FWD - Fleetwood Limited

clowboy · 27 April 2005

FWD

Any one have any thoughts on this stock?

Tried to sell today becuase it is killing my portfolio but it opened below my sell price (can't do at market with account).

Doesn't seem to have a bottom, any thoughts?

markrmau · 27 April 2005

Re: FWD

This is by no means a recomendation etc.....

Looking at the intraday graph, the low $6.80's price was rejected by the market. Are you sure it is not near the bottom of its fall? An 8.2% 100% franked yield should give it a bottom sometime soon. It's not like clf with dodgy (? by the sounds of other comments) management or a realestate company subject to massive drops in land value.

Of course the chart looks appalling but there are a lot of XSO companies who have been hammered recently - perhaps unjustifiably.

I might look at buying some myself - if I see further evidence that $6.8 is rejected by the market.

If you want to sell, just stick in your sell order for $6.50 and you will get whatever it opens at tomorrow (assuming you aren't trying to offload $100k worth)

clowboy · 27 April 2005

Re: FWD

yea the whole intraday $6.80 happened yesterday as well (but at $7.10 or somthing) so I'm not so sure.

In terms of yield yea it's great but I guess the concern is that it is coming mainly from the special dividends (otherwise yield is around 3%).

I thought this stock was a real goer but it's really starting to let me down and I've already held on way longer than I should have.

Shrug

RichKid · 27 April 2005

Re: FWD

Just my view but it looks like the end of the trend. Complex head and shoulders or multi top, eitherway it's a top reversal. Broken through all support lines that I can see. Might be a pullback to exit on but with the current market sentiment I doubt it. Depth suggest it'll gap down again. Falling on high volume too.

I thought the fundamentals of this co were good but saw it too late so didn't enter. Price can always get ahead of itself and when it falls the momentum can push it beyond a 'fair' value too. Maybe it'll settle soon and range. Shame to see that nice long trend end.

TjamesX · 28 April 2005

Re: FWD

The fundamentals of this co were the reason for year in year out rises in the share price over the last few years, and these don't seem to have changed a great deal so it definitly is a bit of ?? over the sudden dramatic fall. I actually purchased some above $8 last week after I thought the general market would rise. The general market did and FWD went the other way - in hindsight as soon as this happened I thought something was up, and should have done something about it, but I held for another day or two until I decided on a discretionary sell at $7.58 - purely technical. phew

looking at the chart I think its a bit of a worry that volume has been rising as the price has moved south. Around 6.80 there seems to be some support (bounced off this about a year ago) but apart from that there's not a lot.

????

TJ

GreatPig · 28 April 2005

Re: FWD

I bought some back in late Dec '04 for $8.33 when the price was around my base trend line. It subsequently oscillated sideways through the trend line, and I sold them again at the end of March for $8.14.

This decision was based purely on the chart. While the price wasn't really falling much then, I decided the chart wasn't showing any signs of another uptrend so I'd be better off putting the money elsewhere.

Perhaps lucky timing in this case, but I would have sold anyway when the price dropped below $8.

Cheers,
GP

stockman · 28 April 2005

Re: FWD

markrmau said:
This is by no means a recomendation etc.....

Looking at the intraday graph, the low $6.80's price was rejected by the market. Are you sure it is not near the bottom of its fall? An 8.2% 100% franked yield should give it a bottom sometime soon. It's not like clf with dodgy (? by the sounds of other comments) management or a realestate company subject to massive drops in land value.

Of course the chart looks appalling but there are a lot of XSO companies who have been hammered recently - perhaps unjustifiably.

I might look at buying some myself - if I see further evidence that $6.8 is rejected by the market.

If you want to sell, just stick in your sell order for $6.50 and you will get whatever it opens at tomorrow (assuming you aren't trying to offload $100k worth)

8.2% fully franked yield? i just looked on netwealth and dividend is only a little over 2.5%. Earnings yield is 8.2%. Stock i believe may still continue to do well but if it misses any targets it will get hurt.

clowboy · 28 April 2005

Re: FWD

stockman,

Dividend for FY05 (EST) is 23cps fully franked
the company is paying an aditional 40cps fully franked as special dividends subject to no acusitions taking place.

this would not factor into the yield in comsec's reports

TjamesX · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

Holy gamboodas....

