Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[MRC & Co]

With volatile stock market sentiment the way it is ATM, a *BLINK* can cost you heaps....

AJ

I know, thats exactly what happened to me! Since I watch closely, I trigger my own stops. Bad mistake, from now on, they are being done electronically with this kind of volatility.

Ah well, if the XMJ continues to fall, I will be counting my lucky stars!

Sentiment has truly turned downwards once again for another run! Surely the big guns are going to come in and start buying up on the cheap sometime in the next few weeks, causing another bounce as per usual.

 

[Temjin]

I know, thats exactly what happened to me! Since I watch closely, I trigger my own stops. Bad mistake, from now on, they are being done electronically with this kind of volatility.

Ah well, if the XMJ continues to fall, I will be counting my lucky stars!

Sentiment has truly turned downwards once again for another run! Surely the big guns are going to come in and start buying up on the cheap sometime in the next few weeks, causing another bounce as per usual.

It's not just equities alone, MRC & Co, almost EVERYTHING got shot down recently, massive liquidation. Gold, silver, platinum, pallatium, all base metals, some soft commodities.

Looks like good buying opportunities for some of the commodities with good long term fundamentals. PMs and food.

 

[MRC & Co]

It's not just equities alone, MRC & Co, almost EVERYTHING got shot down recently, massive liquidation. Gold, silver, platinum, pallatium, all base metals, some soft commodities.

Looks like good buying opportunities for some of the commodities with good long term fundamentals. PMs and food.

Yes, most commodities have been shot down recently.

However, POG did not move much overnight if not mistaken? Yet as their equities are part of the minerals index XMJ, some were taken to the cleaners!

This is what I was referring too.

As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!

No way Im dipping my fingers back into the commodity pot until at least the run into close Friday, when I expect inflationary fears (and actual figures) to help whip the commodity boom back into action! Might see a further fall over the next couple days perhaps? As the banks try to rally in vain.

 

[cuttlefish]

Gee there's a lot of AAA rated debt about these days isn't there.

I just lent $20m to my neighbours dog, got it insured by Ambac and swapped the debt for US treasuries for 28 days lol - thank you Bernanke.

 

[MRC & Co]

As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!

Good one market volatility!

:whip:chainsaw:

 

[explod]

Good one market volatility!

:whip:chainsaw:

Yes but range bound also. The next move will be large and as the Wall Street spruiking dies away we can expect it to the upside. I am holding my positions.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yes but range bound also. The next move will be large and as the Wall Street spruiking dies away we can expect it to the upside. I am holding my positions.

I completely agree Explod.

Must say however, I am kind of glad I did get triggered on my base metal stocks. I think precious metals are a bit safer currently. Base metals will get hit if the US recession (and I think we can say safely they ARE in recession, housing foreclosures are going to keep on running for at least the rest of this year, before subsiding but still remaining high next year I beleive, due to time lags it takes for this to actually come into effect), does have a decent impact on China (which I think it will). Not so sure about this decoupling theory in such an integrated global market.

Inflation is the only thing I see as a given at the moment, while this does help most commodities, gold is not bound by economic growth limitations.

Just one opinion at least.

 

[Temjin]

Yes, most commodities have been shot down recently.

However, POG did not move much overnight if not mistaken? Yet as their equities are part of the minerals index XMJ, some were taken to the cleaners!

This is what I was referring too.

As for good prices, I agree, however many of my stops were triggered today so Im hoping this was not a HUGE whipsaw or I will be pizzed!!!!!

No way Im dipping my fingers back into the commodity pot until at least the run into close Friday, when I expect inflationary fears (and actual figures) to help whip the commodity boom back into action! Might see a further fall over the next couple days perhaps? As the banks try to rally in vain.

Personally, I am holding positions but looking to buy more when it corrects more. Everything does not look good technically right now, for the short term time frame anyway. The best case we will get is an extended consolidation which slowly put everything back to below overbrought zones or a deeper correction for a quick drop back below those zones. Either way, the long term fundamentals are intact.

That extra $200 billion boost from the US would mean even more inflation.

 

[barrett]

Return of the wedge.. in green with strong support going back nearly a month - and weak resistance.. so far. It looks like the newcomers have finally been tamed.. and some fairweather friends of gold among the institutions have jumped off a moving train.. and some central banks have done signficant selling.. but bullishly little ground was given up in the process.. Could we be looking at an upside breakout on or before the rate cut?

 

[explod]

I completely agree Explod.

Must say however, I am kind of glad I did get triggered on my base metal stocks. I think precious metals are a bit safer currently. Base metals will get hit if the US recession (and I think we can say safely they ARE in recession, housing foreclosures are going to keep on running for at least the rest of this year, before subsiding but still remaining high next year I beleive, due to time lags it takes for this to actually come into effect), does have a decent impact on China (which I think it will). Not so sure about this decoupling theory in such an integrated global market.

Inflation is the only thing I see as a given at the moment, while this does help most commodities, gold is not bound by economic growth limitations.

Just one opinion at least.

And a very good observation too.

However as has been repeated time and again it is the weakening currencies that are and will continue to be the driver. The $US index overnight has hit another all time low and this will continue. (for the analyst's, with of course some rallys along the way)

"Cash is trash" and gold will be supreme.

A good morning to you all.

Cheers explod

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not sure if this info should go here but may explain a few things to those not familiar to what's going on and reinforce the views of the 'converted'

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Return of the wedge.. in green with strong support going back nearly a month - and weak resistance.. so far. It looks like the newcomers have finally been tamed.. and some fairweather friends of gold among the institutions have jumped off a moving train.. and some central banks have done signficant selling.. but bullishly little ground was given up in the process.. Could we be looking at an upside breakout on or before the rate cut?

