FWD - Fleetwood Limited

[The Triangle]

FWD sold its caravan operation to Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) in 2018. They probably wish they still owned it now. Most caravan manufacturers are quoting 6 months or more delivery time. The market is booming since the start of Covid. It is surprising that ATL hasn't risen with the demand out there.

Apollo's rental fleet was hammered and a lot sold off, their debts are high and they are still running a loss - but it would be interesting to see if the caravan business would be worth more now to FWD had they held it. Eitherway ATL seem in a world of pain to me and maybe FWD can buy it back at a discount.

FWD sill maintain a caravan servicing/parts business which has done well and I noticed in the half yearly that they wrote out commercializing the IP from their caravan business.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

one view from an investor, 'activist value" Sandon Capital

After years of operational missteps and poor capital allocation, we believe Board and management changes made at Fleetwood over the past 10 months have set the company on a path to prosperity. There are numerous internal and external opportunities in the core manufactured accommodation business to drive profitable growth for many years.

Furthermore, we expect significant construction activity in the Karratha region over the next 5+ years to drive strong occupancy demand for the company’s Searipple accommodation village. The company already has excess cash on its balance sheet and this could be further bolstered by an eventual sale of the non-core RV parts and accessories business, opening up a plethora of capital management opportunities (on top of the existing 100% dividend payout ratio).

As a sign of our confidence in the new Board and management team, the strong long-term outlook for the company’s core businesses and our view that the shares remain extremely undervalued, we recently increased our holding in the company.

 

[galumay]

I reckon its a dead duck again once Bali opens up again. Probably a good short term trade for those that play the game, especially with micro funds like Sandon pumping it. Get in, get out, profit. I reckon the thing to look for is when the little funds get to run their pump in the AFR or similar, thats your opportunity.

 

[divs4ever]

I reckon its a dead duck again once Bali opens up again. Probably a good short term trade for those that play the game, especially with micro funds like Sandon pumping it. Get in, get out, profit. I reckon the thing to look for is when the little funds get to run their pump in the AFR or similar, thats your opportunity.

depends on where you see the future , mining camps or internment camps

i would prefer an uptick in mining accommodation , but some fools are trying to talk us into a war

i hold FWD

and will probably resist throwing more cash at it

DYOR

 

[peter2]

FWD is a tricky one for short term trading because the daily traded volume is low and market depth is thin. This makes buying and selling a decent size parcel a tricky exercise. I did consider buying the reversal opportunity on the BO>2.35 (SL 2.20). However seeing the volume traded that day was so low (15K) I had to pass on it.

 

[noirua]

These charts show the history of FWD from generous payer of high dividends that almost caused its demise on caravans and mining villages as the worm turned in both sectors. Live charts:

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=0&t=1

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=1&t=1

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=4&t=1

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5EFWD&p=9&t=1

The shares once reached the heady heights of $13.00 on 4 January 2011.

Trust faded in FWD after falling away in 2011 and eventually down to $1.00 in February 2016. Trust has not returned by any means despite the revived dividends.

 

[The Triangle]

Not a flash half for Fleetwood as they wrote off some intangibles/goodwill and generally had a very poor half. Divi slashed to 2 cents. Not unexpected. They warned a few months ago about a bad half. Covid was given the blame - which I can accept as tradies can't exactly work from home on a laptop sipping lattes... Hopefully that is the actual reason for the poor performance rather than actual structural issues with the company, I would have liked to see more details on the poor performing projects but guess we'll have to wait 6 months and see how H2 pans out. Still have over $55 million cash and zero debt. But trade payables has gone up 20-30 million.

A loss in Building Solutions was caused by cost increases in two major projects and COVID-19 related lockdowns and the associated decision-making uncertainty early in the half year. The impact of both projects has been quarantined to 1H FY22 and are not expected to impact the second half.....Based on the order book and outlook across the different businesses, the Company anticipates a return to profitability in the second half of FY22

 

[noirua]

Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St

Research Fleetwood's (ASX:FWD) stock price, latest news & stock analysis. Find everything from its Valuation, Future Growth, Past Performance and more.

simplywall.st

If this proves to be true us shareholders will do well:

Below Fair Value: FWD (A$1.97) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.18)

However, past management did get it wrong during the mining decline from 2012 and many think they mistimed the sale of the caravan business.

