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Tech you haven't answered my question. What is conventional tech analysis?
What's the conventional tech analysis?
Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?Tech you haven't answered my question. What is conventional tech analysis?
Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?
Anyone? Should I ignore myself too?
Hi Margaret,
Hope you are well. Interesting to read your perspective on this.
I tend to agree with your assessment on some of these courses. The experience you had in getting some benefit in projecting while finding it difficult to actually trade from effectively seems a common complaint. I suspect part of the problem is that students of these courses are only given pieces of the puzzle and minimal help integrating the ideas into a usable coherent approach.
As for the link above, respectfully I met this guy, and I really don't think he knows much (nice guy, but a practitioner???). He certainly didn't seem to have much to say when he was promoting the Kuppe lecture which I thought was a monumental waste of time. Put it this way, this approach wouldn't be something I'd recommend (for what my opinion's worth).
Again, I'd say McLaren's work is the exception. There are also people out there prepared to help others to get their heads around these concepts. I found getting a trading group together of people keen on sharing ideas worked very well. (By the way, Bunyip mentioned he didn't have an affiliation with McLaren, and either do I for the record, just so that's clear.)
This idea of "pressure points" I suspect is a SITM creation. I agree with the criticism laid out that many of these don't really amount to much when viewed in a one dimensional uninformed way. Some dates are relevant and other's aren't. That's because they are being viewed in isolation without reference to the pattern of trend. In my view working without the critical pieces of the puzzle is like trying to fly a plane with key components missing (like the engine for example).
Time cycle analysis works very differently. Yes the concept of division of the range (price) works in fractions (eights and thirds) like many people use this kind of extension/retracement tool. Time while having similarities to the price range is more complex because you're adding a whole dimension/paradigm of thinking into the mix because it involves both the relationship to price and to pattern (at least the way I do it). What does this mean? It means you need to be able to perceive markets in a multi dimensional way - I look at the pattern first, then time, then price in that order (although this is not necessarily always the case, there are some situations where price can be of primary interest). McLaren's time factor work I found was a good starting point.
Note that there can be multiple cycles running concurrently (this makes things messy sometimes if you don't understand and recognize this). Also, the pattern of trend tells you a lot about what is going on. Also you need to look in multiple time frames (daily charts, weekly, monthly) to understand the different trends active at the same time - a move in one time frame (e.g. Daily) is the dominant trend, while in another (e.g. Monthly) it is a counter trend. This is critical in my view. Also wave theory can be very helpful here too.
There can also be harmonic cycles running concurrently in the same time frame (daily/weekly/monthly). This can also become confusing if you aren't aware of it. If you perceive these, then the whole process of determining probabilities and trades becomes much simpler.
Also, just because you hit a key date in a cycle you have identified does not mean that trend is over and a reversal will occur (and you can be wrong when you do this on several fronts - which cycle, determination of where it is in the cycle, placement of key points in the cycle, missing other cycles running concurrently, different cycles in other time frames, and this is off the top of my head, there are many more).
When you hit a key time and price (if you're projection is valid enough you hit these), you can get extensions to a cycle or a retracement for a specific increment (like the division of the range in price into eights and thirds, same for a time period, but it is not that simple - there are multiple inputs to determine when and how to do this). Also, sometimes the market trends to the cent or date, but sometimes it can be out by a margin - this is common, and there are reasons for this.
How markets trade into "key dates" (assuming your analysis is valid) tells you a lot about the trend. What we're trying to do is to constantly assess the risk to our trade, and determine when the trend is at risk. This is so we know when to take partial profits to ensure winning trades don't become losing trades. How you take profits can vary widely. Me, I have a range of alternatives. Full exit, partial exit (e.g. half, one third for less risky trades, two thirds for more risky trades), or hedging (diagonal ratio back spread, direct sale in a different strike but same expiry, mix of futures and options in multiple time frames and ratios etc).
So once you've hit a time/price point, this is a point to assess what to do. Some are where key reversals occur, some are continuation points, some result in brief counter trends. Some are minor in the cycle you are looking at, others are major. But it is the pattern of trend that is critical. This must be viewed in the context of the pattern and the aggregate of all the cycles that are active in multiple time frames, and any harmonic cycles that are active. This is multi-dimensional unlike other approaches, hence it must be contextual. This is where most people flounder. In my view trying to use this kind of approach without understanding this is like flying blind.
Hope this helps
Mag
Here you go Sails.
All about Ganns square of nine.
http://www.tradingfives.com/store/so9book.html
Even better than using a pencil and ruler here is a calculator.
My $6,000 bill is in the mail.
http://www.xmlworks.com/gann/javascript/
Sorry I didnt see it initially not ignoring you.
How could I!
Conventional Analysis
Oscillators. Pretty well most of those which come with the standard software packages like Metastock.
The stuff most people clog up their charts with.
Yu know the ones all crap no price action.
Ah Tech, I thought you had taken my question the wrong way, thanks for your response. Tradeguider has some of those conventional indicators too. As you know any indicator will be of value as long as price itself is taken into account.
Cheers..
Snake.
Your presuming I'm using tradeguider in a conventional manner.