Yes, a typical consolidation mode set up I think. On the longer time-scale things setting up nicely within the channel; distinct entry points at the Bollinger lows. Waiting for another low.

And....good news for BDG sharesufferers, I mean shareholders

 

[MRC & Co]

Personally, I am holding positions but looking to buy more when it corrects more. Everything does not look good technically right now, for the short term time frame anyway. The best case we will get is an extended consolidation which slowly put everything back to below overbrought zones or a deeper correction for a quick drop back below those zones. Either way, the long term fundamentals are intact.

That extra $200 billion boost from the US would mean even more inflation.

I would be careful in waiting for a quick drop.

You cannot fault the fundamentals. Inflation figures released very soon, sure to be high. Add to that the US rate cut which is expected and almost a definate. Only question is now in my mind, will it breakout before or after the announcements. Tonight could be a good night.

 

[barrett]

Yes, a typical consolidation mode set up I think. On the longer time-scale things setting up nicely within the channel; distinct entry points at the Bollinger lows. Waiting for another low.

And....good news for BDG sharesufferers, I mean shareholders

Nice work.. maybe that low will come in just before the rate cut.. that would give, potentially, another day or two of chopping, maybe within this symmetrical wedge..

If the wedge strengthened a bit and then broke to the upside on high volume, I would have thought 1000 taken. But Fat Prophets seem to be sticking to their theory that after reaching 1000 there will be a substantial selloff/buying opportunity.. I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..

 

[explod]

Selloffs, dips, you name it everyone is trying to call it.

We are in new ground with gold, an all time high and the largest economy that has ever existed is on its knees; period.

My call is the trend, a trend is something that you can see happening, it may change at any moment and we need to be ready at all times to alter stance.

I believe that the trend up, in the absence of any other information will continue.

But we know that gold is intrinsiclly linked to currencies, wether the powers that be like it or not, and it is worth having a look at the US$ index, ............today the lowest point ever in history. .............

That down trend confirms the gold uptrend and as I said "in the abscence of any other information.

I say to myself, "keep it simple stupid" and you wont go far wrong.

 

[barrett]

I would be careful in waiting for a quick drop.

You cannot fault the fundamentals. Inflation figures released very soon, sure to be high. Add to that the US rate cut which is expected and almost a definate. Only question is now in my mind, will it breakout before or after the announcements. Tonight could be a good night.

The two hawks on the board have been getting stroppy and arguing for lower cuts... a high CPI before a fed meeting would strengthen their argument, potentially bringing a quick buying opportunity before the cut? Just playing the contrarian really but it does happen sometimes.

USDA monthly supply/demand report Tuesday morning showed US wheat & soybean domestic supply situation becoming even tighter, with those prices likely to remain high even if this year's harvests are exceptionally big. Add to that 1/3 of US corn going to be diverted into ethanol and things look very bullish for the ag commodities - throw in $110 oil, and it's the perfect storm for gold. If only the oil companies would stop trading at $50 oil valuations!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..

My thinking is that the recent high is the top for now, and possibly some continuation of the roughly 6-8 week major cycle, which would take us to sometime around middle of April for the next major advance of $100 plus proportions. I hope it's sooner; you never know what left of centre event could throw the analysis out the window? You learn to be patient with gold

Also a bit concerned that any correction with oil will have a negative impact.

 

[CamKawa]

But Fat Prophets seem to be sticking to their theory that after reaching 1000 there will be a substantial selloff/buying opportunity..

If that’s what Fat Prophets thinks then the opposite will probably happen.

I was kinda thinking the selloff already occurred, from the low 990's..

I think you may well be right.

 

[rederob]

Whatever anyone might think, based on charts or anything else, the "fundamentals" rule gold's near to medium term price.
In all probability gold will breach $1000 tonight (a blind Freddy call given it's a few dollars shy as I type).
Gold will power significantly further.
Propelling it will be a series of cascading Fed rate cuts, perhaps ending with the US copying Japan and running a zero interest rate market regime until the recession wears itself out.
The non-statistical recession the US is presently experiencing can easily last another year or more. And although I have no idea when it will end, I am reasonable sure that until it does, gold will retain its momentum.
I had been reluctant to think gold would hit $1000 so soon. However, what is evident now is that monies from elsewhere are being parked in gold for the time being - the safe haven it has always been.
A clue to gold's trajectory is its relatively sedate - yet powerful - climb north. While there are occasional intraday movements of a few percent or so, these seem to ebb and flow in such a way that gold never leaps so far ahead that it doubles down on itself afterwards. I know this to be the case because since January's market collapse, I haven't found a good re-entry point.
So, when I map out gold' forward path, I see Fed rate cuts adding at least another $200 to its price, and a speculative splurge nearer to the ending of US economic blues adding at least $200 more again. Accordingly, I find it difficult to envisage gold retracing markedly until it breaches around $1500.
But that's what I'm seeing today.
I fully expect market gloom to persist another 3 months: In fact I expect it will sour a lot more. Therefore I regard my present stance as a very early work in progress. I won't hesitate tipping POG at $2000 before a blowoff top if, mid year, the ingredients are stronger then than they are today.

 

[cuttlefish]

yeah get yer glad rags on 'cos the party might be startin'. (or not lol).


when every wealthy american realises that their 'cash is trash' (thanks explod), and every other government, institution, sovereign fund etc. that is holding US bonds and US currency realises that the $US is trashed backed by NINJA loans and other junk, then the upward pressure on the gold price might be rather surprising.

Apart from raw commodities (oil, ag products etc.) what other alternatives are there as a store of value in the face of a genuine and deep USD collapse.