 

[sptrawler]

Fleetwood (ASX:FWD) - Stock Price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St

Research Fleetwood's (ASX:FWD) stock price, latest news & stock analysis. Find everything from its Valuation, Future Growth, Past Performance and more.

simplywall.st

If this proves to be true us shareholders will do well:

However, past management did get it wrong during the mining decline from 2012 and many think they mistimed the sale of the caravan business.

Modular housing IMO, will be a lot more lucrative than caravans in the near term, with the cost of materials and labour going through the roof, buying a fixed price block and a fixed price house will become attractive IMO.
But there is easier money to be made, in those providing the finance and those digging up raw materials IMO,I have always found picking winners in the mosh pit is difficult.

 

[divs4ever]

Modular housing IMO, will be a lot more lucrative than caravans in the near term, with the cost of materials and labour going through the roof, buying a fixed price block and a fixed price house will become attractive IMO.
But there is easier money to be made, in those providing the finance and those digging up raw materials IMO,I have always found picking winners in the mosh pit is difficult.

moshpits are about surviving ( and having fun )

changing times ( i am just not sure they will change for the better )

 

[divs4ever]

FLEETWOOD SIGNS 5 YEAR SEARIPPLE VILLAGE AGREEMENT WITH RIO TINTO
Fleetwood Limited (ASX: FWD) is pleased to advise that it has signed a five-year agreement with Rio
Tinto to provide accommodation services at Searipple Village in Karratha. The agreement is expected
to generate between $52m and $70m in revenue for Fleetwood over the term with additional options
over and above this.
Under the contract, Searipple Village is nominated as Rio Tinto’s preferred third-party accommodation
provider for all FIFO (fly-in-fly-out) Rio Tinto personnel needing accommodation in Karratha, Dampier
or Wickham where accommodation requirements cannot be met by Rio Tinto’s own accommodation.
Under the agreement Rio Tinto has secured the supply of 250 rooms per night exclusively for its
operations. The agreement also provides the flexibility to secure additional rooms, if required, on a nonexclusive basis.
Commenting on the agreement, Fleetwood’s Chief Executive Officer, Bruce Nicholson said:
“We are delighted to continue our long-standing working relationship with Rio Tinto.
This contract underpins the utilisation of Searipple Village over the next five years and provides the
basis for further occupancy in this core asset.”
This announcement was authorised by the Fleetwood Limited Board.


=================================================================================

DYOR

i hold FWD

 

[noirua]

SimplyWallStreet's Robotic point of view:
https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/con...m_campaign=Critical+Updates&utm_content=Email

 

[The Triangle]

FWD back to $2 range lately.

From the AGM preso last month they noted searipple occupancy was in the 34% range last year and currently contracted at 72% this year based on 1250 rooms. I might be missing something basic, but that equates to an 38% x 1250rooms x 365d/y x 150$/d (I'm guessing) ~ $26,000,000 increase - and they reported an EBIT margin of around 35% = quite a nice potential profit uplift vs last year.

They have increased building contracts vs last year thanks to government spending, I don't even want to guess on actual bottom line profit impacts...but can't be worse than the year before.

That leaves RV parts - which have not been great lately, but are generally small.

Company still has zero long term debts and I am a little surprised they have not been a takeover target.

 

[divs4ever]

FWD back to $2 range lately.

From the AGM preso last month they noted searipple occupancy was in the 34% range last year and currently contracted at 72% this year based on 1250 rooms. I might be missing something basic, but that equates to an 38% x 1250rooms x 365d/y x 150$/d (I'm guessing) ~ $26,000,000 increase - and they reported an EBIT margin of around 35% = quite a nice potential profit uplift vs last year.

They have increased building contracts vs last year thanks to government spending, I don't even want to guess on actual bottom line profit impacts...but can't be worse than the year before.

That leaves RV parts - which have not been great lately, but are generally small.

Company still has zero long term debts and I am a little surprised they have not been a takeover target.

i held these between 2011 and 2023 ( initial buy-in was $10.95 , i tried averaging down buying as low as $3.71 in 2013 ,, but it kept sliding i finally exited @ $1.21 )

good luck if you play here