Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.
Doubt it'll be over so quick. Too many goldies have cracked significant lows
(12th-April-2013) Despite a down day for gold miners today I decided I wanted to end the week out of gold miners so I sold out of my recent buys into MML, SLR and NST and took a loss. The bulls are in control of the stock market at the moment and gold is being sold down. It will be interesting to see whether it can bounce off or at least stay on support around the 1560 mark. I don't have the stomach for gold miners at the moment though. There are less risky buy signals still popping up here and there.
Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.
Despite a down day for gold miners today I decided I wanted to end the week out of gold miners so I sold out of my recent buys into MML, SLR and NST and took a loss. The bulls are in control of the stock market at the moment and gold is being sold down. It will be interesting to see whether it can bounce off or at least stay on support around the 1560 mark. I don't have the stomach for gold miners at the moment though. There are less risky buy signals still popping up here and there.
I think there is some great value amongst gold mining stocks at the moment including MML, SLR, NST, EVN but like all commodity stocks it doesn't matter how well run the company is the market price of the commodity is the main variable.
Maybe there will be an opportunity to buy some of these stocks at cheaper prices and maybe I will buy back in at higher prices if a positive trend emerges.
Around the globe the money printing continues but their is an absence of fear at the moment.
This helped me make my decision today:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6487&p=765659#post765659
Sooner or later all this printing of money via Japan, USA, and Europe is going to come to a head and gold will be back in favour big time.
You might have to wait a year or longer but a retreat into gold is almost a certainty as some stage given the state of the world economy.
Are you fading that spike Tinhat?
The best time to fade a spike like that is when the market is "too short"...it's so short that the shorts keep covering, thus preventing the price from dropping much more. Usually this is when lots of new selling has joined the market. I'm not sure we are at that stage yet, but we'll see. I'll post a video of the stops getting hit and the long liquidation, you can judge for yourself if it was new shorts as well. Will post in the gold thread.
CanOz
I am indeed heartened by the news that the learned Mr Tinhat has bought back into the market.
I shall disconnect the noose from my rafter forthwith :behead::behead::behead:
MML just lowered their production guidance for the 3rd time in 6 months. Have you updated your valuation to suit?
Agree but probably a breather soon. Gold potentially needs to retest $1500 before really moving to the downside...
but it's just a hunch and certainly not something I'd base my trades on.
Insane, completely insane.
There's a time and we are not there yet.
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Troy at under $1.40 would be compelling.
CanOz - if you have the time please do (and I will try and see if I understand it).
I'm glad to have provided some entertainment to others today. I don't mind looking the fool if I have been foolish. That's why I post here - to learn. I just think I drank too much coffee this morning (being Monday). I seriously need to write a checklist and keep it next to the computer so that I have to tick all the boxes before I hit "Submit" with my online broker. In any case the position I took today, as foolish as it was, was one sixth the size of the total positions I closed on Friday. Patience is a failing of mine.
I did take into account that MML have continued to underdeliver but I should have waited for the release of the Chinese GDP figure which I knew was coming out today.
skc -I think that the question of fundamental value is the problem with my decision to buy back into MML too early. The fire in the mine obviously was a big setback for them. If they do get back on track and achieve their expansion plans my most pessimistic valuation would be $8 at least by the time they get up to 200,000 ounces per annum (depends on the price of gold of course). I want to be long MML in the long run. I have been in and out of it a bit over the last three years.
... I am confident that the company is in good shape so not likely to shut up shop so I won't loose the lot. ...
Congrats! This the ultimate of hard questions.
My intent is kind, though the tone might be harsh.
Clearly, you have put them in the "bottom draw".
Now your asking if you should have or not.
This cuts to the heart of your plan.
Was it your plan to have a lottery ticket in your portfolio?If so, all is well and going to plan.
If not, you will need to learn to use stop losses.
Are you investing, trading or speculating?An investor probably would have avoided this stock.
A trader would have stopped out with a small loss.
My opinion, FWIW
I feel you are resigned to hold them awhile until the price returns.
Yeah, thanks Tinny, as they say, "the day we stop learning is the day we die". Got a question for you.
In regard to selling, I remained patient and decided not to sell my SAR. Having said that, I only have 1500, this is all a learning exercise to me at the moment. But, they are down 38% of value since I bought them about 4 weeks ago.
Clearly, there is little value in me selling @0.21 and making a loss but my question is, do you think I am right in holding onto them until the value recovers? I am confident that the company is in good shape so not likely to shut up shop so I won't loose the lot. Or, do you think, even though I have lost this much value, is it still worth reinvesting the current stock into something that is likely to start making some gains straight away, eg Financials?
Your advise would be gratefully appreciated.
Call me completely insane but I just bought some MML at $3.48.
Trust me - my advice is not valuable and I can't give you any anyway. I don't know anything about SAR but I would say your decision whether to hold for the medium-long term would depend a lot on their cost of production against where you think the price of gold might be in the medium term and whether you think the management are any good. Fundamental investors will tell you that the market price doesn't matter in determining the value of the company. But it depends on how much risk and volatility you are prepared to wear. And also, for a miner they are beholden to the underlying price of the commodity which they have little influence over. They are price takers - so at the end of the day it is all about forecasting price and knowing the cost of production.
Given we are talking about a few hundred dollars in value now it may not matter too much whether you sell or hold if you are prepared to forget about it for the time being. As for selling and going into financial instead, well that would be selling low and buying high. I don't know whether the financials are going to rally another 5, 10 or 20 percent but, unless you are looking for long term dividend, I don't know that financials are the right place to be looking for capital gain just now.
Stan Weinstein's "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" is the best introduction I've read to trend trading and a simple method of setting stop-losses. With stop-losses you've got to maintain the discipline and take the psychological pain of sticking to them and accept that a lot of the time you will be whipsawed out of a position but that in the long run they will work in your favour. And don't be too eager to jump back in "early" like I demonstrated yesterday.
Doesn't SAR have a cost of production of $1,600 per oz?
I don't research or buy mining stocks, but the difference between the figure you have quoted vs the one in this article is compelling:Average cash costs $AUD971 per oz @ Dec 2012
Ohh!!! You were just kidding ... right!?
Take Saracen, a small WA goldminer whose all-in costs have been pushing $1600 an ounce. While those sorts of production costs rightly ring alarm bells, part of the cause lies in the fact the company has been spending up on expansion of its Whirling Dervish mine, which will ensure greater production as early as next year.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...l-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html#ixzz2Qanl0wVO
I don't research or buy mining stocks, but the difference between the figure you have quoted vs the one in this article is compelling:
Does it mean that margins now are low but won't be forever?
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