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GDN - Golden State Resources

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tech/a said:
Technically.

If you bought today then the stop is at 42c and the gap is likely to close in the next 2 days. I would expect trading to re bound to around 75c
So do the risk maths from there.---then flat unless news.
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I agree tech/a i say 75c also

As long as they stop their announcements their shares might go alright
 
Gap will act as resistance.
If the low is taken out and the gap is NOT filled then this is in serious trouble.
If it is partially filled and returns to the low then it is also unlikely to perform.
Gap needs to close soon for this to have upside.
 

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maverick11 said:
5-10% porosity is actually quite good. Typically porosity is closer to 3-4%
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Interesting. I've always thought that 5% would be considered rather tight. Happy to be proven wrong. Are you able to give me the names of wells that have been producing for a while with these kinds of porosities in the region?

For purposes of comparison, NW Shelf appears to have 15-25%+ porosity, drills in the Perth Basin producing gas have porosity of 8-32% and in the Cooper, 10-30%.
 
For all those people who sold out this morning and havent slashed your wrists, the stocks still at a big discount from yesterday!
My attempt at showing a little sympathy
 
I'm not willing to take a loss yet. I'm still holding.

Made my stomach cringe this morning..but I held firm. I still think they have potential.
 
N tech..I did have a profit. was reasonable too. Maybe I just analysed everything To the best I possibly could and I thought they would keep going...thats why I didnt sell. I still want to see what they have so i'll wait it out.
 
chris1983 said:
Maybe I just analysed everything To the best I possibly could
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I'm looking at my napkin-valuation for GDN based on different reserves at this drill in light of mav's comment. Just out of interest, what valuation did you come up with?
 
chris1983 said:
I'm not willing to take a loss yet. I'm still holding.

Made my stomach cringe this morning..but I held firm. I still think they have potential.
Click to expand...

well done chris ....its not easy
smart move
 
I pretty much thought they had a good chance of confirming 50bcf...I still do..thats why I didnt sell this morning in the low 40's. Based off all the reading..reading through their reports etc etc. They valued that from $1-1.50. This is taken from the CK Locke report

"GDN consultants anticipate a high level of success in the first well with anticipated 80% success in achieving a minimum case of 50 BCF. 50 BCF is potentially economic."

I read Analyst's report - StockAnalysis and Analyst's report - CK Locke plus other articles. I thought they were definately worth a go. Thing is I know of people calling the director in Utah and he believes it to be commercial even without Leadville. Question is why hasnt this been announced in asx reports. Many questions..but Im sticking with them.
 
Well depth and rock type has a lot to do with it. Most US deep wells are nowhere near the values you quoted for the aussie examples.

Here's some textbook info, but these don't take into account pressures and hydrocarbons, etc:

Quartzite 0.1 - 0.5%
Dolerite 0.1 - 0.5%
Granite 0.5 - 1.5%
Sandstone 5.0 - 25.0%
Shale 10 - 30%
Limestone 5 - 20%
Dolomite 1 - 5%

25% in sandstone and 30% in shale is EXTREME particularly under the pressures they are experiencing several km's underground. To get approx 10% on ADI's sugarloaf well in the primary would be mindblowing, but possible for example
 
holding firm could be a runner on the way home.
ive bought and sold this 4 times today! 3w 1L up 764
 
hi constable, on the same token it could also be a loser, as people may not want to hold something so volatile overnight? just some thoughts.
 
Caliente said:
hi constable, on the same token it could also be a loser, as people may not want to hold something so volatile overnight? just some thoughts.
Click to expand...
Yes i guess there was a little apprehension but plenty of volume down the buyers side. Tipping it wont capitulate again tommorow as everyones had a chance to bail today. The fact that bargain hunters showed plenty of interest today coupled with the fact that the only sellers at this price would be the people that picked it off today could result in a volume squeeze tommorow. I spose the fact that it still could be a commercial discovery may help it rebound off today as well ! I picked up 30k at the close and look forward to the open tommorow - still prepared to sit on these evenif it goes pear shaped.
 
On all available info - including what the directors have to say - I believe it is likely to gap up in the morning providing they learn to put the anns in simpler language for the large volume of followers they have 'acquired'.
Will be interesting to see how much depth they can get through in the 24hours from this morning.
The drill was scheduled to start again at 12 - but not sure if that's 12 midnight Utah - or 12 midday ASX. Need email clarification of that one.

Certainly looks oversold to me now - mainly because of lack of understanding, therefore a good clarifying ann could see it fill that gap back up in tech/a's post (I think it was tech?)
Interesting week ahead.
I hold.
 
Hi Canny,

How clear is your understanding of their message? I know this part of the message sounds positive.

"Gross sand over the log interval is approximately 860’ (247 m) with 69’ (21 m) of net gas saturated dolomitic sandstone with additional gas potential possible."

Im no gas or oil expert. Definately hard to fully understand the message. I know about uranium/copper and nickel grades thats about it
 
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