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Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:35:17
i'm short gol at 69's s. 81's
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:33:07
that'll back the call on gold
Joules MM1
2016-Oct-28 18:32:55
sell signal for silver is 1754 front month cfd

----------------

the weak and overlapping lift in gold/silver are mere pauses in a bigger swing to correct the daily since the weekly lows

prospective areas for gold swings now lay in 1227's ratio to half zone 1210's (front month cfd)
 
even when a lift is overlapping and dirty it doesnt mean print cannot become impulsive, in other words, all trades being balanced, dependent on your time view and trade cycle, the pressure as i type is up, ll other opinions notwithstanding....

gold dirty bid.png
 
1194 appears next target, covering well underway, doubt for sellers + hope for buyers...buyer beware, it's all a fishing trip, happy new years gold 1194 target 301216.png
 
kid hustlr said:
How do you see the longer term outlook J? Still cautious of more downward pressure longer term?
Click to expand...

Also interested in Joules thoughts.

FWIW I have the current pattern playing out "textbook" if it follows a couple more legs.
The 2016 4:3 (Up/down ratio) has already completed with the bounce off the mid 1120 area currently in play.

If it bounces anywhere up to 1190ish then has a final sharp dip into 1070ish I see potential for a sustained rally/reversal (maybe even years)

If that pattern fails however and the 2016 lows are broken with little resistance it might get a bit untidy in the short term!

Simplistic Chart below for future reference a few months from now.2016-12-30 Gold Weekly.jpg
 
hi K, hi Barney

silver hasnt made the same retreat as gold but close enough, gold made at 76.4% retrace, enough for a call of the low...there's no reason the play cannot go as you've annotated, Barney, i am inclined to think we have a good cause to think the low maybe in place for an attempt at another swing to the upside even if mostly driven by forced covering....we wont know for a cupla more days and much dependent on how the $DX plays in its current uptrend
we can take from the COT that we are at an extreme of sentiment from bull to bear and we are prob well passed any normal tipping point of sentiment (retracing 75%+ usually brings in a swing past the centre point of sentiment - borne out by the constant huge 80%+ of buyers in the cfd)

while the contracts size of Commercials are not as low as say the weekly swing low we can be pretty sure, relatively speaking, that given the recent daily run and the retracement the STO contract size and low participation are saying we're due a healthy attempt at another bounce high (i'm assuming the people bidding up the local $XGD components today at +6% agree)
the $HUI is on a belter impulsive bid too an a pass of 222's would stamp a new upswing

the thing is, dependent your T technique, you have to discern what levels imply what reach of price extremes you'll act on ....for me the two different things i am looking for is a subtle series of messages and ratios that hint we are in a swing north with specific larger levels to define my risk on, in this instance i am only looking for 1194's cfd given the time of the year and that we could be setting up for a hook to swing south (which would be ideal to stamp the bear mentality for retail) but as i say over n over, in a bounce, there is no law that says an overlapping price cannot go impulsively bid, so, that means, i need to play the smaller swings until price moves beyond the immediate series of ratios that tell a different story, signifying a different risk, to either group and what is the extent/probability of that risk .....keep in mind that ratios are like habits, or repeat cycles if you like; if/when a liquidity group decides it has reached it's zone then that zone will usually have a relationship, the question is where and when as well as what level has been achieved and the opposing pressure will allow....so a price relationship is merely the point at which an intent has been reached for both groups, if that intent is based on an area of value, then, that value has a relationship.....

speaking of relationships, a gnarly thing for some maybe, is the time taken:
if we take the weekly xau swing low (the bear trend) and the most recent daily swing high july 6th (dependent your contract) and we project that to the recent daily swing low you should find we have also taken a time ratio of 1:.764 - that is - from the L to H as 100% then to recent L x 76.4% of the time (with gold within a few cents of retracing in price, a 76.4% move too)

while time may not be factor for some it should be observed that many major players who determine price trend are not currently at their desks.......so that begs the question of how much does time play and it should also be noted that most of the players who've determined the recent swing south may therefor have decided they prefer to wait for higher price values in which to sell, keeping in mind the old axiom sell strength buy weakness, swings within swings considering the last 5 years, the odds favour a new bounce attempt for those major players to exit their positions at better prices and not be assistant of price destruction...the low participation tends to hint at this and the sudden bid-side energy in the $HUI makes me think mid-tier money thinks this too......let the gators chomp on themselves to get the "bargains"

