Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Kauri · 10 November 2007

Don't go down to the woods tonight....
Cheers
........Kauri

November 9. A relatively-modest $12 range has been set so far in gold, with a
$831 Dec close needed to retain a bullish view on our daily model. Trend
Intensity, a separate calculation, is set to uptick bullishly to 50 today based
on the huge momentum that has carried prices nearly $200 higher (range) since
mid-August. Readings of 50 or higher are extremely rare and are often
associated with exhaustion-type moves. The spoiler here is the greenback, whose
downward slope has assumed new dimensions and is still in search of a price low
enough to attract buyers. Capitulation there should lead to a stronger
correction in gold. Daily resistance is at $842 Dec, then either side of $848.
Supports are $831, then $826.50.

Uncle Festivus · 10 November 2007

Kauri said:
Don't go down to the woods tonight....
Cheers
........Kauri

Hey Kauri, so we've gone from 'songs to trade by' (Turning Japanese?) to 'nursery rhymes to trade by'

explod said:
The other interesting aspect is that Wall Street is now down 2 nights in a row and still gold holds firm. Yep, gold has decoupled and is showing very bullish signs.

Yes, the decoupling continues, until there is only the one store of value left I'm afraid. The equity market correlation has now well & truly bean broken? $830 seems to be the basing area for relaunch?

"On Friday, before a three-day weekend, the funds will be forced to rebalance their risk levels," said Schmidt in emailed comments. "With equity already being sold, they will turn to selling gold and silver."

There could be a $20 to $40 drop in gold prices on Friday "as funds attempt to lighten their risk, read as gold," he said. "Buyers should sit on their money and watch."

Some wake up calls for the paradigm economy cronies who still don't get it!

ithatheekret · 10 November 2007

You have to be patient , afterall the world is run by Keynesians .

The men in white will eventually round them all up , well the ones that still have valid expiry dates anyway ............

Whiskers · 12 November 2007

Well, it looks like the PPT might have had a little up their sleave. Testing your $826.50 support, Kauri.

Kauri · 12 November 2007

Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
Cheers
.........Kauri

Sean K · 12 November 2007

Kauri said:
Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
Cheers
.........Kauri

2 obvious support lines on those retractments. About time we had a correction, if it is...

bean · 12 November 2007

For historical purposes POG biggest drop US$ 42.50 on 28th Feb 1983

That however was a 10% drop.

Thing to watch is the US$ any traction and well.

May be a bad week in general for everything.

explod · 12 November 2007

Kauri said:
Well I wouldn't have thought it probable but.... is it possible that she will head for the mid 700's????
Cheers
.........Kauri

At the start of most weeks the gold price is pushed down by the Plunge Protection Team before the heavier trading begins in the hope that they can create a correction. Many countries are now alarmed at the weakening US dollar and golds strength is confirmation that the fiat currency system is not back by assets. In fact the US dollar is propped up by debt.

The big players are waking up to these facts so I wouldn't count on too much of a correction. Of course Dow could spill over and that would cause a gold retracement to some degree perhaps.

We will see what pans out.

Kauri · 12 November 2007

Refraining from the ubiquitious "cut and paste.. ") it seems that a few margins have been called due to the $10 odd drop today, adding a bit of fuel to the fire.... and talking of fuel. no..better not..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Kauri · 13 November 2007

I hear "around the traps" that quite a bit of hedge-fund selling of carry trades, gold, and oil are going on.... the gold chart certainly looks like it anyways...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Sean K · 13 November 2007

Kauri said:
I hear "around the traps" that quite a bit of hedge-fund selling of carry trades, gold, and oil are going on.... the gold chart certainly looks like it anyways...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. Unless you're short of course.

explod · 13 November 2007

kennas said:
Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. Unless you're short of course.

Yes it was starting to go too fast, which makes us a bit complacent to the bigger picture. In any case the retracement so far is only to where we were a week ago, a level where it hung for awhile which should provide support.

It was fairly evident from some reports over the weekend, that a defence of the dollar would be attempted, and it has risen a bit overnight, but a sell off of gold when traders are still rubbing their eyes at the start of the week has become part of the script for that.

We should be more concerned if the drop continues into the next day so. What happens after US time 1500hrs (3 pm)to 1600hrs will be a fair indicator of that.

Sean K · 13 November 2007

I'm seeing most support at $790 and $760 ish ish.

Kauri, what's the chance this is the completion of a larger W1 started 20 Aug?

Can I ramp gold anymore than that? LOL.

Kauri · 13 November 2007

kennas said:
Healthy correction. Would have preferred it to happen a couple of weeks ago to smooth out the rise. Now we have to suffer in the short term. Unless you're short of course.

The last time I was this short was when I played Grumpy in the school play...
As she has been stepping out on the 4Hourly she has generally found support on the last tread... in this case around the $800 level...
On the dailys my count has us in a possible W2... possibly..
Meantime.. back to the scratcher.. :sleeping:
Cheers
.........Kauri

Nick Radge · 13 November 2007

Post #2128:

What one should be aware off is that the other side to the Commercials trades are large speculators, specifically the large CTA funds that follow trends. When they decide to exit there will be a sizable, if not brief, selloff. We've seen this in more recent times so we should expect more of it in the future. (PS: this same thing happens with all commodities - not just gold).

Last nights activity is exactly what I was talking about.

Sean K · 13 November 2007

1209 [Dow Jones] Spot gold recovers half of early selloff, last bid $797.40, after early Asian downdraft pushed price through $798 from $802, triggering stop loss selling, which in a thin bidding market eventually bottomed out around $792, Sydney trader says. Tocom opening saw some initial selling, but that market now also has recovered a little, trader says, adding weaker crude oil weighing on spot gold. Unlike yesterday, little push either way from USD, though that has weakened since 0010 GMT. Trader notes sharp fall for gold from $846 late last week, says "it was a correction we needed to have, the market was very long"; adds probably today in Asia "at least we'll see a bit of support at $790." (RCB)

bean · 13 November 2007

bean said:
For historical purposes POG biggest drop US$ 42.50 on 28th Feb 1983

That however was a 10% drop.

The action yesterday on Comex
Comex spot gold price
Date Open High Low Last Change
11/12/07 830.50 830.50 792.25 794.05 -37.85

Not quite biggest drop... maybe this correction is over
re-entered today as US gold Indies completed a run of 1 up and 4 down and the gold indexes fell into to support at same time.

For historical purposes
POG highest US$ 850 on the 21st January 1980

explod · 13 November 2007

Yes there is general consensus that the correction was a given. Looks like the bottom at US$795 has been confirmed. Again the US dollar index is the key driver at this time which confirms that unbacked fiat currencies will implode to naught given time. The US index shows the clear downtrend of the last few months and how it has again turned down today off the upper trend line. The gold price will recover accordingly..

rederob · 13 November 2007

bean said:
For historical purposes
POG highest US$ 850 on the 21st January 1980

Are you sure, bean?

explod · 13 November 2007

rederob said:
Are you sure, bean?

Yes I believe Bean has it about right. Gold did during a trading day spike above US$900 However it is the closing price that is recorded as the value.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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