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Getting feel for SPI open action?
- Thread starter holyGrill
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Ding, also try and look at it from the perspective of fair, over-valued and under-valued. Be aware of S/R,Channels etc, but focus on price.
This is probably extremely obvious but why not trade the laggers then instead? 
Or perhaps mean-reverting pair-trades?
hG
Or perhaps mean-reverting pair-trades?hG
Hate that!
Trembling Hand
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This is probably extremely obvious but why not trade the laggers then instead?
hG
How are you going to know which one will lead today?
How are you going to know which one is going to go its own way today?
No idea, guess you'd have to look at backtesting some patterns of what-follows-what-when-how-often
Not sure how that could be done, mathematically even ... regression analysis ? Can lead-lag relationships be determined by phase-shifting one price series or a this-one-moved-first-then-this-one-moved-in-same-dir sort of analysis ... i'm sure there must be a more formal definition for it (causality?) but yeah, support/resistance is probably easier he he ...
Ok so i took a 'punt' today, based on a channel breakout and got a little lucky, made 2.5 tics profit [not counting the 2ticks spread cross - good article TH on 'free CFDs' and the real cost of trading CFDs. Cant wait to scrape enough cash together for an IB account featuring DOM!
For now, my little IG account will have to do ...
Wondering if this trade was pure luck or is this a reasonable method (i've read alot about breakouts)- anyone else look at this breakout?
cheers,
hG
For now, my little IG account will have to do ...
Wondering if this trade was pure luck or is this a reasonable method (i've read alot about breakouts)- anyone else look at this breakout?
cheers,
hG
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Trembling Hand
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Was your plan to take 2.5 ticks based on anything other than closing out the trade just cuz it got into profit?
Was it based on a reasonable R:R?
If not NO
to be honest i saw the $12.50 profit, nearly creamed myself and took the profit! lol no profit target or anything, just A profit was the target I guess.
Well, the risk is $25 since I use a 5point stop. This in effect is only a 3pt-stop though since the cross adds another 2 points (the moment I place the trade I'm 2 points down). I know this doesn't leave much room for movement against me and unless the trade goes my way immediately I'll get stopped out (at a $25 loss!) But then again using a larger stop will reduce my Reward/Risk even more ... not sure what to do here - set a higher profit target? but if it dont get hit, gonna throw profits away by not taking them ...
its quite expensive to be testing this manually with real $ tho ... what the optimal profit-target would be ... perhaps a simple trailing stop's the way lol
hG
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fully agree. So I wait to hit $25 profit instead, that way at least I have R:R of 1 [easier said than done I think, will give it a try tho]. Need a simulator or something to test these [unless someone can suggest an algorithm for identifying channels...hmmm]
[easier said than done I think, will give it a try tho]. Need a simulator or something to test these [unless someone can suggest an algorithm for identifying channels...hmmm]
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fully agree. So I wait to hit $25 profit instead, that way at least I have R:R of 1
Even if you can achieve a win rate of 50% (very difficult, especially for a new trader), you are going to be at break even at best.
My advice: Wait to $25 profit, put your stop loss at break even, then go out for a jog or something
Ok so I've managed to nicely hemorrhage about 100bucks in 4 trades.
I started getting a big head after 4 winners in a row. What a way to bring me back down to earth!
Gotta be more disciplined and stick to the break-even stop-loss (thanks beamstas!). Finally got the trailing stop working on IG's puredeal (even though I have to manually activate it each time in settings, so annoying).
Happy future trades today chaps ...
hG
I started getting a big head after 4 winners in a row. What a way to bring me back down to earth!
Gotta be more disciplined and stick to the break-even stop-loss (thanks beamstas!). Finally got the trailing stop working on IG's puredeal (even though I have to manually activate it each time in settings, so annoying).
Happy future trades today chaps ...
hG
Even if you can achieve a win rate of 50% (very difficult, especially for a new trader), you are going to be at break even at best.
My advice: Wait to $25 profit, put your stop loss at break even, then go out for a jog or something
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imo its a lot harder to scalp with IG. Personally I think position trading is fine with them, scalping is just way too hard.
In the live market, you can weasel your way into a trade (ie let someone fill you) so you start off brkeven, or hit market (pay 1 tick spread).
That 2 tick spread is gonna cost dearly sooner or later.
In the live market, you can weasel your way into a trade (ie let someone fill you) so you start off brkeven, or hit market (pay 1 tick spread).
That 2 tick spread is gonna cost dearly sooner or later.
