GNS - Gunns Limited

[Dutchy3]

Hi Snake

Nup ... took a loss on this one. I use margin so when I'm wrong I'm very wrong.

Only carrying two small long position in this market.

Even reversed up my super a month ago. 90% Aust Property and 10% Aust Shares

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Dutchy are you looking at GNS in the current opportunity?

 

[Dutchy3]

Hi Snake

Sorry for the tardie reply ... nup GNS fell of my radar and I have not had a recent look at it...

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Dutchy,

Old GNS is starting to set up for me. Broker permitting I may take a short position soon.
It has doen well of late though.

Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I took a short position today. Hindsight but I had to execute it first.

The chart is my rationale.

 

[nioka]

Gunns shareholders got a bonus from the election we will have sometime. The government claims to have saved 2000 jobs by approving the development of the Tassie pulp mill. I wonder what would have happened if there was no election looming.

 

[So_Cynical]

Gunns getting down to near 5 and a half year lows...intra day low of 2.47 today
and the mill financing talks continue.....will the mill get up or wont it?

Surly even if the will dont go ahead GNS must be nearing bottom.:dunno:

 

[mitch87]

a recent huntleys report assigns fair value to gns of $1.23, perhaps they are in a small rally that will not last, and fall again, or a move towards $1 likely

 

[samgribbles]

A good announcment on Thursday re GNS being the preferred provider for a new woodchip facility at Portland. Share price didn't budge though. Does anyone with some knowledge of GNS have a view on the announcement?

 

[ricee007]

So, recently bought the debt, GNSPA... I'm very happy with it.

Anyone have any thoughts on GNS or GNSPA?

 

[So_Cynical]

17th-June-2008: Gunns getting down to near 5 and a half year lows...intra day low of 2.47 today and the mill financing talks continue.....will the mill get up or wont it?

Surely even if the mill dont go ahead GNS must be nearing bottom.:dunno:

What the hell was i thinking way back then anyway i figure we are alot closer to botton now with gunns pretty much hitting a near decade low today...so into Gunns today at 0.535.

Still lots to like about this great company going forward.

 

[oldblue]

I agree that GNS looks to be heavily oversold.

But the current slight bounce in the SP may turn out to be just that - a bounce. Why not wait for a bit of strength before buying?

 

[awg]

Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.

 

[oldblue]

Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.

Fair point there, but I reckon the jobs at stake/risk will carry the day in the end.

I don't hold but could be interested at some stage.

 

[So_Cynical]

Gota keep in mind that Gunns are now well and truly the #1 Timber company in Australia....with second place a mile behind.

• #1 in export chips
• #1 in sawn timber and timber products
• #1 in plantation forestry
• Probably #1 in forestry offsets.

Also keep in mind that as far as export chips go, our major competitors (Sth Africa and Brazil) also have commodity driven currency's, and then there's the new market of Biomass opening up...chips to fuel renewable Biomass energy production in Europe and soon other parts of the developed world.

The average Joe has no idea what them plantation trees are really worth.

 

[Smurf1976]

Not a holder, looked at their debt GNSPA, but this company has a bad smell to it imo, real credit risks exist. Many other risks as well, including Greens getting control. Wouldnt take many things to go wrong for this to turn ugly.

Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.

Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).

GNS is absolutely enemy No.1 as far as the Greens are concerned. Anything else seems a very long way down the list in comparisson.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.

A Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).

Who cares? Does this guy really care or does he care more about his own government-feathered parliamentary granted lifestyle?

http://midnorthcoast.nsw.greens.org.au/imagednew/bob-brown-dinner.jpg

A:CAN YOU DIG A DITCH?
B Bob Brown: NO, I'M BEYOND DITCHES.

 

[So_Cynical]

Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.

A Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).

Seriously any green coalition Govt that went about destroying the forestry industry would simply be self destructing, and would be turfed out in the resulting election.

Still sometimes people need to learn the hard way....what do you think the outcome will be Smurf?

_____________________________

Oh and nice to see GNS holding above 0.53

 

[awg]

Let's see what happens with the Tasmanian state election tomorrow in terms of Green / environment issues.

Labor, Liberal or Green majority government seems unlikely according to the opinion polls, leaving the realistic outcomes as either Labor-Green or Liberal-Green to form government (assuming that a Labor-Liberal coalition isn't an option ???).

GNS is absolutely enemy No.1 as far as the Greens are concerned. Anything else seems a very long way down the list in comparisson.

The following scenario is what concerned me.

Greens get balance of power..No Pulp Mill is what they would want.

If this somehow leads to further destabilisation of Gunns SP or other fundamentals, that could lead to credit issues.

If that happens, the ordinary equity holders could be exposed.

Having said that, the business has a product the price is back on the rise, you would think Gunns should be able to make it all work out, but if things go pear shaped, then price has further to fall first.

 

[So_Cynical]

The following scenario is what concerned me.

Greens get balance of power..No Pulp Mill is what they would want.

If this somehow leads to further destabilisation of Gunns SP or other fundamentals, that could lead to credit issues.

If that happens, the ordinary equity holders could be exposed.

Having said that, the business has a product the price is back on the rise, you would think Gunns should be able to make it all work out, but if things go pear shaped, then price has further to fall first.

I've no idea how a business with these numbers could in any way have "credit issues"

Gunns 1st half year 2010

• Market Cap 443 mill (55 cents per share)
• Total revenue 326 mill
• Sawn timber revenue 130 mill, up 20%
• Fibre (chips) 140 mill, up 5.7%
• Plantation MIS 6 mill, down 88.3% (like that's a surprise)
• Other revenue (mitre 10's etc) 59 mill, up 1.6
• Total net debt 661 mill, up 2.8

http://www.gunns.com.au/Content/upl...esentation Half Year Results Announcement.pdf