FWD - Fleetwood Limited

[Julia]

I picked up FWD today for $11.20 and no sooner as I bought it the market crashes 140 points. Only down a couple of percent but couldn't have picked a worst time to buy it.

So what were your criteria for buying it?

 

[fanger]

So what were your criteria for buying it?

Its a well run business with a great dividend and growing earnings.

 

[noirua]

Its a well run business with a great dividend and growing earnings.

$11.20 looks a good buying point and well down on the $14.30 price not long ago. Well done mate, always difficult to buy in a rapidly declining stock.

 

[matty77]

Any thoughts on this stock right now? I was reading an article the other day about Woodside and they were mentioned in regards to supply accommodation units for the offshore sites. Seems it could be a winner?

thoughts of current price, still worth having a dip?

 

[noirua]

Any thoughts on this stock right now? I was reading an article the other day about Woodside and they were mentioned in regards to supply accommodation units for the offshore sites. Seems it could be a winner?

thoughts of current price, still worth having a dip?

Not much has been said about the Queensland side of the business or New Zealand - could this be a reason for caution? Dividend is set to rise as the company has indicated as such because of asset purchases. For once FWD has loans to pay-off.
One part of me says buy and the other, wait and see.

 

[fanger]

I sold out a couple of days ago I think its heading south but I'll be buying back in again.

 

[EoinCuinn]

Excellent thread

I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.

The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.

 

[noirua]

Excellent thread

I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.

The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.

I waited patiently on FWD as I thought tipsters comments were to hold and sell some months back. They were wrong for quite awhile but eventually most were spot on; you can't do much when most of the buffaloes are charging towards the cliff edge.

Last week I could see the connection with the resource sector was bearing down on Fleetwood and not helped by interests in QLD and NZ. Now has the worm started to consider a turn? - If not, at least the high yield looks safer and dividend cover improving.
One to very carefully monitor.

 

[cudderbean]

I waited patiently on FWD as I thought tipsters comments were to hold and sell some months back. They were wrong for quite awhile but eventually most were spot on; you can't do much when most of the buffaloes are charging towards the cliff edge.

Last week I could see the connection with the resource sector was bearing down on Fleetwood and not helped by interests in QLD and NZ. Now has the worm started to consider a turn? - If not, at least the high yield looks safer and dividend cover improving.
One to very carefully monitor.

2 of my shortish (5 and 10 day) down trendlines have been broken upwards, but as confirmation I'd like to see at least one Guppy CBL breached (he recommends 2 I think) before it may be rising up out of the trough.

Good luck, mate.

 

[Country Lad]

A little way to go yet for the CBL break.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[noirua]

Excellent thread

I bought in at $11.80 before it started dropping, but our hold is for long term investment, so I tend not to pay heaps of attention to the share price.

The underlying intrinsic value looks good and stable, which prompted the purchase.

Not forgetting that much of FWD's profits come from buying letts at Resources Villages such as Woodside's and then renting appartments. This gives a higher risk flavour from the high risk resources sector.

 

[Country Lad]

After this $10.00 one, there is not a strong support level.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[noirua]

Well, there was a support level at $10 afterall and FWD stand at over $12 now. From Caravans and mobile homes right up to running and letting mining villages.

 

[fanger]

FWD preformed well of the last quarter of the year. I'm hoping I'll be able to pick this back up some time this year around the $10 to $10.50 mark.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Share price taking a hammering today, dropping more than 7% at the moment on a result which, IMO, doesn't look too bad for them. Pretty much flat EPS growth (increase of 0.75% diluted EPS compared to the previous financial year) and still with a ROE exceeding 20% (slightly down on the previous financial year).

Seems to me to be an overreaction and I'm looking for an appropriate entry point now.

 

[skc]

Share price taking a hammering today, dropping more than 7% at the moment on a result which, IMO, doesn't look too bad for them. Pretty much flat EPS growth (increase of 0.75% diluted EPS compared to the previous financial year) and still with a ROE exceeding 20% (slightly down on the previous financial year).

Seems to me to be an overreaction and I'm looking for an appropriate entry point now.

Seems pretty fully priced to me given flat EPS, falling revenue and PE ~13. A large part of FWD is pretty cyclical and I don't know if there's much visibility into the long term contract / earning profile for their accommodation villages.

Had a short on these near the open and managed to take a total of 4c. The position "should" been in profit at 100 ticks. Such an awesome trade

 

[fanger]

FWD has held up reasonably well considering most mining services having been hammered recently. Still waiting to get back in, it just never seems to get cheap enough.

 

[PortfolioPlus]

Fanger said:
"WD has held up reasonably well considering most mining services having been hammered recently. Still waiting to get back in, it just never seems to get cheap enough"

Yes it has...at $10.25 I've finally established an entry point to this company after waiting for 18 months or so.
It is run excellently by managers with skin in the game and a good div yield to boot. Happy now to wait and wait as the accommodation blocks in WA and Gladstone become almost annuity style revenue earners. Plus the grey nomads will begin buying caravans again.

 

[fanger]

Yes I got back in aswell

 

[benadem]

FWD

Can anyone explain to me the reason for the current FWD sell-off? It seems totally illogical for such a successful and fundamentally sound company.