Gold Daytraders

[Joules MM1]

J,

you write in hieroglyphics.

Are you suggesting a final shove lower before we push through the upper key resistance level (I tend to agree???!!)

ha!

in the context of monthly bear market ....we havent finished the current up-down-up cycle to complete a bounce of the 2011 bear phase

 

[Joules MM1]

J,

you write in hieroglyphics.

Are you suggesting a final shove lower before we push through the upper key resistance level (I tend to agree???!!)

additionally: in the nearterm, ratios within $silver that i am using as surrogate has two distinct ratios which are now calling on the integrity of the technique, it is an unequivocal signal either side of the tri based on both $silver and $gold previous patterns and the ratios give the construct specific levels within the structure

bronze H1 > L1 = to green H1 > blue L1 (all bronze to green high thru blue low)
green H1>L1 = blue H1>L1 (all green to all blue, a ratio of 1:1 or A=C within AxBxC down-up-down)

these for front month cfd connies, all hours pricing, rarely ever wrong when the structure is clearly defined
so rarely-ever implies above the tri is a break-out to go long, below the tri is an at the offer break-out

as is best i can explain it, obviously there are smaller swings within swings so it is important to define plays based on the structure, meaning, added to this is an orthodox listing (AxBxCxDxE)of the moves where the final move (E) may not move beyond the previous larger swing (C) and it iself is usually a ratio of 50-62%
and those two lengths keep the context and breaking that context would be a strong clue that the tri structure is still developing re-assigning risk levels

out of these structures there is an energy release, not a pop, more a consistant impulsive set of swings in the larger direction of the break

longs on both instruments with specific risk levels for sizes and ratios, if the larger silver leg upwards is merely a large 1:1 ratio (which i doubt) then the target is 21.88's, rather than saying it's the target as a prediction, it is a target as a measure in that it is a major third-largest swing, therefor it adheres to the regime of that size

 

[peter2]

Heck I had to log in again just to see Joules's charts. The detailed explanation went over my head.

My monthly gold chart is bullish with a BO level >1370. There's and ascending triangle, a series of HLs off the low. But it hasn't broken out yet.

My daily chart shows price in a corrective move that's close to completion near 1300 (50% level).

 

[Joules MM1]

 

[rnr]

View attachment 86443

Hi Joules,

I have noticed that you have posted charts depicting divergence before and it has got me wondering where you initiate trades on this basis.

 

[Joules MM1]

Hi Joules,

I have noticed that you have posted charts depicting divergence before and it has got me wondering where you initiate trades on this basis.

with divergence of any kind i am looking for supporting evidence of either momentum or directional strength, in this instance there maybe a symmetry and the divergence supports price reaching that symmetry (same size price length as the previous swing)...when placing a trade on a divergence by the time the divergence has any semblence of confirmation the risk is usually distorted, risk has moved to wide to be valuable


i dont trade divergence mostly as it is a hindsight confirmation and impractical to trade in foresight, impossible to trade in hingsight

with the $dx the hindsight divergence favours the current swing against the larger trend, anecdotally, as a countertrend swing, confirming more of the same when the swing is complete, as the move was not preceded by a puke or a reverse build (in other words i am not seeing a bookbuild type series, like a small congestion zone where money thinks it's time to buy and gather easy supply, followed by a puke)
$dx appears to be trending well which supports the upside for PM's

ok, so the real problem with divergences and how come most traders get caught is very simple and takes time to read without other data points, it is the function of headfakes to assign an emotive logic to the idea that a trend is about to have a substantial rotation based on a divergence, simply because, a head fake is a higher or lower price movement when the trade activity has a shift in the idea of value but only by the group involved in that period of time which may or may not be by design, however, it is fair to say that to say that when i trade based soley on the basis of price lengths and not reason i think the price length occured then i am less likely to find myself trapped, in this instance, $dx is saying while it is a better idea to stay out of the gold longs it's a safer bet NOT to open a short on gold as $dx has already proven its trend (at least shown a clean series of L/H's and L/L's) and recently i've been less active on PM's due to the top quality moves in most indexes

the larger challenge with divergences (regardless of setting) is that they offer no actual or definitive context, only the trader can provide the context, to which the obvious danger is 50/50 in applying correctly or incorrectly, resulting in increased risk on decreased risk...

 

[Joules MM1]

just to be clear

trading on a divergence and/or convergence is actually not possible

when price bars print there is always divergence or convergence of some degree, then we may or may not see that D/C more often due to its size ......that alone tells me how unreliable these things are regardless of the indicia construct

if its true that price needs to print for a trader to know if a trade is correctly placed and price is always printing in the present, then, it is fair to say, divergence/convergences are at best a widening of risk and of course they are not measurable, in the present, so if theyre not measurable until they are complete (we say theyre no longer useful) then it is also fair to say they have little to do with what price is printing rather they are supportive of price movement in that direction the trade is already open to, only because we say so

 

[peter2]

Gold long: Bought 1319.70, iSL at 1314.5. (TR 5.2 x 100USD = 520USD)
4H pinbar reversal, shallow PB and bought the BO of the UK session.
T1 = 1325, T2 = 1330.5.
Will I be able to hold on if price is on the way to 1359?

The first and important test is staying above yesterday's high. If it can't do that then it's not ready yet in spite of Putin's nuclear claims.

 

[Joules MM1]

Gold long: Bought 1319.70, iSL at 1314.5. (TR 5.2 x 100USD = 520USD)
4H pinbar reversal, shallow PB and bought the BO of the UK session.
T1 = 1325, T2 = 1330.5.
Will I be able to hold on if price is on the way to 1359?
View attachment 86462
The first and important test is staying above yesterday's high. If it can't do that then it's not ready yet in spite of Putin's nuclear claims.

@peter2 your basic abc down-up-down has been achieved and a tosh ongoing on the restest of that low,
local xgd components fearing the worst are selling this arvo too

 

[Joules MM1]

longs on have the strength, just...which is enough!

 

[Joules MM1]

with so many cfd/equity players looking for more the law of weak supply/ weak accumulation is the game as per the overlaying chop upwards which is likely to become impulsive as early shorters have to cover

 

[Joules MM1]

risk levels

 

[Joules MM1]

when's an arb not just an inv correlation?

 

[Joules MM1]

cue the benny hill theme

 

[Joules MM1]

sometimes theyre a slug sometimes i get slugged and then sometimes toot-toot!



scaled for the weekend

 

[Joules MM1]

suspect xgd components red tomorrow

fridays news game to suck in longs ?

 

[Joules MM1]

in the front month cfd 1302's reps an important decision level, tech speaking, as the simple ABC that led to that swing low will become something detrimental when broken to the health of longs who are, more and more, expecting a bull run ...of course, as we've seen a lot of congestion (conjecture of value) there's no law of supply and demand that says we cannot rotate in this area for a few more days/weeks to come espesh with the $dx now you see me now ya dont

- be bendy!

 

[Joules MM1]

flipflop

there are some minute ratios inside the play yet this is the dominant one that got a rejection of the downswing....

 

[Joules MM1]

decision time, bulls are going to run out of excuses pretty soon, COT not extreme by either camp still favouring the upside (more of the same in the nearterm)

into the area of the reversal call based on measures that say we now confirm a major downswing or a continuation to conclude the weekly upswing (that corrects the the monthly downtrend)

or do we.....or is it!! ....levels levels levels !!

 

[Joules MM1]

what-if target if todays move travels back thru 19's for
an initial break-out then an initial thrust target (100% time x price)1388-90 opens