I will add that I have used "Canned" indicators in systems testing but very rarely. T/T has one an EMA.
But for discretionary trading not a one.
Thanks for the links Tech - although think I've paid my dues for Gann courses - always seem to get short changed...
Actually, a simple google search has a bit of info on it as well. Found this article by Jason Sidney - he was on the staff of SITM a few years ago before it was bought out by Hubb. http://www.marketinsight.com.au/articles/article.php?name=Ganns_Square_of_Nine
EW is an indicator
There has to be Five waves etc
Harriman would today use his money
to create five wave corrective patterns
and three wave impulsive
That is how he made it...
Taking advantage of all such indicators
even if he did not know them
He would still use the liquidity they generated
Harriman was one of the original models for smart money
( $700,000,000 mil per year in 1907 )
eg
It was he that said what you could not sell at $150 ( stock selling at $150)
you could sell if you put it up to $180 first and then sell as much as you want all the way back down to a $150
motorway
Dont disagree.
Anything that we use AS an indicator could be classified as one.
But my comment was to common indicators and Id hardly call E/W and P&F (As a second example,not that I use it) common.
Hi Margaret,Hi Magdoran,
Yes, keeping well, thanks. Trust you are well on your way to recovery.
Thanks for the in depth reply - and I do agree with your views. I haven't seen or spoken with David for quite a while now, nor have I heard him actually speak on the subject of Gann, so your assessment may very well be right. And I did explain in a later post (I think to Bunyip), that McLaren's DVDs would actually be the first choice for more education on the subject of time. I have thoroughly enjoyed McLaren's ebook and really like the fact there is so little waffle and he gets straight to the nuts and bolts.
Probably, what prompted my post about looking further into David's course is that I have always wanted to understand how to use the square of nine. Recently, someone was asking about historical, intraday SPI data and I remembered Adest used to have it. I then noticed the subject list for David's Gann course which included so many of the areas I missed out on. A few years ago, we paid $500 for me to go to a half day seminar and the main reason was that the Square of Nine was advertised as one of the subjects for the day - plus all the hype on how good it is. However, all of about 10 mins was spent on it right at the end of the session - with the statement that it would be taught more fully at the next (expensive) module.
I also agree with your analogy of only being given a few pieces of a puzzle with minimal help to try and put those otherwise obscure pieces together. And thanks for sharing how you put some of those loose ends together.
Cheers
Hi Motorway,The difference between following something dynamically
or statically....
Through time frames dynamically or in a time frame statically..
There is only one high on the chart and one low
in relation to other highs and lows
There is not a daily weekly or monthly high or low
If your string the course of sales out keeping the structure of the spacing (dynamic time ) There is only a series of events happening in different moments..
You can zoom in or out but only by keeping the dynamic time structure
The same spacing proportions.. Can you keep proportion.
The course of sales is not spaced out in clock time periods
The analogy with driving the car is correct in a sense
They move the same in that
both are dynamic , they change speed
sometimes they stop , sometimes they travel fast
you can only predict if you know what the dynamic time will be
in the future...
You can only predict where the car will be if you know how fast it will be travelling , tomorrow ..
But you only know how fast it is travelling now and how fast it has been travelling...
Unlike the clock you can not predict in the same way with dynamic time
I know what time will be on the clock a 100 years from now
But that is the beguiling nature of static time..
motorway
motorway,I think you do understand
When you zoom out you are still only looking at the present moment
You are not looking into the future
yes we can zoom out and look back in time and see the past price behaviour
and see what lies from that point up ahead till the prsent moment
yes we can see the past and the present
But we can not see tomorrow
You are looking back to the car from the congestion that exists in the present.
here is where your use of the anaolgy fails , All these cars exist in the one dynamic moment in the present,,
There are no coarse of sales that exist now that are up ahead that we can see in the present moment..
What you are saying is that ( the car congestion )
You look at what is on the chart now and take postions several weeks back in the past
motorway
Tech,Snake.
Your presuming I'm using tradeguider in a conventional manner.
I will add that I have used "Canned" indicators in systems testing but very rarely. T/T has one an EMA.
But for discretionary trading not a one.
motorway,
I think the future is not yet written (which is pretty much antithetical in many Gann circles, and means I have a very radical view on the whole philosophical debates over this, but I still haven't solved all the contradictions yet, and suspect I never will).
I see each moment as unique, and every input potentially a game changing action.
I'm suggesting that using a combination of perspectives in concert allows you to see patterns which give a significant edge to perceiving how the market may unfold in the future. The Key concept is deliberately looking for times where a "black Swan" event (ala Taleb) is likely enough to constitute a consistent edge, knowing how to use the right instruments in the right markets with the ability to engage ones imagination and channel it into the future to perceive when and how these black swan events may unfold, and taking the action to take advantage of this.
This is hardly a static approach or perspective, and respectfully time is NOT static in this case, or the analysis either for that matter. It is precisely DYNAMIC in the dictionary definition of the word. Hence, I am confused by your comments. I don't think your perspective embraces mine at all from what I can see. I think we are talking from completely alien paradigms. Please elucidate if you think this is incorrect.
Does that make sense?
Mag
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