Down 10% today, currently at $6.... a fall of about 28% in the last week!! There has been no news provided by the company, ASX queried yesterday as to price movements and asked if the company was complying with its continous disclosure requirements..... FWD responded vaguely that it had nothing to report and there was no revisions to previously provided forecasts - yet. Obviously some shareholders think otherwise

I really considering buying into the pain - need to look at reports more closely, but I'm reluctant to move until whatever is going on surfaces

From chart i think next possible support is $5.50, thats if it does not bounce off $6

TJ

clowboy · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

Seems to have stabalized around $6 mark but how long it will last I don't know. The stock seems to move in leaps and bounds I Had to keep revising my sell order becuase it kept moving so fast.

Im finally out of this stock and boy did it cost me.

I may look at re-entering at around $4.50 if it falls that low (I think it may) depending on any anouncments that come out.

I really thought this was a good company with good managment and can't understand it's freefall, maybee people are just cutting there loses??????

Investor · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

I do not hold. I am only guessing that the price fall, is because its sales are for products that involve very discretionary spending and has either fallen or will fall.

A profit downgrade could soon occur (but I am only guessing). Take a look at the company's reply to the ASX lodged yesterday.

I do not like that kind of reply.

clowboy · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

Slowing heading back up....for now

Quote form the West Australian

" Rumor of the day

Amid a booming mining sector Perth-based donga specialist, Fleetwood, has seen its share price slide almost 20% in the past three weeks. The fall prompted the stock exchange to ask questions. the company reckons it is finalising its march quarter results but the market talk is rocketing costs will force the company to downgrade its profit forecast. Fleetwood fell 50c to $6.70"

clowboy · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

Investor,

It would seem that the market doesn't either.

markrmau · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

The afr had an article today saying that it is because of rumoured profit downgrade.

I don't see any reason for this rumour and sp reaction. If anything, sales in WA should be booming because of all the construction huts they supply to the mining industry.

However, the market is almost always right, and the saying goes that you should never try to catch a falling knife.

Investor · 3 May 2005

Re: FWD

markrmau said:
....I don't see any reason for this rumour and sp reaction. If anything, sales in WA should be booming because of all the construction huts they supply to the mining industry.

However, the market is almost always right, and the saying goes that you should never try to catch a falling knife.

If the rumour was unfounded, the reply to the ASX query could have gone something like:

"Rumours are unfounded. We are on track."

But, I am only guessing. Also, I am a simple man.

seaurchin · 10 May 2005

FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while

fwd ...has been falling to way off highs...and one of my brokers is happy to hold it for yield. investmnet.cheers...isold out of CLF it was bad investmnet the only loss for the year! very large loss thou ..did not sell early as i usually sell ..the company kept saying profit on track??? sorry if others followed.

Julia · 11 May 2005

Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while

Likewise. My broker recommended FWD about a month ago and it has dropped sharply ever since. I have some concerns about the influence of rising petrol costs in the caravan market. Am advised to hold for the upside and yield. Any other comments?

Julia

GreatPig · 12 May 2005

Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while

Julia,

Lesson #1: do your own research and don't blindly follow the advice of others - whether they're licenced to give advice or not.

Here's a chart of Fleetwood. I can't offer you any advice, but if it were me, I'd be ignoring the past (since it's not changeable) and looking to the future. The chart shows prices in a bit of a rally right now, so I'd be waiting to see what happens before deciding what to do.

To me, a strong drop below about $5.70 would be a worry, otherwise I'd probably hold.

This is just general comment based on my own situation and trading method, and should not be construed as any type of advice for your situation.

Cheers,
GP

Julia · 12 May 2005

Re: FWD..fleetwood i know nothing just watchlist it for a while

Hi GP

Thanks. Appreciate your comments and thanks for the chart.

Julia

GreatPig · 26 March 2006

Another chart of FWD, as Julia requested in another thread.

Not the sort of stock I'd be holding right now from a capital growth point of view, but I don't know what their dividends are like.

And I don't know that any sort of trailing stop would have kept you in the stock from the drop in May last year till now (or even till Dec 05), as it's been oscillating sideways with relatively large drops on the down-sides of the oscillations.

Cheers,
GP

FWD - Fleetwood Limited

clowboy

markrmau

clowboy

RichKid

PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

TjamesX

GreatPig

Pigs In Space

stockman

clowboy

TjamesX

clowboy

Investor

clowboy

clowboy

markrmau

Investor

seaurchin

Julia

In Memoriam

GreatPig

Pigs In Space

Attachments

Julia

In Memoriam

GreatPig

Pigs In Space

Attachments

Similar threads

FWD - Fleetwood Limited

PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

Pigs In Space

In Memoriam

Pigs In Space

Attachments

In Memoriam

Pigs In Space

Attachments

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency