Gold Mining Stocks

[skc]

There's a relief rally in gold stocks to be bought now I think.

EVN down 19%.
RSG up 5 %.

That's about as wide a spread I have seen in the same sector without stock specific news.

 

[tinhat]

Here is the graphic from the article I linked to above, from January 2013. Tip - if you can't get behind the news ltd paywall, google the headline then click on the link from google. Usually that will let you through the pay-wall.

 

[tinhat]

There's a relief rally in gold stocks to be bought now I think.

EVN down 19%.
RSG up 5 %.

That's about as wide a spread I have seen in the same sector without stock specific news.

I just bought some more MML at $3.05. Will check out the other miners.

 

[tinhat]

Today's SMH about gold miners costs:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/highcost-producers-feel-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html

 

[skc]

Today's SMH about gold miners costs:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/highcost-producers-feel-the-pinch-20130415-2hw3k.html

This is from Morgan Stanley. I don't know about it's accurate or methodology.

 

[So_Cynical]

Here is the graphic from the article I linked to above, from January 2013. Tip - if you can't get behind the news ltd paywall, google the headline then click on the link from google. Usually that will let you through the pay-wall.

View attachment 51789

As your attachment indicates, world average price is about 1000 USD...at 1300 USD an ounce a would reckon that 10% of miners world wide would be losing money unless they have a high POG hedging arrangement.

 

[CanOz]

As your attachment indicates, world average price is about 1000 USD...at 1300 USD an ounce a would reckon that 10% of miners world wide would be losing money unless they have a high POG hedging arrangement.

Maybe the producers conspired to push the down, having added to their commercial short position the week before. Just hire an investment bank, give them 1 billion bucks....

"make sure you make it look like stops getting hit....we're near the low, so now's the time to do it..."

 

[jimbowan]

Its quiet here Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!

What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?

Are they even a good play or should I be listening to the doomsayers and be down the mint?

I am quite liking TRY, SLR and NCM at current prices.

I know no direct advice can be given, however was hoping someone with more experience than me can shed some light on whether being patient and following my strategy is valid in this crazy gold drop week or just get in now.

 

[tinhat]

Its quiet here Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!

What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?

Are they even a good play or should I be listening to the doomsayers and be down the mint?

I am quite liking TRY, SLR and NCM at current prices.

I know no direct advice can be given, however was hoping someone with more experience than me can shed some light on whether being patient and following my strategy is valid in this crazy gold drop week or just get in now.

View attachment 51825

Mate we are waiting for them to all start holding hands and sing Kumbaya in the "gold price -where's it heading" thread first.

Everything down again today. The exception on my watch list is RMS.

 

[So_Cynical]

Its quiet here Is that because everyone is out loading up on physical bullion?!

What are peoples feelings on entering the gold stock arena? Dont worry about the charts just get in now? Wait til they show some bounce?

Are they even a good play or should I be listening to the doomsayers and be down the mint?

I am quite liking TRY, SLR and NCM at current prices.

I'm waiting patiently as i have been for 2 years since selling out of my gold stocks (was left holding 1 very cheap parcel) ~ TRY and NCM are the only 2 miners worth owning in my opinion and im not budging till i see $1.40 and $14.99

When knife catching you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.

 

[jancha]

I'm waiting patiently as i have been for 2 years since selling out of my gold stocks (was left holding 1 very cheap parcel) ~ TRY and NCM are the only 2 miners worth owning in my opinion and im not budging till i see $1.40 and $14.99

When knife catching you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.

Caught the knife with NCM @ $15.98 yesterday. If the POG drops back down and NCM should follow I'll buy another parcel @ $14.99. If the POG doesn't fall dramatically again I don't think it will get to $14.99 hence the buy.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

My experience with knife catching is that the win rate is low (may require multiple attempts at feeling out the support), but the risk can be fairly low also, so long as the volatility isn't too high. High volatility knife catching is much harder unless there's a huge support that everyone sees. If that's the case I'd hope for it to drop below the support and catch the Vic 2b pattern. Some stocks did that today.

 

[So_Cynical]

My experience with knife catching is that the win rate is low

My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6% just takes a while to come around is all.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6% just takes a while to come around is all.

It all depends on what kind of falling knife you are trying to catch.

If it is a good quality stock with good fundamentals that is getting hammered then the win rate can be quite good.

I couldnt resist I bought SLR today at 1.30. It is a medium term buy so I am prepared to wait awhile for it to bear fruit.

I cant believe that gold wont rise again especially with all the money printing going on and the precarious nature of many countries in the euro zone.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

My experience is the win rate is very high, in fact about 81.6% just takes a while to come around is all.

Sounds good. How long do you hold?

 

[So_Cynical]

Sounds good. How long do you hold?

A long time, that's the trick..use time to your advantage.

Average time held for closed winning trades is 407 days.

--------------

For example while on the subject of Gold stocks....my best ever Gold stock result is as follows

TRY - Troy resources

• Entry 13 Nov 2008 @ $0.77
• Exit 9 Aug 2011 @ $4.07
• Total Days Held 999
• Total Gross Trade Profit 386.97%

 

[Gringotts Bank]

A long time, that's the trick..use time to your advantage.

Average time held for closed winning trades is 407 days.

--------------

For example while on the subject of Gold stocks....my best ever Gold stock result is as follows

TRY - Troy resources

• Entry 13 Nov 2008 @ $0.77
• Exit 9 Aug 2011 @ $4.07
• Total Days Held 999
• Total Gross Trade Profit 386.97%

Thanks. Buy on a big dip and sell on a wide trailing stop - Is that basically the idea? Do you combine with FA?

 

[So_Cynical]

Thanks. Buy on a big dip and sell on a wide trailing stop - Is that basically the idea? Do you combine with FA?

Big dip for sure, no stops...from memory TRY continued to fall and traded as low as 0.58 over the 3 or 4 weeks after i bought....a stop would of taken me out at exactly the wrong time - the bottom.

The FA at the time was compelling (again from memory) Troy's MC was about 10 million below its cash holdings (approx 50 mill), combine that with 2 small profitable (producing at a profit) gold mines and zero debt.

2008 those were the days.

I found the old post, thread called "Companies with cash backing above MC" note the date

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13442&p=364875&viewfull=1#post364875

 

[tinhat]

I couldn't help myself from buying som SLR for 1.01 this morning.

Did anyone else notice that NST seemed to stop trading on the commsec platform for a while there a bit after 11am this morning?

 

[Intrinsic Value]

I couldn't help myself from buying som SLR for 1.01 this morning.

Did anyone else notice that NST seemed to stop trading on the commsec platform for a while there a bit after 11am this morning?

Yeah looks like I jumped a little early. 1.01 has got to be a good long term play for SLR. As long as you have the nerve to hold if it dips further in the short term think you will do well.

I am thinking of buying some more just havent pulled the trigger. I am going to wait a couple more days and see which way it is going first. If it dips below the dollar mark it could drop much further pretty quickly.