Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Real1ty]

Good for you Nick and your business too, well done.

However I think you underestimate some of the good calls on this thread and the fact that it is learning by involvement. It is good also to sign up to a service like yours and be walked through trading decisions but at the end of the day each individual to get the best in the long haul needs to fend for himself at some stage.


I could also go back to some of my posts, and particularly a week ago and point to cautionary signs.

The correction was very well overdue and the area of support is showing itself to some degree now. Having said that I think whilst it is here we could see a further pummelling and that too was discussed in the last day or so.

Anyway good on you but the old "told you so" up front does not do you justice.

Cheers explod

In defense of Nick, explod, he wasn't as much going down the "told you so line" but more so pointing out to those that had said the charts gave no warning.

It only goes to show that there are so many different ways to interpret things and no way is better than another way, IF it works for you.

 

[explod]

In defense of Nick, explod, he wasn't as much going down the "told you so line" but more so pointing out to those that had said the charts gave no warning.

It only goes to show that there are so many different ways to interpret things and no way is better than another way, IF it works for you.

Of course the charts dont give a warning, (that is why we say "follow the trend until it ends" of "bends" and that is why we discuss fundamentals and every other angle we can get our hands on. I gather Nick must do the same.

It is easy after the event to point out where one is right or wrong. To be fair we need to look at and ballance the successes against all the ones that did not work. In that I am not saying that Nick got any wrong. But there were stocks going in many directions over the last week, thats the volatility we expect at times like this. If I was critical I am sorry for that but got the feeling he was being critical of some of our methods and just trying to ballance the scales.

I think Nick, from all reports, is a good operator but there are many who are not and believe me the financial advice industry like us like a hole in the head.

 

[Nick Radge]

explod,
Please don't go and put words in my mouth. It was clearly stated that there was no way that charts could call this collapse. That is incorrect. I clearly did suggest it and it was done without hindsight.

However, I am not saying, as you incorrectly portend, that charts work all of the time. Do not suggest that of my post is about the merits of TA. It is about the incorrect assessment of this one event.

I am the first to acknowledge that my analysis is far from correct at all times but being right/wrong is the least of a traders worries. But this is not the debate at hand.

 

[GreatPig]

Here's a chart of the ASX GOLD stock I posted on another forum back in January, along with the current chart.

I'm just amazed that I actually got something right for once.

GP

 

[Sean K]

Here's a chart of the ASX GOLD stock I posted on another forum back in January, along with the current chart.

I'm just amazed that I actually got something right for once.

GP

Gp, I can't see how anything in that post is right.

And, to Nick, and anyone else posting projections, please enclose every other forecast you have made for the last 10 or so years so we know how well your projections go.

I am tired of seeing all the success, without the failures....

I think we'd learn just as much from a failed trade from the occasional good one.



Of cource, we all love the education....

 

[gfresh]

While a lot of 'I told you so', and 'no you didn't' arguments are entertaining to read..

What are the thoughts on future direction ? While there seems to be a lot of de-leveraging by the major financials back into cash at the moment.. and there may be a little bit of general market calm for a few days. I imagine the short-term trend will continue. However - if/when the next big crises comes I'd imagine there may be quite a rush back into gold as a tangible of last resort, as there has been every other time there has been a crisis in the last few months? Or now will people be a little bit more cautious shifting into gold?

The constant down-talk of gold over the last few days to me suggests that it's a nicely orchestrated move to sell it down, and soon enough there is going to be a 'surprise' about-turn. Just as the 'talk up' of gold happened right at the peak, surely the 'talk down' must mean there will be a reversal soon?

The end game of deflation talk is rife out there right now in some readings. Will this mean gold will resume a march a long-term trend downwards again? Or will gold remain a 'flight to safety' and remain bouyant if such a scenario were to eventuate?

 

[Sean K]

What are the thoughts on future direction?

While the Fed keeps rates so low, or intends to lower them, then POG should stay high. Also, while POO looks to be steady, or worse case increasing, adding to inflation, POG should be supported. Also, while there is potential for geopolitical disaster and the realisation of, then comfort in alternative value out of USD is a must. Lowering interest rates, or holding below 5 ish only adds to gold's funnies.

 

[grace]

Having never owned physical gold before, I am interested to know where members store their gold and why. I am located country QLD with no bullion sellers closeby!

We have cashed in some real estate (thinking the market should be close to its high) and have it sitting in the bank (well actually, a couple of banks to spread the risk).

