GDN - Golden State Resources

Dazt

Hey come tell us who your sources are, go on itll be just between you and me and sharemadder, honest, but in all seriousess, that makes you an insider LOL LOL LOL ( i have to add the LOL cos last tiime i said that some guy took it really bad thought i was seriously suggesting he was guilty of insider trading)

I have only recenlt traded GDN for the first time, 13c - 22c - yes i wish i held, and now am not sure if it will fall over or keep going and wild estimates like $3 for an IPO post lisiting dont help!! hehe, if that were really true surely the lister would endevour to capture some of that value before at the offer stage, but the reason why sold is i have thought that GDN gets traded in very odd and sus ways, i think it is just unfortunate that it gets famous with day traders and there share registry is so loosly held, but it does suffer from strange manipulations it doesnteven have to be insiders, just a few tradersget together and decide they are going to work a stock, GDN sems to be a goodone for that kind of thing

ok bye

Thanks Datz49

A Private Message via ASF is ok if you get some info. Minor dip then buy again later today??? Shame to see drop after stella volume churns at 30c+

sharemadder,
Its just trading normally ie up sometimes ,down sometimes, sideways sometimes.
Long as the total of the up sometimes is greater than the total of the down sometimes...we can get sideways at the pub at the end of the week.
Seriously, I reckon there could be a few days of consolidation (sideways)before another move.
By the way,toc just had a message pulled.
Good morning moderators.

Toc,
Good to see you back.
I think if you try and base your trade on the wisdom on these type of threads
you are gunna get seriously burnt..or make a fortune lol
We are just trying to gather as much info/gossip as we can to fill in the time between GDN's anns lol

Well Daz it worked for me... bought 15/8/07 for 0.12, sold 29/08/07 0.30.. have to have a win occasionally though!!

somesort,
good on you, you can have a relaxing weekend, not thinking about bloody GDN lol
My patience WILL be rewarded.
cheers

dat.

why didnt you sell out at .34 and wait till it gets back to .10 and buy in again? i am just curious why you didnt join the pump and dump?

Hi Toc Bat,
Well you upset my weekend somewhat!! Not really! (Joke)
I couldn't find my meandering calcs in my old pad so I set off afresh.Here's an outline.
The AU$2.00 came from an extrapolation, acreage, 2,703 ha, should give 300,000 tons (my first minor mistake, I used imperial tons but these were US tons), at 0.3% which is a little over 6lbs per ton, the spot price, now lower (today US$90.00 per lb but note that Tom Albanese (Rio ceo) is very bullish, recently affirmed his company's intention to look for opportunities to double their U buisness, ) suggests a base value the JV. Where the rub comes is how many shares? I shall not bore you with my machinations, but I came up with 125,000,000. There is an immediate deductable for the two leases, Daneros and Geitus of US$10,000. Furthermore there will be a 15% deducted from income for previous lease owner. BUT, never the less, this should give exposure to a much larger advanced project (we were told) and it is all going to take place in a supportive jurisdiction. And anyway after you've acquired your JV share out you still have Paradox Basin # 2 to be drilled in a very sexy position based on the extensive information gleaned from PB # 1. Can't be bad can it?...
Today I would like to suggest a conservative AU$1.65.for a JV share subsequent to the IPO.
I rest my case (for what it's worth) have a nice weekend.

agentm,
I am an investor, not a trader. My 'bank' is not large enough for me to take any quicky trades, tho I would like to sometimes.
Long haul for me, at least till some results from Para 2.
Things could change of course..

Morning Datz49

Trust you enjoyed a few coldies yesterday at the pub.

JH hasn't replied yet to my email regarding testing the oil column.

Been very interesting week. I do hope we start to get some good information next week not just on Para#1 but also on the U spin off entitlement.

Very good resistance at 25 to 27c range yesterday afternoon. I think it will bounce up on Monday probably back to 30c even with good volume. The DOW up is encouraging for ASX on Monday.

Did you get hold of your contact

Cheers

sm,
yep , had a few coldies with'the boys' but have to put in a few hours work this am.
The close at 25c last night was ok, could have slipped further.
No contact with 007 at this stage.
Going up for a coffee.
cheers
daz

Hi,

Today i went through the trade analysis for the last 5 days for gdn and put in a table of the volume at each of the prices over the 5 days. The highest volume at one price over the last 5 days was at 33 cents with 33,405,974 shares traded over 3 days which was the highest volume for any price interval in the last 5 days. Anyone that bought at that price would of had to sell at either 33.5 or 34 cents since for every buyer that bought shares at 33 cents the total of volume of 33.5 and 34 was equal to 33,780,897 shares. If all this volume over the last 5 days really was just traders like it has been said many times on another forum, there was very little profit for any buyers that bought in the 30s which is where most of the volume was.

the total volume between 29 and 34.5 cents in the last 5 days was 189,672,543 shares. With that type of volume if its all day traders they wernt making much profit for all the people buying in the 30s and since most of the volume was in the 30s over the last 5 days it would suggest that most traders either made a slight profit, broke even or had lost during the week. Just these volumes got up to the 30s pretty quickly on a lot lower volume and buyers continued to keep buying in the low 30s.

