Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold or gold stocks?

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MrBurns said:
They're cheaper now if you know where to look, I dont.
Saw an 06" Cayman S for $95,000 damn cheap, better in gold though:D
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wow that is cheap. i very much like the cayman S also.. pity they dont have a GT3 version of it.. would be better than a 911 GT3 imo..

Right now i just cant justify spending so much money on a car. Even if it is "cheap" :)

Some smart people are suggesting that when the current deflation ends that hard asset prices (like commodities) will inflate very quickly... i want as much cash as possible on hand for when that happens!
 
kransky said:
wow that is cheap. i very much like the cayman S also.. pity they dont have a GT3 version of it.. would be better than a 911 GT3 imo..

Right now i just cant justify spending so much money on a car. Even if it is "cheap" :)

Some smart people are suggesting that when the current deflation ends that hard asset prices (like commodities) will inflate very quickly... i want as much cash as possible on hand for when that happens!
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Yes the Cayman and Boxter are mid engine and out handle the 911

I think there's better things to do with the money at present, wouldn't like to be trying to sell a car at the moment:eek:
 
MrBurns said:
Actually if it had more power it would be better than a 911, Porsche have to keep the power down so as not to out do it's flagship.
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If you were getting a Porsche you would have to go the full way and get the 911, for sure. First thing I'll be buying If I ever make that type of money! :)
 
Yes i know this, but even if it had the same power as a 911 TT it would still lack all wheel drive. Ugly design in my opinion & should be marketed at women.

If you were going to pay 100k+ you would want to know & FEEL like you're driving the best, would you feel that in the cayman s ? doubt it, as its made to follow in the shadow of the 911.
 
I hold both

heard a story once ............ it said .."back in the old days 1 oz of gold bought one a suit"

in 2009 it still buys you a suit


dunno if its relevant but it sounded good to me when told
 
Mr Capital said:
Yes i know this, but even if it had the same power as a 911 TT it would still lack all wheel drive. Ugly design in my opinion & should be marketed at women.

If you were going to pay 100k+ you would want to know & FEEL like you're driving the best, would you feel that in the cayman s ? doubt it, as its made to follow in the shadow of the 911.
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Most 911's are 2 wheel drive 911S etc only the 4 has all wheel drive.

It's a bit frustrating, the Cayman is a better handling car and I can get an 06' Cayman S with only 5000k on the clock for $95K at present , yes very cheap, but it's still not a 911, it's a matter of perception not practicality.
 
Just to update the Perth Mint are struggling to hold enough gold stocks in their inventory as alot of large investors are calling in for their stock. Have a look at the prices alot of bullion houses are charging today and that will tell you how much stock they have on hand.

As for gold stocks well its not the gold price you only need to look at but other factors like economy, political etc....
 
Gold shows muscle despite falling production
Barry Fitzgerald
February 23, 2009 >> www.theage.com.au

AUSTRALIA'S gold industry is starting to shine amid the gloom and doom of the global financial crisis. Record local-dollar gold prices ”” up 58 per cent in the past six months ”” are boosting industry revenue despite gold production levels falling to 20-year lows, according to a production survey by Melbourne-based consultancy Surbiton Associates.

Surbiton's latest quarterly gold review found that production for 2008 was 219 tonnes (7 million ounces), down by 29 tonnes or 12 per cent on 2007.

Production in the December quarter alone was 55 tonnes (1.8 million ounces), 3 per cent lower than in the preceding September quarter and down 13 per cent on the previous corresponding period.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said 2008 was the lowest production effort since 1989.

"Output has trended downward over the last decade, in part due to reduced throughput but also due to higher gold prices which have enabled lower-grade ores to be treated profitably," Dr Close said.

Despite the lower production in 2008, the value of production, based on average prices for the year, was $7.3 billion, up from $6.6 billion in 2007.

If the current local price of more than $1500 an ounce had prevailed as the average price in 2008, the value of output would have been worth more than $10.5 billion.

It is the prospect of an additional $3.2 billion-plus in additional annual revenue from higher gold prices that has seen gold equities storm back in to favour with investors.

They are looking for leverage to gold's return as something of a haven during the financial crisis, with confidence in the world's banking system and fiat currencies crumbling.

Dr Close said gold's resurgence made it timely to reflect on the high level of foreign ownership of the industry, now about 60 per cent after US, Canadian and South Africa producers "snapped up half of the Australian gold industry at very attractive prices" when gold prices were low.

"The sell-out occurred when the gold price was in the doldrums and share prices were low," Dr Close said.

"While Australian investors did not value the local industry, others clearly recognised its potential and acted accordingly.

"Sadly, it seems Australian investors often fail to appreciate the long-term value of Australia's mineral resources and are unaware of their strategic value and economic importance.

"Yet our mineral resources, including gold, provide the best hope of paying our way in the world and reducing our escalating trade deficit."
 
