GDN - Golden State Resources

[DAZT49]

Guess we are all hanging out for that report.
Dont forget the U equation too.
The ann of 3rdMay....
'An indicative timetable for due diligence investigations, fund raising and listing will be released within two weeks.'
Well..2 weeks is up..nearly.

 

[chance fate]

... not sure now that it'll be 'within 2 weeks' ... that's what was announced re. the uranium spin off and an announcement on its respective forward timing on 3 May... it's now the 18th and no sign of an announcement on that... the heart's going to be pounding when the announcement flag comes up... and the way thigns have gone it'll be the U announcement and we'll be kept in suspense on the test results... getting frustrated and impatient ....what a stock....:viking:

 

[DAZT49]

Still nightime in the US. Ann will probably come after trading closes here..maybe..perhaps.
You are right.. this stock is driving me crazy.
Almost drive a guy to drink.

 

[chance fate]

...I gave up smoking a while back... but temptation got the better of me today...cigars!!... it's back to 9-5 for me if this doesn't come through... took a few months off ... luckily the job market here in Perth means i can walk into something within a few days... build up some more cash and get into Nexus asap and Karoon towards the end of the year...

 

[chance fate]

... was doing some rough calcs using a spreadsheet i used to use when i did exploration econs for a well known co. here in town... on potential sp v's resource size and with US$4/GJ (conservative)... looks healthy even with 50bcf: here's the numbers (dyor!)

12km² area:
10m reservoir thickness = 0.075Tcf = $1.50
20m reservoir thickness = 0.15 Tcf = $3.00 etc..

16km² area:
10m reservoir thickness = 0.1Tcf = $2.00
20m reservoir thickness = 0.2 Tcf = $4.00 etc..

at US$8/GJ double these SP's...

there's a significant uncertainty in my mind as to the boundary of the pensylvannian levels.. the mapping shows an area up to 16km²... however this is based on the assumption that the well penetrated the boundary of the reserves. It certainly penerated reservoir (barker creek was a pressurised interval if i remember rightly) - it could be bigger as the gas water contact hasn't been established in these upper levels - and it looks like (from gdn seismic interpretation) a large structural trap - this is why i'm holding on...... having said all that it could be nothing!

 

[DAZT49]

Funnily enough I was planning to take a few months when another stock (BMN) hit a mark and GDN were going to be sailing off into the $4--$5--$10 $?? So I was GUNNA quit the 9 to 5er (well * to 8 to 5er) and just trade some CFD's for petrol money.... and.. have a cigar!!
Wooops

 

[Haveacrack]

Yep.....it seems we're all paddling the same boat - let's hope it's not the one that ends up up the creek without a paddle.

I have to say i have been doing this for quite some time now and GDN without doudt has been one of the most frustrating holds i have encountered for some time. Saying that i'm in it for the long haul now and feel there is still substanial upside considering gas prices at present and estimates. If these prices hold and i have no doubt they will, and should they get there 50BCF we should see a healthy rise in the SP. There reports state they have begun the wells comlpletion process and negotiating a pipeline lease so its obvious they intend to retrieve something from the well - the question on everybodies lips is HOW MUCH? -

Let's hope its better than 50BCF so we can all get some sleep.

 

[hoppielimp]

We are all hoping now that the time is drawing near it has been a long wait.

With your ref to a pipeline Haveacrack, I agree... in the inital prospectus I think it mentioned that a minimum of 50bcf would be economical. Back then gas was down near US$4...

Now that gas is creeping close to double that...possibly that 30bcf would be economical. If the statement was true that a minimum quantity would be required to be economical it would make sense that you don't apply for a pipeling permit for something that wasn't economical...

I hope there is some logic in my argument...

 

[Wysiwyg]

We are all hoping now that the time is drawing near it has been a long wait.

With your ref to a pipeline Haveacrack, I agree... in the inital prospectus I think it mentioned that a minimum of 50bcf would be economical. Back then gas was down near US$4...

Now that gas is creeping close to double that...possibly that 30bcf would be economical. If the statement was true that a minimum quantity would be required to be economical it would make sense that you don't apply for a pipeling permit for something that wasn't economical...

I hope there is some logic in my argument...

Wuth your reference to economical hoppielimp .... the company (shareholders) has forked out over 10 million dollars for this well.If the well is not economical then major gas shows in two of the nine sniffs would be considered a misleading statement.Look at other oiler e.p. reports....do they ramp a gas show like this company does?99.9% commercial i.m.o.

 

[Haveacrack]

We are all hoping now that the time is drawing near it has been a long wait.

With your ref to a pipeline Haveacrack, I agree... in the inital prospectus I think it mentioned that a minimum of 50bcf would be economical. Back then gas was down near US$4...