Thanks in advance!

 

[MRC & Co]

..

What are the thoughts on future direction ?

Short-term future direction, I will not try to predict and I honestly dont beleive anybody can with any great degree of accuracy.

I am now all out of gold, based on my strategy, however, beleive long-term, high inflation and more economic uncertainty (globally) will surely push POG higher than the 1000s.

Until then, I wait for a change in momentum and a bottom of this commodity shake out!

 

[GreatPig]

I can't see how anything in that post is right.

You can't see how the price of the GOLD stock got to A$110? The second chart shows it closing at $110.58 on 17th March.

I am tired of seeing all the success, without the failures

I don't think anyone is saying they're right all the time.

GP

 

[GreatPig]

I am located country QLD with no bullion sellers closeby!

You can buy allocated or unallocated gold from the Perth Mint using their depository service. In the case of allocated, they store it there and charge you a regular fee to do so.

The alternative is to have it physically delivered and store it yourself, perhaps in a bank's safety deposit boxes.

Or you could put it in a chest and bury it somewhere, drawing an obscure little map with an 'X' a number of paces to the right of a big tree that's hit by the first rays of the morning sun at the autumn equinox...

GP

 

[refined silver]

I don't like to blow my trumpet but you guys keep slagging off charts without any basis of fact. Perhaps the problem is that you can't read the charts? I suggest there was a lot of evidence of a near term collapse on the charts. I am happy for any subscriber of mine to verify. I stated back on the 11th March that commodities were close to collapse. I also stated exactly WHY this would occur.

I reiterated on 18th March with Silver with this exact quote; " 'last one out turn off the lights'."

I suggested on 12th March that Newcrest (NCM) had the ability to trade to $29.00.

I suggested on 13th March that (Fortescue) FMG could trade to $5.00. That one was sent out publicly and it showed how to get short accordingly.

I suggested on the 5th March that Centennial (CEY) could fall to $3.60 and shoed how subscribers could short the stock.

Perhaps its a case of reading charts correctly?

Did you call the breakout from the 18month trading range in August 07, and was this your first top call in that rally since then?

If you called any intermediate tops in the rally from $650 to $1030, like the shortterm top at $840, did you get you clients back in at the $780 bottom or did they miss the next $250 rally because you had them out? (And thats of course if you hadn't called a top much earlier.)

Another idiot newsletter writer was being touted here a while ago, as getting top calls correct, however on a closer examination he had been calling for a top continuously for the first 3 years of the gold bull market, and then of the 5 major gold rallies since 2000 he had missed 3 entirely calling tops all the way up, and the other two he had called a bottom at the bottom of an established sideways trading range, but called a top at the top of that trading range missing 70% of the rally. Hence his overall record was 0/100% for 3 rallies and 30/100 for the last two. Hardly inspiring!

Like Kennas said, if you called the rest correctly then show it, don't just post one call. Also show where in 2000/2001 you had the foresight to call for $1000 Gold or higher, there are a few that did and these are the ones that deserve listening to.

Finally if its a case of reading charts probably, one of the most basic rules is: "Buy fishing lines, sell rhino horns". The current Gold chart is a fishing line, and hence a buy. It may not be the very bottom, but it is at least time to start layering in buying.

 

[CamKawa]

What are the thoughts on future direction ?

Have a listen to this

Real Player http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.ram
Windows Media http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.asx

Source : http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

 

[Progster]

It was clearly stated that there was no way that charts could call this collapse.

Not by me.

Perhaps I posted in the middle of an ongong debate ...

Saying that charts "did not and do not tell the whole story" is merely saying that:

• fundamentals exist
  
• news exists
  
• psychology exists
  
• intervention exists
  
• etc.

and no, all those things are not perfectly and efficiently reflected in the chart ahead of the move. (Though they may be approximately reflected in the chart after the move.)

In any case, I use charts all the time - who doesn't? My comment was not a shot at any person or method, nor did it have any relation to any previous discussion here. It was written as a simple literal fact, and offered as a reminder that, sometimes at least, a good course of action can be arrived at based on synthesizing information other than price bars.

Best regards to all here - I'm sure I'll learn a great deal as I get the opportunity to read through these forums. Personally, I think there might be easier triples from here than POG, but I'm certainly not saying it couldn't happen. I would say though that if one wants to consider whether POG can triple from here or not, and in what timeframe, there's alot of non-chart considerations to that call, for sure!

