Gold Price - Where is it heading?

refined silver said:

Trade it.

Why didn't you go long at $792 instead of just closing a short? Au is now up $14 from the low in about 5 hours.

If you keep trying to short a bull you'll get your head handed to you. Why not buy the dips and sell on strength, instead of trying to pick tops and sell before it reverses? In a bull market the surprises and biggest moves are always to the upside. Much more chance of profits, and larger ones.

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It depends entirely on your goals and trading style RS.

Some here a are short term swing traders who trade the market both ways, move by move, others are happy to hold.

There is no right or wrong way, just different styles. If Trade It is good enough to do it consistantly, then I say good luck to him.

Cheers

I'm still trying to get a handle on some numbers for my musing about the direction of gold.

I reckon the hourly (our time not NY ) gives a target around $784 from a bearish pennant.

If it closes the week under $789 we will have an engulfing bearish weekly candle and that says a down week next week.

Any critique?

wavepicker said:

It depends entirely on your goals and trading style RS.

Some here a are short term swing traders who trade the market both ways, move by move, others are happy to hold.

There is no right or wrong way, just different styles. If Trade It is good enough to do it consistantly, then I say good luck to him.

Cheers

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Thanks WP,

very true no mater what time frame or style you trade as long as you have a green sheet at the end of the week is all that matters.

was a short term trade that payed off.

Gold, still looks rather negative on the short term, see what happens around that previous low if it makes it there.

Any analysis of the Au price without $US index analysis is useless. Last two days Au has been an exact mirror image of $US down to the minute, (only times 10 in amplitude). To suggest Au is going down, you must also hold that the $US dollar is heading up.

With further Fed rate cuts likely, many Countries seeking to get out of US denominated reserves, TIC reports in US going negative the last two months(capital inflow not sufficient to fund Current Account deficit), not to mention what the credit crunch and bank write downs are going to do to tax revenues - further blowing out the budget deficit, putting more downward pressure on the US dollar, it looks like spitting into a hurricane betting that the $USD will rise.

While technically oversold, the US dollar chart looks like Enron, with similar fundamentals.

Just on charts alone I am still short... missed opportunity to pyramid on the W4 ( at the eye doctors and not here to see it).. if this current leg gets past the recent W1 low around 791 theni22 w*^^
C s
. a i

Kauri said:

theni22 w*^^

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Could you translate for me please Kauri? (That's if it's not too naughty!)

What sort of problem do you have with your eyes, Kauri?

I had in impact injury in one and eventually had it removed. Got a prosthesis in it now.

That fools people. They think I'm normal.

Whiskers said:

Could you translate for me please Kauri? (That's if it's not too naughty!)

What sort of problem do you have with your eyes, Kauri?

I had in impact injury in one and eventually had it removed. Got a prosthesis in it now.

That fools people. They think I'm normal.

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Hi whiskers
Eyes are apparently OK, they have been worried about Glaucoma but it seems I naturally have shallow, wide cupped optic nerves... apparently.
Sorry, can't remember what I was saying there.. the batteries on the wireless keyboard decided to giveup... I think that I want POG to drop down below 791 odd so I can bring my stop down to the/my?? latest W2 from the current W4 to lock in some of the profit..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Kauri said:

Just on charts alone I am still short... missed opportunity to pyramid on the W4 ( at the eye doctors and not here to see it).. if this current leg gets past the recent W1 low around 791 theni22 w*^^
C s
. a i

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yes we have gold where to gold bugs why should it drop gold has done nothing wrong. The financial markets are wrong but we suffer.
What I see and what I subscribe to to see may differ....I am in cash as off two days ago but I do have buys on stocks yet to be filled.
I believe the stocks will drop and the general gold stocks will rise and be the one.
However being a silver investor first... silver stocks have done nothing...a bottom close in silver???????????????

I wonder how the metal will react to this rate cut miracle . I'm amazed they are going to cut , should of done it in last Jan. but that means nothing to them .