The high volumes didnt start until the price was 29 upto 29 cents the highest volume at a single price was 4,819,846 shares traded at 22cents the rest of the price levels never went above 5 million shares until 29 cents.

If it is traders why didnt they do this when it was at 10 cents or the few weeks it was trading at 15-20 cents why did it start this week and push the share price up over 200%?

Just the volumes dont make much sense to be so high in the 30s when every seller needs a buyer and for the volume to be as high as it has been means there is a lot of buyers around willing to pay 30 cents for the shares. There will be many who made large profits but the buyers in the 30's wouldnt have made much of a profit and thats the part that is interesting to look at after seeing the volumes at those prices.

On the delta petroleum website they have a presentation which has a few slides of the exploration and development projects they have in the paradox basin which is mentioned to be all above 100bcf prospects but on the headings of the development and exploration potential they suggest the projects that delta has and not meaning paradox basin but all their projects have potential to be tcf size projects. That isnt a ramp thats just what is said in the presentation for august 2007.

A question i do have while take over ideas have been mentioned is if a company like delta wanted to gain a large share holding of a company but without going over the 5% to show they have been buying can they use all their subsidiaries to each buy 4.5% but since all owned by delta it would mean delta could have a large control over a company? Delta has 8 Subsidiaries plus delta petroleum if each of the 9 companies were to get 4.5% of a company such as gdn then that would mean they could hold 40% of a company without actually legally having an obligation to submit a substantial holding notice?

Im not saying they have even looked at gdn other then drilling the well through the dhs drilling company delta owns but is it possible for a company to use the subsidiaries to gain control of a company or since it all goes back to one company they are still obligated to make a substantial shareholding notice to shareholders?

Thanks any thoughts would be appreciated.

NT1984

I don't think it was all traders. I think there has been some company buying heaps but until we see a notice we wont know. I don't think they would try and hide their holding either so if it was Delta, Eclipse, White Canyon, other affiliates such as Shumways or other co or person I'm sure they would of pretty much bought what they wanted and happy to state so to. Your also right on the volume theory as well. I don't think it is a take over but just a large stake buy probably for the U spin off entitlement and the upside for Para#2. Next week hopefully the co will announce something of substance about both. The mentioned forum you say stinks for trying to have a reasonable objective conversation as when GDN or any other company for that matter goes down / up the leaches arrive to stir up the conversation. Cheers.

Hi NT,

Thanks for your post, interesting read on volumes and price. As for subsidiaries of Delta buying up GDN, I think they would have to report it to the ASX, as if you note with other companies on the ASX, some of the substantial holdings breakdowns have several companies/trusts listed on the notice, so I would assume it would be the same for Delta aswell.

I have a feeling that we wont get final results for Para 1 till early next week.
Guess that means the Sp will drift downwards, which is disappointing.

Hi DAZT,
Maybe! You are usually right. But the last three anns went like this.
Aug 07 a Tues. eight days to Aug 15 a Wed. then twelve days to Aug 27 a Mon. Add minimum eight days. That would be Sep 04 a Tues. Average of M,T and W is Tue. But average of 8 and 12 is 10. Wow! Thursday!

shanty,
And Thursday is.........PAYDAY!!
Seriously..if you count up the number of anns, and allocate a day for each ann (ie Mon, Tues etc) and divide the number of odd days ie Tues, Thurs, by the even days ie Mon Wed Fri you get....
0.9 which is the some of all the gas to this point ie 0.9mmcf/d.
How freaky is that. lol

Hi Datz49

No ann today you think. Maybe see bounce today on the SP

Anyway the two things Im hanging out for are the U entitlement prospectus (thats taking long time to come out) and the permit for Para#2 (thats taking for ever).

If it bounces then it will be bullish sign on the charts if not then bearish until a decent announcement comes out.

Cheers

sm,
A couple of posts ago I said early next week..If you catch my drift.
Cant see that the price is going to do much but drift backwards, tho if word gets out that the ann is good it will climb.
As you say, plenty of upside to look forward to with Para 1 results/Para 2 soon/ U spinoff/iron ore/gold/frankincense/mirr.

An interesting opening building now...could be a green day...waiting waiting for an announcement, any announcement.