Gold Price - Where is it heading?

wavepicker said:

The USD generally rallies between Dec to Feb on a seasonal bsis. Whatever Gold is gonna do it's running out of time on this leg up IMO.

Click to expand...

So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?

Wavepicker thanks for the explanation.
Kennas if this is C wave down POG US$ 540 back on the table

However first lets look at possible support for Gold Indexs
Period 10-14 sept I mentioned the indexs were in support and resistance range well that should be first support levels to look at.
HUI was 365 XAU 155 userx 16.00
Today 388 168 17.44
So 5-10% to fall see how they respond near that level
Should be there in a few days

I still believe Gold Indexs and market in general is moving together.
But I see no weakness in US Market
Is it going to have a Gap down out of the blue???

S&P 500 did that complete a B wave from the lows in August???
Nasdaq has strength making highs.
Reporting kicks in tomorrow has it been buy and now going to be sell the news??

A lot of Aussie gold stocks made there high on the 1st October

chops_a_must said:

So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?

Click to expand...

Do you know what a price chart is??

chops_a_must said:

So what did gold do between December and January 05-06?

Click to expand...

Chopps,

Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.

i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.

with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.

I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....

Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?

I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.

sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!

Regards
Joseph

Trade_It said:

Chopps,

Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.

i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.

with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.

I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....

Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?

I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.

In closing, If you left ASF i would neither care or notice. If Wavepicker left there would be a massive hole in quality anaysis in here!

sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!

Regards
Joseph

Click to expand...

I am very appreciative.

But as my philosophical predisposition dictates; I question, question, question. When one stops questioning, one stops learning.

I don't like inductivism, am a fan of Poppers and dislike the "all swans are white" mentality. Hence the nitpicking.

The onus of proof isn't on me to provide evidence for seasonal analysis. My criticism can be as simple as, "Where is your proof?" In which in this case, in part, it is.

I have absolutely no doubt Wavepicker is an excellent trader. His discretionary choice when taking trades is superb, with entries at low risk points, where confirmation is quick and allows for maximum profit run (and this is demonstrable in his posts). That is the key IMO to any discretionary set up.

No, I don't have time analysis, and there are philosophical reasons why I won't attempt this, as well as practical. I don't use much margin, so it is not a factor on the practical side. And on the philosophical side; free markets and capitalism are based on a philosophy that did not account for time - they are pre-transcendental.

And no, I don't read reports like the herd. If you've followed me long enough on here, you will know I've been on stocks well before they have taken off. AOE, AED and ESG to name a few. Not to mention the eco-tech stocks.

I appreciate greatly what Wavepicker has to say. Even when I'm saying I disagree with him, a lot of the time I secretly am in agreeance. There is nothing like thinking harder when someone forces you too. And as I have said to Waves before, even though I've only attempted to use EW a few times (with pretty good results), I do believe it works well if you subscribe to the idea that free markets are another place where game theory can be applied.

I know ASF would be worse off if he left. But my point is to push him to an even higher level of analysis, which is how I like to be pushed in my areas of expertise.

I know I am incredibly lucky to be exposed to great traders on here. If it wasn't for this forum, I never would have read Nick's book, and never would have exceeded my expectations in my first year of trading. And I certainly wouldn't be looking at taking the path I now am, without being exposed to the great variety of traders that are on here.

So in summary, I'm sorry if my natural way of questioning and way of learning rubs people up the wrong way. It's certainly not my intention. But I guess that's why Socrates was so hated hey?

Thanks for taking the time to read.

Cheers,
Chops.

I'd like to settle this in the best manner I know, with a chart.
My comments a few posts ago where that the USD was generally seasonally stronger during the months of Dec-Feb. Most seasoned Forex traders know this so it's nothing new.

Let's look at the chart attached for the last 3 years:-

2004: USD Rallied from Feb to May
2005: USD Rallied Dec to November
2006: USD Rallied Jan-Feb

Just to name a few years....

Chops A Must is a nitpicker if I ever saw one. Perhaps if he focused his efforts elsewhere he might learn something that might actually help his style.

His posts are rarely constructive and give him an inch and he will attack without hesitation, especially if it does not suit his circumstances. Well if that’s the way you like it Chops then fine, I’ll be watching your posts from now on baby.

At times I make posts trades/forecasts here like others Chops, some work out others don’t. I like to share my thoughts with other traders and exchange ideas as well as look at alternative view points because I like others have biases.

How about you share some of your thoughts and rationale behind your trades as well in a constructive manner instead attacking. Most other do, why can’t you?