you may also find it interesting on a cyclical perspective we traveled a 55 week cycle from the weekly bear trend low to the recent daily swing low ....if you do a quick back test on the 55 week cycle you'll quickly find repetition, yes, not all are significant, however, enough repetition that says only a dumbass would ignore the constant occurrence (often referred to as coincidence)

in the bigger picture we still have very healthy deflation from a trade perspective, a positive feedback loop, strengthening the US $, weakness in commods....more cycles within cycles..
+ the bond market is likely to re-attract liquidity away from metals, as guess (not my area of expertise) either way, liquidity attracted to metals is likely more a cycle of speculation than a trend of value

the question now is how quickly are managers likely to grab at the current bounce keeping in mind that many pundits think the US equity scene is over extended even tho we know that in a major bull leg over-extended is a piece of string...plenty of trend following managers will have reversed their longs so i'll be looking for any tells that theyre forced to cover

.....if an equity market is over-extended, rather than simply selling (no evidence that I can see in the 21 day and 13 week money flows) then we can also speculate that margined money will find its way into "bargains" such as gold may currently present with its sentiment being heavily beaten down compared to the first bounce-high...there's still a lot of easy money around, cheap debt to fuel more longterm head fakes.....

and keeping in mind that some of the best bounces, in hindsight, look nothing like the patterns you have in your saved files ....so levels mean so much more than predictions .....as they do most of the time i think

ha ! .....coffee ..
 
for the sake of clarity, i am currently (today with wider time frame in mind) long spx and honkers

honkers should rip a new one upside from here:

@rvm__ honkers passing prev swing at 21900 cash saying trains leaving BTO station, 21490's s.
 
here's a good analogy of belief
$HUI x $XAU versus $GOLD

look at the extreme of liquidity swing (as a game of extracting value from an auction instrument) compared to the players who have a larger view to the upside in mind.....the question is always about who commits to which game the fastest, or, who stays committed and adds to that commitment in terms of the sense of value if not the yield of value

.....if the depth of the pullback is in the spot auction, the reactive hot money (far right), is matched by less than half in the "value" indexes, is it fair to pose the idea that the upside is a long way from finished?

Is it fair to say that the slow money has a stronger commitment than the spot suggests?

gold x HUI x XAU 301216.png
 
Cool thoughts J, just what I needed to read early on a Saturday morning!

I like the comparisons between the indexes and the spot, if I'm running money I'd buy the share exposure first then drive the spot. so much more bang for your buck(y)

I lifted the offer on NCM on xmas eve - I'm still not sure of the long term trend in spot itself but to me a bounce for the like of GDX and NCM from here would suggest at worst a retest of the low and months/years of continuing to build a 'base' or at best a clean re-test of the lows with huge upside potential if the eventual run higher was to occur.

Of course shorter term this could simply be a pull back and the last 6 months of action are still in a down trend but I've kind of accepted I'm going to have to have a few goes at this one if I really want to capture what I perceive a really big long term trend (at some stage!)

EDIT: USD concerns are very valid - I can't see gold running with the USD in its current and future state.
 
kid hustlr said:
I lifted the offer on NCM on xmas eve - I'm still not sure of the long term trend in spot itself but to me a bounce for the like of GDX and NCM from here would suggest at worst a retest of the low and months/years of continuing to build a 'base' or at best a clean re-test of the lows with huge upside potential if the eventual run higher was to occur.
Click to expand...

Just to follow through here - bird in the hand and all of that I'm going to sell half on open this morning for a pretty tidy profit and then bottom draw the rest with stop at b/e.

Even a blind squirrel can find a nut
 
1194's hit and small retreat, action suggests 1220's next target, lots of little battles going on, suggest momo thru 1220's says the bids have won

tiny size game thus far
 
most of the neg sentiment has been washed away on a 98 point hike from a messy bid at 1122's

are we done already (bid exhaustion)?

gold sell 190117.png
 

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