Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Wysiwyg]

The rebound off 936 to 949 was not what i thought would happen.I thought a 943 rebound and settle or down again but the drive up was overwhelming.These moments of volatility are worth their (should i say this) weight in gold.

 

[explod]

read back through a few threads and... aaahh what the hlle there are more valid??? reasons for not placing stops than Carters got liver pills.... ......apparently..
Stopaholic
,,,,,,,,,,,,,Kauri

Nuther interesting week ahead. Good to look back at the weekly.

Notice the spike from March 06 to May 06, and take in where it began in July of 05. Noooow

Look at a similar situation starting around July 07, then to our current position which looks uncannily like March 06. If we were to repeat this we should reach a goal of US$1,250 by July. However the increasing pressures/volatility would suggest that this would most likely be about 1,500.

It has always been realised that stage one of the gold bull would be when all the investment community is taking notice. Stage 2 is when they are then invested in it. A price of 1300 to 1500 by June would sound the start of stage 2.

In my (very) humble opinion,

as always.

 

[barrett]

Ya theekretive theekrats *whack* I think you guys have the call though..
The channel on the hourly has plenty of friends.. looking up at the intersection of its resistance with a longer term resistance on the daily gives a 972 target.. by wednesday! ....that wasn't that the new bentley ute, was it?
bar-rat

 

[barrett]

Probably the most useful article on gold I've read in the past year...
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/0219.html
a bit of ratio analysis goes a long way..

One point involves the dow-gold ratio... he uses a logarithmic y axis but the point is made clearer still with a linear y..

 

[ithatheekret]

Ya theekretive theekrats *whack* I think you guys have the call though..
The channel on the hourly has plenty of friends.. looking up at the intersection of its resistance with a longer term resistance on the daily gives a 972 target.. by wednesday! ....that wasn't that the new bentley ute, was it?
bar-rat

A Bentley ute , wow . Cwaaaar , imagine how much the divorce lawyers would cost .

972 I have at a range from 960 yet to be seen .

Watched the start to see if 941/2 was retested , got to 945.05 , thought we'd at least see 943.70 touched . The last peaks look like they are being driven at , should be interesting to see the resistance , there'd be some covering in the last two peaks , probably a few sledgehammers at the tops too , find out if they're still there in a few secs.

 

[explod]

A Bentley ute , wow . Cwaaaar , imagine how much the divorce lawyers would cost .

972 I have at a range from 960 yet to be seen .

Watched the start to see if 941/2 was retested , got to 945.05 , thought we'd at least see 943.70 touched . The last peaks look like they are being driven at , should be interesting to see the resistance , there'd be some covering in the last two peaks , probably a few sledgehammers at the tops too , find out if they're still there in a few secs.

950 looks like the problem area. On my past obs, probably Tuesdy night our time but a break before then would be bullish indeed.

I think we are at major cross roads here and PPP will want to hold off so we should not be surprised at some good spin from W/S this evening IMHO

 

[barrett]

breakdown out of little 2hr bearish wedge etc.. 944 might be my last shot at the bentley..

 

[barrett]

getting up nice and close to support now at 946-7.. surely the enemy have spilled enough blood by now. Anything interesting come by on a cloud?

 

[CamKawa]

getting up nice and close to support now at 946-7.. surely the enemy have spilled enough blood by now. Anything interesting come by on a cloud?

Oil’s travelling along at 99.60 up 0.79. This might be due to the Turks moving into Northern Iraq which in turn can’t be hurting the POG.

I’m looking forward to see what happens tonight.

 

[CamKawa]

Thought I’d post a few upcoming important dates and comment on how they would affect the POG.

March 4 – RBA to announce a possible rate rise of 25 points. If this eventuates then this may cause the AUD to lift and offset any rise in the POG in USD’s. L I’ve done a rough calculation that for every 1 cent the AUD rises the POG has to rise 12 dollars to remain level. I’d welcome another forum member to check that though.

March 5 – OPEC meeting. Rumour has it they will either leave production levels steady or reduce supply. For the sake of the POG I hope they cut. Further reading here http://business.theage.com.au/crude-oil-up-after-turkish-attacks/20080225-1ukp.html

March 18 – US Fed to cut rates by 50 points which in theory can cause inflation further down the track which is good for the POG. Further rate cuts down the track aren't so clear now which is a concern for the POG.

 

[barrett]

thar she blows..
topped up before dinner at 947.. not the lowest price but at least 950 is out, might grab another 2 around 949 if this gap's filled,
bring on the opec cut :evilburn:

 

[MRC & Co]

Thought I’d post a few upcoming important dates and comment on how they would affect the POG.