I listened to a replay of the address by Bernanke and it makes me wonder what really is the catalyst forcing their hand .

I've listened to the previous addresses too , and can't see what has changed his view .
I think the catalyst is an intention , an intention to placate and relax the stockmarket and take the jitters away , unfortunately , that won't become a reality until the only growth in double digits isn't a countries M3 position or China .
All I've seen is a mass entry into China by many companies and banks , but on the flipside to that China is actually in a self inflicted recessionary position . By that , I refer to the immediate effect the latest ruling on asset recording has had . ( noting every analysts bagging of NAB and the US bank purchase , one chap saying they should be concentrating on China ) .

There's plenty of time for China the collective recently assured that with the asset recording ruling .

The US Fed maintained a position and set to course on an agenda , that has inflated every tyre on the block , then they've tried to stop the rolling chassis dilema . They've jumped up and down at Chinas toes about a peg "THEY" ( the Fed ) set in the first place .

Bit like the position on the Yen option , eventually it will collapse under the weight of the market or be powered on by credit , only to find it has another fight on its hands later .

Except that Yen play looks like a state bank by the wedges carved out ... a German one would fit the M.O. ( my Ockhams razor again )
I cackled when I heard the German Finance Minister go on about snooty bankers , when German State banks were more heavily immersed in the subprime dilema , than most European banks ................

In the light of day you would expect at least a sincere respect of market forces by these professionals , yet barely does a day go by without one of their stuff ups hitting the headlines . It's like they've been saving up the bad news for a rainy day and someones told them there's a storm . Well wait till this months PCE rattles them ...........

I made a little Boo Boo in the previous chart. I was focusing on an end of week number and took the open close prices instead of the range. I also missed a little leg up in the pole. All in all it didn't change the target much. Revised no $787.5.

Looks like a new bearish pennant forming. Could see a target around $780.

Also engulfing bearish candle. Looks like next hour or so will be down too.

bean said:

yes we have gold where to gold bugs why should it drop gold has done nothing wrong. The financial markets are wrong but we suffer.

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Mr Bean,
Just love your humour..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Woops there she goes $787

EDIT: Actually it got to $786.47 by me.

We are most definitely in a down trend...all the momentum is downward.
perhaps some bargains to be had on Monday.

The double steep peak on the chart is sorta unprecedented..uncharacteristic.

No guarantees but if my E/W holds up she should be looking at the low 770's... initially anyway...
Cheers
.........Kauri

So_Cynical said:

We are most definitely in a down trend...all the momentum is downward.
perhaps some bargains to be had on Monday.

The double steep peak on the chart is sorta unprecedented..uncharacteristic.

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Looks like a nice double top in the making. Breaking 780 and I have a target of 740 ish which happens to coincide with support after 760 ish....Is probably a fib retractment point as well.

kennas said:

Looks like a nice double top in the making. Breaking 780 and I have a target of 740 ish which happens to coincide with support after 760 ish....Is probably a fib retractment point as well.

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One of the great things I like about the point and figure chart is that it gives a good idea of past behaviour. I would not rule out further correction now but there is good support at this level and on the past behaviour the uptrend is still intact.

[chart courtesy the Privateer Newsletter]

explod said:

One of the great things I like about the point and figure chart is that it gives a good idea of past behaviour. I would not rule out further correction now but there is good support at this level and on the past behaviour the uptrend is still intact.

[chart courtesy the Privateer Newsletter]

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Yes there is and I hope it holds in some sence. Still, POG can correct much further to remain in a healthy uptrend. Your P&F chart is showing the support levels quite clearly.

explod,

betting on large corrections at this juncture could be an error.

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and

I would not rule out further correction now

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Both within a day. You coming or going?

explod said:

but there is good support at this level

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Hello explod,

can you please elaborate, why is there good support at this level, is it of any significance?

Cheers

Nick Radge said:

explod,



and



Both within a day. You coming or going?

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I was a bit savage Nick, "large" the operative word, later fell through a support which altered my stance. I am often wrong but wish I was not so dogmatic about it.