GNS - Gunns Limited

[So_Cynical]

17th-March-2010 into Gunns today at 0.535.

Totally out today at 0.55 - hard to call it a panic sell when its in profit and after i held thru the whole ride down to 26 cents. im mostly selling cos i was so pissed off i couldn't buy at under 28 cents due to being fully invested and the realisation that i brought in way to early (again) and needed to take my money off the Gunns table and re-evaluate.

Anyway moving on as there's so much value in the market ATM with alot less risk than GNS...good luck to the holders.

 

[Toranova]

GNS share price just hit 0.65, bought in at 0.525 right before the drop to 0.435 and now seems to be recovering quite well. Some new contracts and a adjusted forecast for earnings seems to be helping quite a lot.

 

[Toranova]

Share price just hit 0.70. Wonder how long this rise is going to continue, having trouble deciding if I should sell now and make my 30% gain or continue to ride it. Damn choices.

 

[jwillys]

HOLD mate.... I think it will go down to about .66, but will go up again up to .75, but again this is just my personal opinion.. me myself will go in again once the buyer volumes twice of the sellers.

Share price just hit 0.70. Wonder how long this rise is going to continue, having trouble deciding if I should sell now and make my 30% gain or continue to ride it. Damn choices.

 

[Fiat_23]

$1.7242 distribution per security -- is that what Gunns will pay you for each GNS share you hold or does that mean something totally different?

And the Ex Div date would be 27th Sep?

------ Company Anncouncement------
30 August 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Securities Exchange
GNSPA (FORESTS) DISTRIBUTION
Record date 30 September 2010
Face value of securities on issue $120,000,000
Distribution Rate 6.9160%
Total value of quarterly distribution $2,069,160
Distribution per security $1.7243
The distribution rate is calculated as follows:
Market rate 4.88%
Margin 5.00%
9.88%
Multiplied by (1 – tax rate) 0.7
Distribution rate 6.9160%

The distribution will be fully franked and paid on 14 October 2010.

Yours sincerely

Wayne Chapman
Company Secretary

 

[boofhead]

It is for GNSPA and not GNS. Check out the hybrid thread for information. It is an interest bearing security and not a share.

 

[So_Cynical]

$1.7242 distribution per security -- is that what Gunns will pay you for each GNS share you hold or does that mean something totally different?

And the Ex Div date would be 27th Sep?

Pretty sure there was an announcement a month or so ago, saying there would be no dividend for GNS holders.

 

[pigeondog]

What happened to Gunns today? Down more than 20% at one stage and closed down 13%. Recent announcements about closing a mill in WA and finalising the purchase of the Bell Bay Mill don't justify this kind of move. Is there something we don't know?

 

[namrog]

What happened to Gunns today? Down more than 20% at one stage and closed down 13%. Recent announcements about closing a mill in WA and finalising the purchase of the Bell Bay Mill don't justify this kind of move. Is there something we don't know?

Let's look at the things we do know pigeondog.
Gns broke down today through fairly strong previous support around 58 and 55ish cents which would have triggered a lot of stops, and I assume it snowballed a little from there, hitting more and more stops as it fell.
If there is a possitive to be found from todays action , it's that the sp finished a fair bit off the bottom, however the volume assiciated with todays drop, suggests it would be better to stay away from it at this stage, we could end up with a similar performance as seen during februrary last year.
I believe local gos in tasmania has been non too positive lately also, still todays washout could have cleared the decks somewhat.
However, I'd like to see something positive before re-entering...
That's only my oppinion though, so dyodd...

 

[pigeondog]

Let's look at the things we do know pigeondog.
Gns broke down today through fairly strong previous support around 58 and 55ish cents which would have triggered a lot of stops, and I assume it snowballed a little from there, hitting more and more stops as it fell.
If there is a possitive to be found from todays action , it's that the sp finished a fair bit off the bottom, however the volume assiciated with todays drop, suggests it would be better to stay away from it at this stage, we could end up with a similar performance as seen during februrary last year.
I believe local gos in tasmania has been non too positive lately also, still todays washout could have cleared the decks somewhat.
However, I'd like to see something positive before re-entering...
That's only my oppinion though, so dyodd...

Really?! It "snowballed" from 55 to 45 because it hit a few stops? On volume of 40 million shares yesterday and another 20 million before open today? The action in February last year was associated with huge profit downgrades and asset write-offs (then some hedge funds tried to smack it to zero but failed). So now we can see some smoke - is there a fire?