PS: if you don’t like what I have to say then it’s simple, put me on your ignore list and read something else, it’s really easy, I am sure you can do it. 

wavepicker said:

How about you share some of your thoughts and rationale behind your trades as well in a constructive manner instead attacking. Most other do, why can’t you?

Click to expand...

I have and will continue to. Check the previous page for a potential set up on GOLD.

The USD index has now put in a hard bottom after a mini-capitulation. I certainly wouldn't be short at the moment. And no, I'm not long on anything gold at the moment either. If anything I would be short.

Trade_It said:

Chopps,

Wavepickers point is its seasonally not a deffinate no one is saying its a sure thing to happen so why are you always coming out with points to shot his comments down.

i looked at the chart and yes gold rallied though there so now here is your challenge u go back though spot gold for the last 100 years and work out the rises to the falls in that time period. then you will have your own answer.

with any seasonal occurance you can find times it did not work to shot down a that posters point.

I will tell u something some free advice if u like.....

Wavepicker is a excelent trader, one of if not the best who posts in here he is one of the few that can pin point market turn dates. Do u have a proven time analysis aspect to your trading or are u herad following report reading hope junkie?

I have learnt so much from Wavepicker and i don't use EW at all, so I suggest u appreciate what he has to say, whether u agree or disagree with his analysis.

sorry to sound Harsh, but u don't know how lucky your are as a new young trader to be exposed to this kind of analysis open your mind mate!

Regards
Joseph

Click to expand...

I appreciate your comments Joseph,

I must be honest here and say I have had problems with certain members of this community at times, probably more so from writing style and misunderstandings as I have always had problems with conveying my thoughts via written expression.

However I am very thankful for this site for giving me the opportunities to meet other traders such as yourself, Richkid and in particular Magdoran, who was not only a close neighbor(I didn’t know that before I met him), but also now a very close friend and probably the trader who has had the greatest influences on thinking. He has helped me tremendously in particular, in un shackling my biases and also helping look at the market in a more objective manner, and believe me I can be stubborn at times.

Also for drumming into me the importance of TIME(at which I am still a novice in comparison). As WD Gann said Time is more important than price, when time is up the trend must change.
It’s the only constant on the chart, it doesn’t fluctuate and therefore not only an easier but IMO should be the primary and a superior axis that one should work from. Also the realization that at times there is order in the market, not necessarily always accuracy but certainly order.

This has enabled me to build upon the knowledge that I have and now view the market with new set of eyes, being more open minded about the probabilities/possibilities before making a decision.

I have nicknamed Magdoran “The Master of Time” because I have never met anyone who can call crucial pivots as CONSISTANTLY as he can. At times I believe he under estimates his own abilities.

My journey in this field is in its infancy and it will take me as long to be proficient in this area, probably as much time as it took to go to a higher level using EW.

Kind Regards

Wavepicker

and gold is looking bullish again to me after the small?? W4 retrace..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Kauri said:

and gold is looking bullish again to me after the small?? W4 retrace..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Click to expand...

Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.

The whole advance from the lows of last year looks very sluggish/corrective in my opinion. Would not be surprised if this whole advance is a wave B suckers play. Although there might be another $25 upside from the apex of the triangle I am gonna sit this one out.

wavepicker said:

Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.

The whole advance from the lows of last year looks very sluggish/corrective in my opinion. Would not be surprised if this whole advance is a wave B suckers play. Although there might be another $25 upside from the apex of the triangle I am gonna sit this one out.

Click to expand...

Suckers some of us maybe but I am with the momentum of the uptrend, as to be out of gold and gold stocks could be to miss the uptrend as people rush out of dollars and into anything else that will hold value and a big part of that has to be gold.

explod said:

Suckers some of us maybe but I am with the momentum of the uptrend, as to be out of gold and gold stocks could be to miss the uptrend as people rush out of dollars and into anything else that will hold value and a big part of that has to be gold.

Click to expand...

You do what you think is best my friend, you are the captain of your own ship, just giving my opinion which has been wrong as many times as it has been right. However I don't disagree there is probably a little more upside from here.

Was not referring to you or anybody else holding as suckers, but rather describing the type of move or pattern of trend (wave B)

Cheers

wavepicker said:

Sure looks like a typical wave 4 pattern Kauri(perhaps a developing contracting triangle). If this is the case then this might be the last leg up in this impulse from the last consolidation, as these types of patterns often precede wave 5’s.

Click to expand...

Might be too early to call but looks like the contracting triangle may be breaking up. Holding above $742 might do it.

Futures just breaking $750, HUI/XAU breaking up to record highs, while DJI comes off a little....