March 4 – RBA to announce a possible rate rise of 25 points. If this eventuates then this may cause the AUD to lift and offset any rise in the POG in USD’s. L I’ve done a rough calculation that for every 1 cent the AUD rises the POG has to rise 12 dollars to remain level. I’d welcome another forum member to check that though.

March 5 – OPEC meeting. Rumour has it they will either leave production levels steady or reduce supply. For the sake of the POG I hope they cut. Further reading here http://business.theage.com.au/crude-oil-up-after-turkish-attacks/20080225-1ukp.html

March 18 – US Fed to cut rates by 50 points which in theory can cause inflation further down the track which is good for the POG. Further rate cuts down the track aren't so clear now which is a concern for the POG.

I have processed the same things. However, with the last paragraph, a further rate cut in the US would rise the AUD agianst the USD........potentially offsetting any inflationary rise in the US.

 

[Kauri]

Have taken a golden?? opportunity to top up... hope it doesn't backfire on me..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[barrett]

Hey let's set up a hedge fund that fades my calls, the whole thread could retire..
stop had me out at 947 are you guys holding?
that was the biggest volume 5min period in some time I think
bounced to 938 just now, forming a bottom but not yet by the look of volume
PS just saw your post Kauri, I doubt you can go wrong buying that level, cheers...

 

[barrett]

apparently the US has OK'd the IMF's gold sale and the plunge came on the news.. except that the gold sale won't be negative for gold at all.. China and some other 2nd tier central banks will be raring at the bit to buy up that gold I reckon.

but 4 or 5 days worth of straight and squiggly lines went down the gurgler tonight... ppl will find their feet again. Interestingly the XAU and HUI barely flinched so far tonight, no serious technical damage done..
:goodnight:

pinched this from somewhere else

Happens all the TIME lol

 

[CamKawa]

I have processed the same things. However, with the last paragraph, a further rate cut in the US would rise the AUD agianst the USD........potentially offsetting any inflationary rise in the US.

Yes I agree, it goes around and around. However the POG in AUD's ended up in front after the 125 point cut earlier in the year.

ANY drop in the POG in USD's is going to punish gold locally as the AUD keeps going up and up. http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?audusd=x
I'm hoping that in the medium term house prices are starting to fall locally as per an article in The Age titled House Flu http://business.theage.com.au/house-flu/20080223-1u70.html and that in turn discourages the RBA from further rate rises thereby taking some pressure off the AUD. House prices are falling in NZ and the Kiwi dollar is falling along with it.

I've got say I'm quite surprised and disappointed to see the POG at 938.30. I was hoping to wake and see it somewhere in the 950's. I can see where the US is coming from supporting the sale of IMF gold sale because further increases in the POG may further weaken the USD. I've been waiting for some central bank intervention albeit indirect here as the POG has been quietly going up recently with not so much as a peep out of them.

 

[ithatheekret]

Well my mobile went off on alert AM , not just on POG either , was supposed to be having an early night , so much for that ............
Had an order in way above the 930's that ....thank heavens ..... I removed it .


Got in on the run late and had to wait , caught the second dip in the 935's .

I'm not unhappy at all with the drop , rather glad it came around actually , I don't like one way traffic . Had Skip orders in that were reached , would have thought they'd of been stopped out on the POG drop , I don't think the forex markets are buying the spin on the IMF permission slip .

 

[ithatheekret]

Boy is this metal volatile , bloomin' marvy , but I think the shake out has started , been wondering when they'd get around to it , have they had enough is the key one would think . The only currency that I've seen knocked about on POG drop is the Looney , half a cent under parity again , I think Skips just ahead now .

POG is starting to look defended in those 935 areas , acting like a currency again . I think those Indian buyers might be tuned in on these dips . A lot of money just stop it rolling through when it had gathered downhill speed , that's twice in 24 hours it's done that , good trading ranges the dip has it back in the 35's trying to move lower , looks to be absorbed at present , keeping it tightly within a $5 range .

I think Kauris last in is the target zone , they might get it back there too , if it can get past the sponge .

 

[ithatheekret]

I just rolled the dice @ 934.00 missed the 933.95 by a milli second

Think I'd better keep the stop tight , huh seems to be hovering about a little ...... only a little mind you . A morning doji would be nice about now ...............

 

[ithatheekret]

Ha , that lasted all but 20 seconds . Set my stop at 933.50 and then there it was .