Trembling Hand
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Yep. Its a shame most start out in the wrong instrument trying the wrong strategies without the right understanding of what makes a trade profitable.
anything less than 20 tick target trading cfds ya gonna struggle. IMNSHO
20-tick target - that's pretty big.
Not having DOM and with an extra tick spread in and out I'm starting to realize how hard it is to make $$ with Aussie200 $5mini CFDs.
I'd still like to try some breakouts through-out the day though, with some larger profit targets.
If making money with the Aussie200 cfds means IG is losing $ (if they take the other side) that's all the more incentive to make $ he he
if you had to say TH, what would be your NSHO on strategies for disadvantaged, disillusioned CFD-traders like myself attempting 20tick targets? I'll be sticking to breakouts for now, they're pretty straightforward he he.
hG
Not having DOM and with an extra tick spread in and out I'm starting to realize how hard it is to make $$ with Aussie200 $5mini CFDs.
I'd still like to try some breakouts through-out the day though, with some larger profit targets.
If making money with the Aussie200 cfds means IG is losing $ (if they take the other side) that's all the more incentive to make $ he he
if you had to say TH, what would be your NSHO on strategies for disadvantaged, disillusioned CFD-traders like myself attempting 20tick targets? I'll be sticking to breakouts for now, they're pretty straightforward he he.
hG
Trembling Hand
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20-tick target - that's pretty big.
Not having DOM and with an extra tick spread in and out I'm starting to realize how hard it is to make $$ with Aussie200 $5mini CFDs.
I'd still like to try some breakouts through-out the day though, with some larger profit targets.
If making money with the Aussie200 cfds means IG is losing $ (if they take the other side) that's all the more incentive to make $ he he
if you had to say TH, what would be your NSHO on strategies for disadvantaged, disillusioned CFD-traders like myself attempting 20tick targets? I'll be sticking to breakouts for now, they're pretty straightforward he he.
hG
Actually I think scalping is the worst place to start. Could you tell my why you are? Why would you not be trying to trade 20 -40 tick targets.
As for breakouts on an intraday basis. I sit in front of the screens all day and rarely see them. Whats your read/stats/backtest on such events occurring?
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Actually I think scalping is the worst place to start. Could you tell my why you are? Why would you not be trying to trade 20 -40 tick targets.
As for breakouts on an intraday basis. I sit in front of the screens all day and rarely see them. Whats your read/stats/backtest on such events occurring?
True
It is very hard to find intra-day breakouts like you would see on a traditional EOD chart for a stock
I've managed to pinpoint one today
The more screen time im getting the more im coming to realise what TH has just said
unfortunately I dont have any read(?)/stats/backtesting results on these events. I read somewhere on here or eliteTrader (cant remember which) that the aussie200 follows S/R like a glove which I guess somehow I equated this with breakouts (by definition if the S/R channel is broken, this means breakout is occurring?)
And then it worked for me, once (and i got a warm fluffy feeling inside like I've discovered gold . but the warmth only lasted until my next ever-so-disappointing breakout LOSS of $25 :-(
Will take your word for it that they don't occur very often. I cant really afford to test the theory for much longer - not with real $ anyway.
I can't think of any high-probability scenario that'll push the market 20 - 40 pts ... unless a pre-open (< 7am) can be entered but so much scope for news to come out in the meantime ... risky risky risky i've gotten burnt a couple of times (too much warmth)
hG
And then it worked for me, once
(and i got a warm fluffy feeling inside like I've discovered gold . but the warmth only lasted until my next ever-so-disappointing breakout LOSS of $25 :-( Will take your word for it that they don't occur very often. I cant really afford to test the theory for much longer - not with real $ anyway.
I can't think of any high-probability scenario that'll push the market 20 - 40 pts ... unless a pre-open (< 7am) can be entered but so much scope for news to come out in the meantime ... risky risky risky i've gotten burnt a couple of times (too much warmth)
hG
Actually I think scalping is the worst place to start. Could you tell my why you are? Why would you not be trying to trade 20 -40 tick targets.
As for breakouts on an intraday basis. I sit in front of the screens all day and rarely see them. Whats your read/stats/backtest on such events occurring?
Why don't you trade with mini contracts on IG? You could start with 0.1 of a mini so you are not losing so much $$ to start off with. You won't make much per tick, but it may help with setting stops, testing and getting used to 'holding'.
0.1 of a mini? How do I enable this on IG? I thought $5/pt was the smallest one could trade ... ?
(i use the web-based PureDeal btw - that what you're using?)
sounds like a good idea!
(i use the web-based PureDeal btw - that what you're using?)
sounds like a good idea!