There appear to have been a few hedge funds playing with this stock for a while now so we may find out in the next few days what they have been doing if they are big enough to put in substantial shareholder notices. Or it could have been one of the insto holders bailing.

The big thing for this stock is the pulp mill. If they get funding, GNS is worth much more than 50c. If they don't get funding, it's probably headed for administration as it crumbles under too much debt. When I see action like this it makes me think that someone has the inside running on the pulp mill and is running for the door so I get nervous.

 

[namrog]

Really?! It "snowballed" from 55 to 45 because it hit a few stops? .

Her's a chart then , tell me what you see..

You don't think TA had anything to do with it at all ?

 

[ricee007]

Does anyone know the book value of the Triabunna Mill?

I'm assuming quite low, since they were losing money. But, every couple of million helps.

And, it seems like there were two groups interested in buying.. and it seemed to sell quite quickly?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/11/3241707.htm
Triabunna mill sold
Posted 6 hours 41 minutes ago

Good news, esp. for GNSPA holders

 

[bigricho]

GNS future

Hi is anyone able to put any positive light on this stock? It looks like it must build the pulp mill or go bust. I can't see how they could finance the construction of the mill.
Appreciate any feedback:

 

[notting]

Opened about 17% percent down and is now 25% up

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: GNS future

Hi is anyone able to put any positive light on this stock? It looks like it must build the pulp mill or go bust. I can't see how they could finance the construction of the mill.
Appreciate any feedback:

Judging by media reports, the company either has already, or is in the process of, exiting from just about everything they do other than the pulp mill. As such, GNS has changed from being an established timber company that also makes wine and sells hardware into a speculatvie pulp mill developer with few (no?) actually operating businesses.

Imagine if Qantas announced that they've actually sold all their planes, sacked all their pilots and are aiming to build some luxury hotels instead but thus far haven't actually built anything. That's directly comparable to what GNS is actually doing - abandon basically everything in order to pursue the construction of a single pulp mill.

As for the mill itself, some works are taking place on site and it was reported in the media that some machinery had turned up at the Bell Bay port quite some time ago. But without a source of funds it would seem to be a case of speeding ahead at full steam straight into a brick wall.

I'll believe this pulp mill only when it's not simply being built, but when it's actually built and operating. Over 7 years thus far and all that's really happened is to cut down a few trees on the site (presumably sending them to the existing woodchip mill right next door) and over the past couple of weeks they've pushed a few piles of dirt around with a bulldozer and seem to be building a dam of sorts on the site (looks just like a farm dam, I don't mean a huge concrete dam or anything like that). If they're going to build the mill then they'll need to hurry up somewhat.

 

[ricee007]

I'm surprised at the lack of thoughts on GNSPA on here.

No mention of the recent days events?

I was lucky enough to increase my (small) holdings by over 150% at $33.33, between the 'original' dividend announcement and the 'revised' announcement. That means, I had expected that I had purchased them ex-div, but they will actually be entitled to the $2.6522 dividend on 14th Oct.

I'm willing to move my sell-price around, but, at the moment I've got it around 33% higher than my purchase. I don't mind 'pulling' them off-market and holding them... but if I can make a quick $500 or so, then I won't be complaining either.

Still, considering I purchased at $74.5, I'm still red on these - unless you take into account dividends, then I"m probably in front (but, behind, due to time-value of money).

 

[mrthong]

why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?

 

[Chasero]

why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?

Isn't GNS near bankruptcy until it gets it's mills going?

There's also an article from one of the big brokers advising against holding this stock (I think it was goldman sachs...

 

[So_Cynical]

why is GNS is suffering more compared to the other stocks?

LOL what a sense of humour.

Seriously dude read the announcements.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=GNS

 

[Smurf1976]

Regarding the pulp mill, there are some substantial earth works at the site which have been done. This is clearly visible if you drive south from the roundabout near TEMCO and the aluminium smelter toward the Bell Bay and Tamar Valley power stations. It's basically a huge cleared area, and that's the site for the pulp mill.

Around the site is a fence, actually it's a huge site and a rather long fence. Attached to the fence is a sign to the effect of "private property - keep out" literally every few metres. There's more signs on that fence than white posts beside the road (seriously).

But that's it. Some earth works. I doubt that anyone seriously expects that GNS is actually going to build the mill as they just don't seem able to. At best, they might sell off a "ready to go project" with the land, permits etc to someone else but I can't see them actually building it. It's not as though they've got a couple of $ billion just sitting around or even anyone willing to lend them the money.