Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

What a messed up day on the gold markets, two false breakouts, and maybe god only understands what the gold price has done in the past three hours. Opinions anyone - is the weird market action over the past three hours bullish or bearish for the coming day? Personally I see it as being bearish since today's long pennant was broken to the downside, but I may be wrong.

Wavepicker I am seeing the same wave count as you. Once this fourth wave is over I am going milk the fifth for all it's worth.

I have no problems with the gold price because I take a long term view. Gold is in a strong confirmed bull run because it is the most effective defence agains the loss of currency value. The answers and the story behind the ascendency of gold has been explained and repeated very well during the entire course of this thread. It is well worth reading over.

The chart speaks for itself

 

[barrett]

I have no problems with the gold price because I take a long term view. Gold is in a strong confirmed bull run because it is the most effective defence agains the loss of currency value. The answers and the story behind the ascendency of gold has been explained and repeated very well during the entire course of this thread. It is well worth reading over.

The chart speaks for itself

I have pestered everyone I know to buy gold, especially friends and relatives in the US, since August of 2004. If they read this forum they would see how the long term gold bull market you described is never in question.

But when you are trading futures or cfds because of the leverage it can be important to find a good entry point, to avoid big losses. That's a big reason why you may be confused at how some seem hung up on the short term market action.

I have to give you credit for being bullish on gold August-Oct when I was -short-term- bearish. I got it wrong. I did keep 60% of my portfolio in gold and silver stocks and for the most part it paid off.

 

[Miner]

Dear Goldies
Please advise if it is time to buy bullions or just gold shares. WIth gold shares there will be many good and dud where as bullion could only go north or south. I will listen the experts.
Regards

Miner

 

[So_Cynical]

Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.

Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD

How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?

 

[ithatheekret]

I am going to stick my neck out and it almost always gets chopped off.....and say that gold in the next few weeks will hit around the US$1000 mark.

Based on my reading of learned pundits/anaylysts, fundamentals and technical indications.

Any other bids. I went 100% long gold stocks today. RSG the most responsive in the past was my main purchase.

On the USD front alone I have $880 ( expecting higher ) , but not until the end of year sell off and the new year sell off are complete . Haven't you ever noticed the small cap goldies get hit in the Chrissie lead up and squatted in Jan/Feb .
Please don't take this as investment advice , I'm just stating an observation I had noted each time the greater market looks weak and the cyclical events noted .

Perhaps this time round it will be different , given the subprime "crisis" , panic and hysteria , banks are going to lose money ....... ohoooh fees are going up

But the pessimistic ( sarcastic even ) side of me doubts anything will change except for the share prices in banks

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.

Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD

How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?

With reference to the chart question - it look's to me like a parabolic.

But we have not as yet reached any sort of manic stage, rather a general nonchalance among the general investing population. It's all a bit ho hum while ever the 'establishment' markets are generally not tanking. Getting used to 200 point daily ranges in the Dow, 100 pts on the XJO and $20 daily range in gold.

It will probably take a sustained pog above a record high before the 2nd phase starts in earnest. Buying the dips.

 

[Whiskers]

The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.

If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.

As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer!

Any critique?

 

[Whiskers]

The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.

If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.

As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer!

Any critique?

I should have translated those lines to the Aug period.

Did here, not the exact same lines but same principle.

Coincidence... or is there some charting logic?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The basic premise of my earlier musing about the future of the gold price has been an unfilled parallel of the Aug retreat. Maybe there is now some evidence and weight to that premis afterall.

If my thinking is correct we will revisit the mid 700's fairly soon.

As I mentioned initially it was largely based on my mental evaluation of fundamental and psychological factors in a somewhat meditation state. What stuck out in my minds eye was 'parallel', but I could not precisely put a figure or time on it. Could we be getting closer!

Any critique?

I'm a bit interested in this meditation thing too - a few years ago when the pog was around $300 I visualised a counter for the gold price counting up at a rapid rate. Not sure if it means much but sometimes I think there is a case for psychic investing or 'gut feel'???

As for the chart, another view is that it has minor & major triangles with support at $780?, similar to the big consolidation phase before the breakout. So maybe some consolidation, but still at these elevated levels, until/or if $780 breached convincingly, but still support levels lower which would still keep the secular bull intact?

Maybe Wavepicker/Kauri can project some times, looking to be next year at least for another major break - up or down?