I wonder how much of the next expected rate cut if factored in to USD weakness and these gains.

Bean, I can't see how your $540 can be still on the table here.

kennas said:

Might be too early to call but looks like the contracting triangle may be breaking up. Holding above $742 might do it.

Futures just breaking $750, HUI/XAU breaking up to record highs, while DJI comes off a little....

I wonder how much of the next expected rate cut if factored in to USD weakness and these gains.

Bean, I can't see how your $540 can be still on the table here.

Click to expand...

Looking at the Spot Price it has not done so, but might do so tommorow I guess??

Happy the DJI is pulling back as I am short it tonight and will have another go at shorting XJO in next few days too.

In April last year had an ultimate target (waveC)for Spot to reach about $490 before resuming bullishly, it never got there although made great $$ in the first wave A leg to $541. Would not surprise it to pull down to this level when wave B is finished which is what am anticipating. But for now Wave B remains unfinished and might make it all the way to $765/770 before this happens??

Gold Wave C to $490 or $541

wavepicker said:

In April last year had an ultimate target (waveC)for Spot to reach about $490 before resuming bullishly, it never got there although made great $$ in the first wave A leg to $541. Would not surprise it to pull down to this level when wave B is finished which is what am anticipating. But for now Wave B remains unfinished and might make it all the way to $765/770 before this happens?

Click to expand...

Hi wavepicker,

Do you mean pull down to the $490 or $541 level?

Trade_It said:

Hi Bean,

I also see some weakness in Gold.

Last night I went short on it,

My reasons this break out has made a normal trend up to it's current position.

formed its frist minor band at 630 normal, but the break out that followed was sold back down to 630 in two sessions, found support around 630 again normal. rallied again to 640's straight away it found weakness forming a creeping band with a lower high that was my entry. POG has weakened again , now if that area of support fails to hold again i will add to my trade. On the bullish side that support may hold again suggesting as long as it can hold above it it's a trading range with a break above 645 to 650 confirming a creeping trend to fast trend up a bullish sign. I am sitting short on it until that is proven.

Good trading.

Click to expand...

Follow up on my short.

Price found support at the 730 range and promptly rallied, I was stopped out for a profit.

still watching gold as its confirmed a range now.

Well the top might be in the POG!!!

I bought some shares today.
However I will say, if this is indeed a breakout a lot of shares have not participated and would expect them to move - catchup
A few shares I bought today
Macmin sold 3 weeks ago at .28 bought back today at .265
Citigold sold 3 weeks ago at .425 bought back to at .41
They did nothing during my absense yet POG and Silver rising.

I have said and still believe the US gold Indexs are still joined to movements in the general market.
At the moment nothing is stopping the Market. It appears to be factoring in two more rate cuts of .5% this year.
The Nasdaq is being driven by Google currently US$630 per share expecting earnings this quarter of $3.95. Google expected to keep rising till it reports next week 18th. By then its price will be about $662 per share.

Will 1 share of Google be worth more than an OZ of Gold by the end of the year?

So until reality hits everything the Market and POG may keep rising.
When reality does hit will everything fall

Gold tonight is making a new 27 year high. With talk of at least another and perhaps more US interest rate cuts the US dollar will resume its downtrend which in turn is bullish for gold.

This weekly gold chart is intersting as it gives a clear view of the first consolidation phase from early 2004 to August of 2005 at around US$430. From then till May 06 we see a jump in the price to a weekly close of about US$714. We then had a sharp drop away but good consolidation at around 650. I am not one to postulate on the potential outcomes from here on the charts as they speak after the event. However there appears good momentum now.

If and perhaps a big if, the gold price can begin to move under its own steam, regardless of the markets (as you have identified Bean) this next upleg could go to the US$1,000 mark in the next month or two.

It will be interesting to see what unfolds as a number of major investment houses are recommending their clients hold up to 20%gold or gold stocks in thier portfolios. So compared to the spike of 2006 there is a whole new and stronger level of interest.

Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Gold broke the 750 USD mark at about 2am our time
not moving as much on the cross rates...just the USD.

Clear Sky's hey.

I was watching kitco earlier when a banner popped up inviting people to test a new kitco software product KCAST. It drops the live price of Gold, platinum, palladium and silver onto your system tray near the time. You can show all or any one. Right click on the price and bring up a 24 hour chart, click the button on the window to change to 30 day, 6 months or year.

I got it for free. All they ask for is some feedback daily. Anyone else get it?

For me it beats having another browser window open or frequently hitting the favourites link and back again.

This is the daily chart.