Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

Yes I believe Bean has it about right. Gold did during a trading day spike above US$900 However it is the closing price that is recorded as the value.

And I thought you were a gold bug!

 

[bean]

POG did spike during the day in which it made its high.

Tonight when I did my post I thought POG may make it way to US $ 825 tonight. Still on but it doesn't want to drop to much more.
But the thing is if POG gets past the US $ 850 well its next bit to worry may be the US $ 900 or its intraday high.

I was listening to financial sense broadcast last weekend when the precious metal person mentioned this friday to watch the
Net Foreign Purchases for Sept, which is released at 9am friday morning in the US. If its a big negative number he reckons a big day down in markets, gold stocks included. As foreign investors will flee US markets as they won't want to be the last one in.
If it does happen money will flow to bonds and US$ initially and POG may benifit in a small way until they realise and flee the US$.

However there is certain Gold sites in the US that are currently telling there subscribers to exit from financial institutions, remove money from banks and invest in foreign currencies, Gold etc
One of the reason why
http://http://www.safehaven.com/article-8797.htm

With all this going on wild swings will be happening in gold. Up and down.

DOW Theory...the Industrials are only a few hundred points from confirming the US Markets in a bear.

 

[bean]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8797.htm

The link to many http//www in first post

 

[CanOz]

I'm not sure GOLD has finished its retracement...although i would like to think so, because i want to be a buyer, not a seller. Anyway, heres a chart of the mini that i'm looking at. I can't see it not testing 780.

I must say however, on the 30 minute chart that it looks like volume bubble stopping that last move down....

Cheers,

 

[Kauri]

Just an idle thought on gold...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[rederob]

POG did spike during the day in which it made its high.

Comex pegged the top at $895.

Kauri
Possibly idle.
But maybe not: The charts I reviewed have no scope for any real consolidation at this point. It's either a good tilt at $900, or a dip into low $700s for more and longer consolidation.

 

[Kauri]

Kauri
Possibly idle.
But maybe not: The charts I reviewed have no scope for any real consolidation at this point. It's either a good tilt at $900, or a dip into low $700s for more and longer consolidation.

Rederob...
can't help but agree with you.... if it doesn't go up it's going to go down.....
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[rederob]

Rederob...
can't help but agree with you.... if it doesn't go up it's going to go down.....
Cheers
...........Kauri

Ok.
But what I meant was that I did not see any protracted consolidation in a narrow range.
This is a time of great volatility and gold will be a good part of it in my reckoning.
So when it goes up or down, which it obviously will, my suspicion is that it will be of significant magnitude in the near term.

 

[chops_a_must]

Ok.
But what I meant was that I did not see any protracted consolidation in a narrow range.
This is a time of great volatility and gold will be a good part of it in my reckoning.
So when it goes up or down, which it obviously will, my suspicion is that it will be of significant magnitude in the near term.

Looks to be another fantastic call at this stage Red. Geez... I'm glad I didn't get rid of my gold trades.

 

[Kauri]

Just some more idle time spent perusing the gold chart... without "cutting and pasting" I hear around the traps that a bit of sub-prime worry is resurfacing, having a possible negative effect on gold.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[bean]

well it would appear POG has failed on the US$825.
One correction is the XAU/POG = .19 (buy .19 or less)
currently XAU 178.47 POG US$ 805 = .22

 

[rederob]

Just some more idle time spent perusing the gold chart... without "cutting and pasting" I hear around the traps that a bit of sub-prime worry is resurfacing, having a possible negative effect on gold.
Cheers
.........Kauri

Kauri
I think your channels are too narrow!
The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
Get used to daily swings in a 3% or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.

 

[Kauri]

Kauri
I think your channels are too narrow!
The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
Get used to daily swings in a 3% or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.

Rederob,
Channels, flags, whatever.... I'm happy..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[bean]

Kauri
I think your channels are too narrow!
The curious aspect of tonight's 2% decline is that oil has gone the complete opposite direction.
Which suggests to me that the technical traders are strutting their stuff at the moment.
Get used to daily swings in a 3% or greater range until the bullish forces are spent - and I don't think we are there just yet.

I had a bullish scenario now a bearish (short/longterm) may be taking place (I subscribe to a site now, so today I had a number it did not make it which may show buyers are drying up). But based on other things I am also getting a correction....How much not sure at this moment. (but could be short and severe)
one thing us gold bulls have over the other paricipants in this site or other sites is that we know POG is reflecting in the markets in some way. We know financial markets are in a worse state than what the average investor thinks. That this link if you like is or should be the controlling link of the markets (believe it or not).
My bearish scenario is not good for general Markets.....

 

[Whiskers]

Kauri mentioned POG could go back to the low $700's, Kennas support around $790 and $760 and Canaussieuck testing support at $780.

I'm having a go at extending my charting expertise (mainly lack of) to try to figure where gold is going. A basic tenent of my current theory is that the credit crisis has had a false run. We have just started the correction all over again... a repeat... since the market was told that everything was under control and seemed to pretty much accept that, now with that accounting rule kicking in forcing more losses and write downs and concern for the fed, I'm more inclined to think, more from a psychological perspective, that people will react pretty much the same again.

Somebody mentioned earlier about a parallel correction in terms of one of the stock indicies. Then it would be reasonable to assume that gold could do the same thing. Doing some quick maths if the correction is a parallel to Aug, it would take us back to about $705 (if my maths and conversion is correct).

I'm a complete novice at wave analysis, and am intergied by those wave theory fellows, but was the August correction a 5 wave? Then we are just starting the 3rd wave of 5 down again to abt 156 or $705. Do people see that eventuating? It seems to be testing $790 again tonight.

Excuse my rough chart, but I think you should see what I am getting at.

 

[p-po]

I have done a lot of research on this and I absolutely, confidently believe Gold will break 1000 / oz. At this point, 800 is the resistance. Let's see how the market reacts but I have put a lot of money on gold stocks already.

I go through this blog at least once a week to see what other technical analysis I am missing and what professional traders have to say...

http://hot-metals.blogspot.com/

 

[Sean K]

I have done a lot of research on this and I absolutely, confidently believe Gold will break 1000 / oz. At this point, 800 is the resistance. Let's see how the market reacts but I have put a lot of money on gold stocks already.

I go through this blog at least once a week to see what other technical analysis I am missing and what professional traders have to say...

http://hot-metals.blogspot.com/

You're not Andrew Sheldon by any chance are you?

 

[GreatPig]

A chart of the GOLD stock in A$. The new trendline I have marked is almost exactly parallel to the other one coming out of the saucer bottom.

GP

 

[Sean K]

A chart of the GOLD stock in A$. The new trendline I have marked is almost exactly parallel to the other one coming out of the saucer bottom.

GP

Looks like it still could be a 4 or 5 of an uptrend. Perhaps POG back to 760 ish will bring this back towards the trend line and it's a 4.

 

[Kauri]

I have gold, after tumbling out of the channel/flag/tramtracks, now at a typical W5 point... not to say it won't go further in this count, but I am proceeding with caution at this point in case she retraces into a larger degree 2.... or something...
Cheers
..........Kauri