 

[Kauri]

I don't currently hold a position in gold but as always am watching for an opportunity... my longer term picture (as of today...could change tomorrow ) is on the charts.. to be tempered by the fact that I have only seriously been using E/W for around a year now ...
also on the fundemental side to be considered I guess is that the UK/Euro zones seem to be approaching a crisis of sorts whilst miracuously the US reckons it is now doing OK!!! Mind you the ADP figures that initially fired up the euphoria and put risk back on the table are notoriously misleading as a guide to NFP figures I think, so Friday is the day for me for possible gold direction, in fact most markets direction... I think.... or was that thought..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[explod]

Its an amazing chart, the curve just gets steeper...the only place left to go is straight up...assuming the 7 year trend continues.

Miner..theres many value gold stocks....and as i pointed out in another thread, some gold stocks have outperformed Vs ASX:GOLD

How could any so called trend follower not be all over this?

Many pundits consider a correction is on the cards and this may pan out.

On the bull run to date the down trend line is at US$680 so the current level is well clear of that.

The other aspect to be cautious of is that the Christmas period over the last 31 years has been notoriously volatile for the gold price. From about the 5th December to the 5th of Janauary over the last 31 years we have seen 13 x 12 month highs and 18 x 12 month lows. So there is more than a 50% chance of a 12 month low and roughly a 36% chance of a 12 month high. A 12 month low would be a US$50 break below the bull run trend line.

Will be interesting to see what pans out.

Next year perhaps I will work out a GANN graph of the last 32 years for all the corrency fluctuations etc for a better fundamental take on it all.

Yer gotta be jocken-un-les-yer-payin

 

[DreamSciTech]

Can I post a chart based on my analysis because I am particularly interested in the pattern analysis?

DreamSciTech

 

[So_Cynical]

Can I post a chart based on my analysis because I am particularly interested in the pattern analysis?

DreamSciTech

Knock your self out dude....

Yes post away.

 

[DreamSciTech]

Thanks!

I consider that pattern should repeat itself, thus I invented this mid- and long-term trend for stock analysis.

The upper panel is the gold price until December 5 2007, which is difficult to see the repetition. However, in the low panel of this Chart, we can see that the blue line has the repeated patterns.

Now the blue line is approaching to the average mid- and long-term trend line (pink line). When the blue line goes down, the price of gold goes down too. On the other hand, the history does not show that the blue line had stopped around the pink line, which means that the gold price will go down. However, the important point is that the thickness of blue line already spans several trading days.

Using this approach, I am particularly happy that I predicted the rebounding of stock market in another site on November 25, based on the closing price of Dow Jones on November 23. Since then Dow Jones has up 450 points.

dreamscitech.com

 

[DreamSciTech]

 

[So_Cynical]

LOL @ the Bird flu pandemic...seriously i was right into the possibility's of
that, did a couple of days research and almost brought CSL
(just before the august correction)...Punting on a vaccine bubble how terrible is that.

It never occurred to me that Gold would do OK out of the pandemic madness as well.

 

[barrett]

Good on you for posting it but not sure about this bit,

When the blue line goes down, the price of gold goes down too.

eg. in Jan 04, again in Nov 04, gold heading up strongly, blue line plummeting.

 

[explod]

Now that is getting volatile. Not saying it will go higher this morning but these fast upticks show someone is keen to fill up on the dips. And the oil price at the same time has dropped further also. Dollar only slightly down. Dow Up. ??????

We had world peak oil in 2005 but someone said a few days ago that oil production will be increased. Some believe it. Oil cartels are acumulating gold. SOME DO NOT BELIEVE IT.

 

[barrett]

Yeah this is wild. I guess we could expect a $20 rise in 3 hours after US mortgage delinquencies rose to a 20 yr high.. and it's not just hitting the subprime but also the prime.. this'll make it difficult for the Fed not to cut rates on Tues, maybe by 0.5. It's the perfect storm for gold when Feds around the world are forced to cut rates at a time when food and energy prices have just gone sky high and inflation is hotting up, here's hoping POG tanks to $740 for no particular reason so I can buy 10 contracts! :santa:

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Spot Gold testing 800 owch!

Nick......

Great call and great analysis.

The USD/CHF was great fun for the last 48 hours......... see what happens from here.