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- 17 January 2007
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Just when you think it couldn't get any worse - derivatives contagion! Although most informed people already knew this, just a matter of timing then?
Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'
Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...796-4D0D-AC9E-D9124B59D436}&dist=MostReadHome
Could we have just 1% of world GDP exit into gold please?
Yep, the $US index continues to weaken at an hour when it is usually ramped up.
1% pwhew Uncle, my old heart could not take it, we will see what pans out, 996.4 as we speak
Looks like Wall St will take a beating tonight on more news of big write downs, just hope the gold equities hang in there. POG giving it a real go at 1k, 997.7 top so far!
For those concerned about their mid tier producers and smaller explorers I notice the Hui Index at an all time high. This had a considerable correction a few days ago and normally takes some consolidation to recover. The US market is finally recognising gold stocks as value. Like sheep our market will soon follow.
Gold has broken through the psychological barrier of $1,000 an ounce for the first time, propelled by fears of inflation and a worldwide banking crisis.
Hedge funds punched the metal higher in a final frenzy of buying as the dollar buckled on global markets, falling to record lows against the euro and Swiss franc.
The latest flight to gold follows the US Federal Reserve's dramatic measures this week to rescue the US mortgage industry, a move seen as evidence that Washington will inflate the money supply to stave off a recession.
Peter Hambro, chairman of Peter Hambro Mining, said gold is regaining its historic role as the ultimate store of value as mainstream investors lose confidence in the entire range of paper currencies.
"When the Federal Reserve starts taking 'bus tickets' as collateral as they did this week, people are bound to see this as inflationary. But the problem is not just the dollar. We're living through a period of competitive devaluations across the world. Everybody is trying to stimulate their economy by driving down their own currencies," he said.
The euro has until now been the automatic default currency for funds seeking an alternative to the dollar, but Mr Hambro said the deep split emerging between the North and South of the euro-zone has raised concerns about the long-term viability of monetary union.
Gold closed at $995.40 on the London PM Fix after falling back. Adjusted for inflation, it is still far below the $850 peak reached in 1980 at the height of the second oil crisis and the Carter malaise. That spike would be near $2,500 in today's terms.
The metal's 30pc surge since late November has caught many bullion experts off guard.
Goldman Sachs has been "short" since $810 an ounce, leaving it nursing hefty losses on a bet still billed as one of its 'top ten' trades for the year.
Gold normally loses momentum after the India's Diwali festival in the late Autumn, and tends to fall hard in February and March. This year it has defied all normal patterns, responding instead to the Fed's emergency rates and the escalating turmoil in the credit system.
"People are worried that Ben Bernanke will flood the economy with cash and set off a massive inflation to avoid a banking crisis," said Ross Norman, director of the bullion.desk.com.
Mr Norman said a powerful new force had entered the gold market with the advent of commodity index funds (worth $200bn) and the exchange traded funds that allow ordinary people to invest easily in metals for the first time.
"This is not a bubble. It isn't hot fast money. It is slow, glacial money from pension funds and institutions pushing up prices because they want a hard asset. Gold may fall back for a few weeks as people get used to this new big figure but any sell-off will be met by strong hard buying. We think it will reach $1,250 this year," he said.
Gold has now quadrupled since Gordon Brown ordered the Bank of England to sell off half of Britain's gold reserves, deeming bullion to be a low-yielding 'relic'. The first fire-sale auction fetched $254 an ounce. The sales have now cost taxpayers over £4.5bn, even after adjusting for offsetting gains on bonds.
Gold has been the lead item on international CNN the past few hours.
Overtaking the stupid US election circus.
Does that mean it's a time to buy, or sell?
The US market is finally recognising gold stocks as value. Like sheep our market will soon follow.
But POG in AUD is what will restrict us in comparison.
Yes, but when the time is right it will be a great pairs trade - long gold, short AUD.
But POG in AUD is what will restrict us in comparison.
I saw this bloke on Lateline Business last night who disagrees with you. The RBA might put rates on hold but the banks may just keep hiking.Absolutely! And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.
I saw this bloke on Lateline Business last night who disagrees with you. The RBA might put rates on hold but the banks may just keep hiking.
Report shows customers stressed
Video - Windows Media broadband
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200803/r232529_930441.asx
Transcript
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200803/s2189073.htm
Absolutely!
And as I stated a while back, I dont see too much more room for IR hikes.
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