Now that gas is creeping close to double that...possibly that 30bcf would be economical. If the statement was true that a minimum quantity would be required to be economical it would make sense that you don't apply for a pipeling permit for something that wasn't economical...

I hope there is some logic in my argument...

All the fundamentals still appear to be somewhat positive and GDN continues to spend money on the project, they wouldn't be spending for nothing....right!!!

Now we must wait for the full assessment of the wells production capacity of reported gas shows following testing, which is now due today according to there ann. on 7 may. We should expect news any time time and if its positive re BCF levels - enjoy the ride!!!

 

[DAZT49]

Another heart pumping stress inducing NON ann!!!
Why not wait till they have something to say?
More faulty equipment...where do they get there gear from...Tools R Us!!
Sorry boys ..must assume lotus position....breath in..breath out..

 

[chance fate]

... yeah .... a pretty bad absense of luck ... a bit of meditation ... a good stiff drink... and several days away from the screen needed .... reckon if you can survive this without jumping out a window you can survive the 2nd well they're going to drill!!!....

 

[DAZT49]

I think there are 40 wells planned (isn't there?).better stock up on the Valium and VB...and keep some champers somewhere, just in case.

 

[rosesny_1]

Re: GDN - Golden State Resources announcement

My reading of the current announcement is that whatever flow GDN found in the Pinkerton Trail was insufficient to declare commercial (since its limestone and shale it may need to be frac'ed in order to flow commercially) and that whatever they found in the Alkali Gulch was not sufficient of itself. Otherwise IMHO they would have said something more direct. The Barker Creek however is sandstone and dolomitic sandstone and the next zone to be perforated is the lower 12 feet of this pay which is over-pressured so the next announcement should say "commercial" or it's equivalent. Then GDN can add whatever they get from the other zones to give us a first number for this well and an estimate for the structure it's on. I'm not surprised by the delayed testing. I believe 2 weeks was not enough time to flow test this well in five or six intervals. I think we'll have our answer within a week or two from now.

 

[the barry]

I know the options expire in june, but does anyone know on what date they expire? How long after they expire have you got to redeem them to shares, or does it have to be before the date they expire?

 

[DAZT49]

Thanks for that post rosesny_1. If you are correct, the 50BCF we would all like to hear about seems a bit of the mark.

 

[Broadside]

Re: GDN - Golden State Resources announcement

My reading of the current announcement is that whatever flow GDN found in the Pinkerton Trail was insufficient to declare commercial (since its limestone and shale it may need to be frac'ed in order to flow commercially) and that whatever they found in the Alkali Gulch was not sufficient of itself. Otherwise IMHO they would have said something more direct. The Barker Creek however is sandstone and dolomitic sandstone and the next zone to be perforated is the lower 12 feet of this pay which is over-pressured so the next announcement should say "commercial" or it's equivalent. Then GDN can add whatever they get from the other zones to give us a first number for this well and an estimate for the structure it's on. I'm not surprised by the delayed testing. I believe 2 weeks was not enough time to flow test this well in five or six intervals. I think we'll have our answer within a week or two from now.

the company has either dug a hole for itself, or later shareholders, through its early announcements, Oct 27 as an example: "At this stage, from formation pressures and the amount of gas bleeding into the well, it is likely that production will be obtained from the Upper Ismay, Akah and Barker Creek members that have already been drilled..."

Upper Ismay was 9800 feet, Akah show was at 10,528 feet and Barker creek 11,016 feet.

Now today they talk of perforating at depth 12,560 feet within 30 hours....do we now assume there is no price sensitive news on the earlier shows?? do they not have an obligation to report their findings thus far? after all they are now already past the zones they earlier indicated as likely to produce....

This built expectations very high and the shares have been on a very volatile roller coaster ever since, a lot of people have been burned unnecessarily through such premature statements. Now it may or may not be commercial but the company has handled their news releases poorly.

 

[DAZT49]

expire on June 30 Bazza.
I cashed mine in and bought shares at $1.10..do you reckon I am happy?
Well I sort of am, because of leverage the option price was pretty good so I was able to get more shares.

 

[rosesny_1]

Completions are done from the bottom of the hole to the top with the lower zones being temporarily plugged as they perforate the next higher zone. They should now know about the deeper two zones but not the shallower upper zones.

 

[Broadside]

you are dead right rosesny_1 , my mistake, not withstanding they test from bottom and work their way upwards, they still would have already been through regions with gas shows so I am surprised they choose to release all news after completion rather than incrementally. Creates potential for some market players to have inside knowledge - potential, that is. And I maintain they have not managed investor expectations well since their super bullish pronouncements in October / November.

Anyway, good luck I hope it is commercial for holders.