Wellington West suggests that poor performance in gold equities vs. physical gold is due partially to “the introduction of more gold ETF products that saw a portion of the investment dollars flow away from gold equities.” And the Stock Research Portal Blog suggests in turn that this diversion is due to the “falling tides lowers all boats theory.” Specifically: price drops in junior mining stocks are due to “cash calls on fund managers.” Via Stock Research Portal
 
Hi guys,

Is it time for the next leg up in gold? Who knows.

The search is now on for those gold miners still representing value.

I think we should go and compare the charts for 1 group:

Market has recognised value and returned strongly to or nearish bull highs:
NCM, LGL, IAU, MML, SGX, SBM, NEM

against another group:

Market has not assigned a significantly rebounded price from bull highs:
IGR, TRY, EXM, HEG, RMS, SBS, AZM

We can see clearly looking at these charts the two groups have two very distinct chart patterns.

Obviously these are not nescessarily apples to apples stocks -some are explorers some are producers some are both-, but the goal here is to try and find some value.

So the question is, do we now go to these relatively lower price expecting value? Or is there a good reason each of them has been left behind by the market from the rush?

Just look at the MML chart compared to TRY for example. Or for another example, look at SBS, why are they almost back at Nov lows when even Citigroup can stage a 34% rebound?

RMS went into a trading halt today on a capital raising announcement. The proceeding price drop might be a good chance to move back in on this one for me. We have missed this opportunity for IGR already.

TRY had $60m in the bank in late Feb (but also good bullion reserves). Will this be enough to take over a decent company? Who would it be and why don't I just buy them?

Marc Faber and others are calling for huge gains in the juniors thanks to this undervaluing.

To be honest, we will probably get the best return from those "sentiment" plays, and these have surely already derived strong benefit from the run up in gold from 681.

On a purely fundamental basis I will pick 3 I like (and currently don't hold) from each group to be narrowed down to a single investment from each group but you guys can make up your own mind.

Group 1:
LGL, NEM, MML

Group 2:
TRY, HEG, IGR

Of all of these 6 only LGL has had a really strong buying volume in the 19th March session. MML had some good buying volume a few days ago.

I held both TRY and IGR and exited at a loss, and now both are significantly higher than purchase price :( However still much much lower when compared to my IAU shares.
 
Ive followed Gold pretty close over the last 2 years...as far as value, quality producers go there's

  • TRY (2 mine operation again...same as when they were $3.90)
  • MDL (first pour today - 3 million ounces)
  • BCD (high grade deposit)
  • OGC (same operation that it was 2 years ago - 70% discount to SP)
  • HEG (early days - potential)

Sure there are others, but IMO these 5 are the standouts as far as value goes.

I hold TRY and MDL and wish i had the guts to buy OGC when they were 16 cents. :rolleyes:
 
Ive seen empirical evidence that investing in gold itself has outperformed gold stocks in the long run, largely because you avoid company specific risks.
 
So_Cynical said:
Ive followed Gold pretty close over the last 2 years...as far as value, quality producers go there's

  • TRY (2 mine operation again...same as when they were $3.90)
  • MDL (first pour today - 3 million ounces)
  • BCD (high grade deposit)
  • OGC (same operation that it was 2 years ago - 70% discount to SP)
  • HEG (early days - potential)

Sure there are others, but IMO these 5 are the standouts as far as value goes.

I hold TRY and MDL and wish i had the guts to buy OGC when they were 16 cents. :rolleyes:
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Hi SC, thanks for your opinion it's great! Nice to note a new one I had not seen before (MDL).

I note MDL has a debt/equity ratio of 8.9%, which is ok considering they have not produced a single ounce yet. Hopefully they will quickly pay this down.

Also in a trading halt for share placement so might be a good opportunity to move in if the price moves down afterwards.

BCD looks like it wants to be a lot higher, the sell side of the order book looking very thin ;)

But along with OGC is way too indebted for my liking.

I think in the end I will choose TRY.
 
Holds TRY , SBM . and boys and gals i reckon a long term squiz at OQC chart maybe viable .. anyone see that long term cup and handle ?(or whatever you lingo using chartists like to cal;l it ) .i do NOT hold as yet but its on my radar/watchlist for a future entry/longer term hold
 
GOLD 15JAN17.png
Gold futures looking good to bust out of large triangle (black dotted lines).
Near term resistance at 1356 and 1372.
If it breaks out then possibly hit 1372 before revisiting triangle before heading up again.
Bullish for Gold and gold stocks.
NCM,SBM,NST,RRL et al looking good.
 
noirua said:
IT’S GO TIME FOR GOLD! NEXT STOP $2,250
September 14, 2020
www.thetechnicaltraders.com

It's Go Time for Gold! Next Stop $2,250 » TheTechnicalTraders

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
www.thetechnicaltraders.com www.thetechnicaltraders.com

View attachment 109176
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I am looking at buying into a few million ounce resource Junior Gold Miners that are in their feasibility stage. Hopefully the mining companies will be well aligned to hit production within the couple of years and be well aligned with the much anticipated precious metal rise.
 

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