 

[barrett]

I f the russians and chinese want to buy large amounts and the imf wants to sell large amounts... why don't they get together... or are they only allowed to trade on the punters market??
why does the imf want to suppress the pog??
Cheers
...........Kauri

The IMF's balance sheet is around $400m in the hole.. basically it's broke so it's going to flog off about 10% of its gold to fill the gap. It's obliged to do that on market according to the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
Gold price suppression is a secondary goal at best as they plan on selling it gradually over a period of several years. But I'd say the US won't exactly be objecting to the sale..

The sale has to fall within the 500t quota for the central banks set up under the European Gold Agreement. From that point of view it is potentially slightly bearish because without those sales they mightn't reach their quota.

But.. past IMF sales have been marked by increases in the gold price rather than decreases.... This time the 'second-tier' central banks as well as private investors are likely to more than mop up the supply.

I agree with Axel Merk's comment (of Merk Hard Currency Fund), "It's not something that's going to rock the market. I think the market can absorb it. And in the long term, for the market, it's a healthy development that gold is moving more towards private hands,"

http://www.forbes.com/markets/curre...f-price-markets-comm-cx_vr_0408markets09.html

 

[Whiskers]

Rate-cutting cycle may be over. Sell Gold.

FED RATE-CUTTING CYCLE MAY BE OVER
RBC Capital Markets says summer gold correction doldrums are coming
In a research report, RBC Capital Markets analysts feel that investors should consider taking profits in gold ahead of the traditionally weak summer season and then take advantage of an anticipated rise later in the year.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 09 Apr 2008

RENO, NV -

RBC Capital Markets Tuesday urged investors to crystallize profits now and "take advantage of gold at lower levels within the June-July period."

In his analysis, Michael Curran noted, that over the past 28 years, gold has typically outperformed during the months of April and May, usually followed by a seasonal slowdown in the summer months, "and an upsurge in the early fall."

"We believe investors should take profits ahead of the end of a Fed rate cutting cycle and ahead of the seasonally quiet period for gold and gold equities in June, July and early August," Curran wrote. "Since the broader market began to react to the uncertainty over the US subprime mortgage crisis on August 14th, and the sell-off of all financial securities began, we believe that gold has discounted in the uncertainty in financial markets and the implied inflation expectation associated with rising commodity prices. We think recent news of possible IMF gold sales up to 400 tonnes are priced in at current levels, and would have limited impact on the market."

"On the back of this rationale, we advise clients to sell into the typically strong April-May timeframe, ahead of the seasonal slowdown usually observed in the early summer months," he said.

‘Combining our view that a seasonal slowdown for gold demand is around the corner in the summer months, and the possibility that the U.S. fed rate cutting cycle may come to an end shortly, we believe the timing is right for investors to take profits in the short term in gold and gold equities.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=50435&sn=Detail