 

[Nick Radge]

My response was to the post directed at charts not signaling this collapse. The charts did point to it. That's all I'm trying to state.

 

[chops_a_must]

My response was to the post directed at charts not signaling this collapse. The charts did point to it. That's all I'm trying to state.

I think all Kennas is trying to say is to post times/ a time where you have thought the charts have pointed to a collapse, but did not end up doing so.

Because if you don't, you'll get smart arses like myself, who will bring it up when you bring out only the successes, (if I subscribe to your service, which I probably will eventually) and will remind you of it when these post facto write ups come out...

 

[kransky]

Have a listen to this

Real Player http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.ram
Windows Media http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0322-3b.asx

Source : http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

thanks!

 

[wavepicker]

Gp, I can't see how anything in that post is right.

And, to Nick, and anyone else posting projections, please enclose every other forecast you have made for the last 10 or so years so we know how well your projections go.

....

I thought this is a forum where we can exchange ideas not "Timers Digest"!!!!!!

 

[wavepicker]

Finally if its a case of reading charts probably, one of the most basic rules is: "Buy fishing lines, sell rhino horns". The current Gold chart is a fishing line, and hence a buy. It may not be the very bottom, but it is at least time to start layering in buying.

What is the basis for this bold prediction here? Furthermore by way of charts/fundementals anything you please to use, can you (and anybody else here)come up with a forecast for Gold for the next 1-2 years showing any charts, fundemental analysis showing why that is the most probable scenario.

This thread is called "Gold Price-Where is heading?", afterall.

I will start the ball rolling in the next few days, and hopefully instead of arguments we can have some logical discussion.

As far as Nick Radge goes, I can personally vouch via PM's he sent to me prior the breakout that in his own words he was "Long To The Gunnels In Gold".

Nick is an Elliottician and he makes mistakes, but he also makes some stunning forecasts.

I must say that in May 2006 I made forecast here that Gold would get pummelled(from a chart mind you) and that it would go into a bear market for 1-3 years. It actually trended sideways for 1.5 years after a huge initial selloff, and headed upward earlier than I expected, but at the time that decline was the best trade for the year for me.

In November last year I was calling for a high which I completely stuffed up and to explods credit he managed to make some good coin going largely unoticed at the time.

Early this year in PM's to explod and rederob, I stated that in 2008 the US Dollar will be the biggest winner and I stand by that, while for most of the other asset classes it it will be a year of flameout. Mind you it has started later than I expected but will be interesting to see how it progresses.

Cheers

 

[explod]

A good direction Wavepicker (not meant to be a pun)

Gold will continue on it merry way up for years because fiat money is no longer backed by hard work or tangible assets. The US dollar will continue to fall because the US debt is now beyond their ability to ever repay so they will continue to allow its devaluation to the horror of those holding it. China is a big one. I agree that there will be rallies and the upcoming presidential election will I am sure be a period of intense manipulation for viewing by the sheeple and a rise in the dollar shorter term could well be a part of that.

So for the next few years the dollar will coninue its overall down trend.

Now for my Gold prediction, lets look at the 10 year chart. It would have to drop to 700 (and it could) to fall out of the trend. From 01 the curve up gets steeper, from mid 05 more so then from early 07 a further increase. If it holds and consolidates at the current level then the next up move will be steeper again. It appears that due to some panick of big traders and margin calls on even big players gold was sold down and aided by the PPP to give a good showing to the sheeple of who is boss just in time for Easter. Next week is a whole new time period so on that we will see.

In each of the main shifts gold has approximately doubled to each top and lets say the mean time of each level is two years (a bit of a crib) And that has shortened a bit as we have gone.

My prediction based on the exponential increase of gold so far and on many other fundamental issue is that in the next 18 months we will see a price top of US$1,800 and 12 months from there about $3,500 And there will be more, the currency problems (because the US dollar has been the world reserve) will be years sorting itself out.

Now I make no claim to be a guru, my outlook is based on the many books, opinions, articles, charts and discussions on this forum. And most of all a newsletter I have subscribed to for about 4 years, "The Privateer" One of the best economists I know and it is produced in Australia and has a world wide audience. In fact I found it through a web site in the US. I have no other association so am not pushing its barrow, just a loyal reader.

So I take no other credit than to acknowledge my teachers. And all of us may be wrong as we have been before.

I have learned to have the highest regard for Wavepicker and will give attention to his outlook above.

It will be interesting to see what pans out.