Forex for Dummies

[Stormin_Norman]

no exits dont get the attention they deserve. everyone thinks entry. noone thinks exit.

 

[Cartman]

no exits dont get the attention they deserve. everyone thinks entry. noone thinks exit.

not gonna argue with ya Norm --- im still 18 months behind ya on that road

actually i imagine coding either would equally as difficult --- the only thing i was thinking from a traders pov. is that if the trade is in profit the exit can be a bit less painful (even if a bit off) than if u r stopped out too early with a crook entry --

 

[CanOz]

no exits dont get the attention they deserve. everyone thinks entry. noone thinks exit.

Quite often thats where i give back my profit too, not having took one earlier i have my TP too high, now trying to set a little lower at stronger resistance, not at the outside of candle tails, but closer to the close. Quite often i was finding the price would retest and by that time i have moved my stop to BE and get stopped out.

CanOz

 

[Stormin_Norman]

is closing a position a specific exit strategy? or is it an opposite 'entry'?

 

[Cartman]

is closing a position a specific exit strategy? or is it an opposite 'entry'?

nah --- an exit should be a take profit strategy (or at least a substantial part thereof ) ----- just my opinion though

 

[CanOz]

nah --- an exit should be a take profit strategy (or at least a substantial part thereof ) ----- just my opinion though

It can be either. For example if you were using an indicator to assist in entries then you can use the same to assist in exits. Generally i use support of resistance to exit or at least move the trailing stop.

CanOz

 

[Cartman]

It can be either. For example if you were using an indicator to assist in entries then you can use the same to assist in exits. Generally i use support of resistance to exit or at least move the trailing stop.

CanOz

hey Can ---- the thing about exits on FX is, because its so cyclical u cant be 'hanging around' to see if the next leg up is gona happen ---- just my opinion of course --- but much better to take 2/3's the profit (if u have any --- and let the rest ride out the consolidation phase of the cycle and hopefully continue with the trend (trail yr stop) ----- once proven u can always enter again -- but alway good to lock in some profit ------ others may disagree of course

 

[Stormin_Norman]

i call take profits 'stop profits'.

 

[tayser]

no-one's mentioned it yet, however:

Buy this book:

http://www.moneybags.com.au/default.asp?d=0&t=1&id=5016&c=0&a=74

It's very good for teaching you the mechanics of how the market works - there's no trading plans etc to get out of the book, it's purely for immersing yourself with the terminology et al.

Trading systems? Start on forexfactory.com - many many many many many free ones out there.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

definitely dont pay for a trading system.

 

[tayser]

I've paid to attend workshops and I've got a heck of a lot out of them.

By the way: there are no decent Australian Forex brokers, we're a black hole in the FX broking world.

Currenex now lets you open lite accounts with a min $2500 opening (broker dependent) - this is basically leapfrogging all the bull**** market makers and hokey pokey brokers in one.

 

[CanOz]

hey Can ---- the thing about exits on FX is, because its so cyclical u cant be 'hanging around' to see if the next leg up is gona happen ---- just my opinion of course --- but much better to take 2/3's the profit (if u have any --- and let the rest ride out the consolidation phase of the cycle and hopefully continue with the trend (trail yr stop) ----- once proven u can always enter again -- but alway good to lock in some profit ------ others may disagree of course

I guess thats the trick for me, to take profits or try and let them run. You say take 2/3 rds and Stormin says (i think you're saying) let them run.

Thanks for the link Tayser.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Cartman]

i call take profits 'stop profits'.

is it possible to code take 2/3's profits let 1/3 run with a trailer?? ----

if its an AE system it should pick up on the next entry anyway yes? (that is a question not a statement -----

interesting exercise to see which method provided the best results over time --

FX just seems a bit too fickle to try chasing outlier trades/absolute tops/bottoms etc when the meat is in the middle of the cycle ---- and it cycles very regularly --

as i say though my opinion only and based on less proven data than what u have Norm

Cana, i kinda believe the bird in the hand scenario --- but that may be totally wrong for an AE system -- particularly if it has compounded the position and hits the big move

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Currenex now lets you open lite accounts with a min $2500 opening (broker dependent) - this is basically leapfrogging all the bull**** market makers and hokey pokey brokers in one.

everyone's a market maker in forex.

the ECN is a great marketing myth for the retail trader.

there are only good brokers with good capital behind them, and dodgy 2 bob ones.

the majority of respectable brokers neutralise positions and hedge the remaining exposure to another player in the market.

 

[lesm]

do u use support/resistance?

Yes.

how do u look to program that?

Would need to give that some thought, as this may be constrained by the platform you are using. You may need the ability to draw the s/r lines on a chart, this can be automated, and then reference the chart from the program.

A similar question has been raised related to automating the detection of trendline breaches on the Ninja Trader forum. The response to date has been that it is on the list of possible development candidates for NT7, as it requires the ability to reference the chart from NT, which is not currently available for strategies.

 

[CanOz]

Cana, i kinda believe the bird in the hand scenario --- but that may be totally wrong for an AE system -- particularly if it has compounded the position and hits the big move

All good points Cartman, and to me this is where FX differs the most from other markets is the propensity of reversion to mean or cycles as you say. I guess thats where Lesm's testing is handy as it can highlight the difference in performance with different exits.

At the end of the day, its to do with time frame as well. If your daytrading then getting out sooner may be the way to go but if your position trading then you may hang on longer. This is highlighted in the 3 duck system as well.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Yes.



Would need to give that some thought, as this may be constrained by the platform you are using. You may need the ability to draw the s/r lines on a chart, this can be automated, and then reference the chart from the program.

A similar question has been raised related to automating the detection of trendline breaches on the Ninja Trader forum. The response to date has been that it is on the list of possible development candidates for NT7, as it requires the ability to reference the chart from NT, which is not currently available for strategies.

S&R is coded into pattern explorer for AB Lesm, have you used Pattern Explorer? I think you can view the coding too.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

A 3 duck entry on the EURJPY this arvo.

CanOz

 

[lesm]

Lesm,
Are those stats from Oanda trades?

How did you get them into excel?

cheers

BentRod,

Yes.

I set the format to CSV after selecting the Format tab from within the Full Transaction History Section, then copy and paste the transaction history information into Notepad and save it as '.csv' file.

Then I open it up in excel and copy and append the transactions to the existing transactions in the master excel workbook I have set up for analysing trade activity.


A more detailed explanation below:

From within your Oanda Account

Select Account--->

then select Full Transaction History--->

then select Format Tab
Click on the ----> CSV Radio Button

Then select and copy the list of displayed transactions into Notepad and save the file as a ".csv" file.

This assumes that you have set up the range filter under the Range tab for the transaction period that you are interested in.

Cheers.

 

[CanOz]

Also mentioned in the 3 duck system is that if the pair is trading in a range, then keep profit targets more conservative (reversion to mean is more probable). Where as if the pair is in a strong trend then you could be more agressive with trailing stops/profit targets. I like this, it makes sense and its not that hard to tell when the pairs get stuck in a range. As Cartman says, its frequent.

CanOz