Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

For bottom pickers and knife catchers

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subaru69 said:
now I think we've got further to go :confused:. Which sux because I've run out of capital and have enough of a margin just to allow sleep at night, not further buying :eek:.

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lmao,.... I am hearing you mate, But no down turn last's forever, So I think we will be good in the long run. I don't think it will be a fast recovery but if you continue to invest at regularly in 12 - 18 months I think you will be pretty happy.
 
explod said:
To say "I think" is to indicate that one is uncertain. It is necessary to think, of course. However before reaching a final decision one need to have moved pased the state of "think" to the area, however unperfect of "know"

Reflexion on our self talk is an important element of decision making in my view.

And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.
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Sorry total bunk.:) But I like semantics.

What do you think? (an opinion follows this question) Usually what you think, perhaps know, but usually what you think.

We never really know. If I knew I would be richer than anybody. It is impossible to ever know in the stock market.

Thinking is part of the congnitive process and does not indicate weakness, nor display inferiority. What you are attempting to do with your opinion (what you think) is cut the normal thought process into bits.
 
Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

prawn_86 said:
IPR: Ipernica
They are a firm that deals in solving IP problems/breach of IP. They gain a fee when they reach settlement of the breach. Basically like IP lawyers or at least something along those lines.
Last year was about 18c now 7.6c. Current MC of about 21mill cash at bank 32mill :eek: No debt

Man, this just made me realise how much i wish i had some more cash to invest :(

disc - i do not hold any of the above, but wish i could at these prices.
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Well this one panned out sooner than i thought, but with a market inefficiency like that its not surprising...
 
It's Snake Pliskin said:
Sorry total bunk.:) But I like semantics.

What do you think? (an opinion follows this question) Usually what you think, perhaps know, but usually what you think.

We never really know. If I knew I would be richer than anybody. It is impossible to ever know in the stock market.

Thinking is part of the congnitive process and does not indicate weakness, nor display inferiority. What you are attempting to do with your opinion (what you think) is cut the normal thought process into bits.
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What I think is the process to knowledge for me. I would not decide on what I think but it helps me to explore the possiblity. If the possibility becomes probable then I have something to investigate with greater impetus.

e.g.

1. I know that the US is virtually broke

2. I know that the US dollar is being printed to worthlessness

3. From reading history I know that gold holds its value

4. Since 2002 I know that gold has gone up average around 30% per year

5. I know that certain sections of the community (I will not name race) for the last couple of years have been selling property and buying physical gold.

So by bying some physical gold I know that I have reasonable insurance against a crash in other things. If this does not occur then I know that I will survive on the other things. In Australia we are insulated from some of these matters and our dollar is growing stronger so I know we are protected one way or the other.

So to think is ok, and thank goodness that we can, but it is just the beginning. And self talk IMHO is well worth the contemplation.

Bunkum??

But having said all that I most certainly missread the bottom for SBM.
 
3. From reading history I know that gold holds its value
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Not from 1987 to 2000 it didn`t.Break even would have been 2005.17 years is a long time to wait for value to return.For some it`s nice to look at but better bought when out of favour for mine.

Historical chart.
 

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Wysiwyg said:
Not from 1987 to 2000 it didn`t.Break even would have been 2005.17 years is a long time to wait for value to return.For some it`s nice to look at but better bought when out of favour for mine.

Historical chart.
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That situation was created by decoupling gold from currencies. A very recent phenomena. In doing that of course paper money was no longer backed by anything more than bank promise, a promise on which they appear no longer able to deliver.

So yes gold was suppresed artificially from 80 to 2000 but it is flying out of the bag now.

There was a time when an ounce of gold was a dollar coin, it is 1000 times greater today. Jason Hommell, (a raging ramper of course) says its going to between 20 and 50,000 per ounce. I'll be happy if only a fraction of that is true.

So yes you have had a 20 year dip, the bottom of the dip was 1998 to 2002and compared to previous bulls in gold we have just come off the bottom of this one .
 
explod said:
That situation was created by decoupling gold from currencies. A very recent phenomena. In doing that of course paper money was no longer backed by anything more than bank promise, a promise on which they appear no longer able to deliver.

So yes gold was suppresed artificially from 80 to 2000 but it is flying out of the bag now.

There was a time when an ounce of gold was a dollar coin, it is 1000 times greater today. Jason Hommell, (a raging ramper of course) says its going to between 20 and 50,000 per ounce. I'll be happy if only a fraction of that is true.

So yes you have had a 20 year dip, the bottom of the dip was 1998 to 2002and compared to previous bulls in gold we have just come off the bottom of this one .
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could you clarify the end of your statement for me explod? Which bullmarkets are you referring to outside of the one in the 70's?
 
professor_frink said:
could you clarify the end of your statement for me explod? Which bullmarkets are you referring to outside of the one in the 70's?
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I cant, a bit wild that one and apologise

In fact the gold standard used to keep gold prices fairly stable. There was a bit of a jump around 1936 from $US20 to $35 where it was then held in check by US Government Regulation.

The decoupling of gold from currrency created the conditions on which gold could rise from that $35 to the $800 peak in 1980.

My contention is (and this should be on the gold thread) that this situation is repeating and the ratio says to me that it will go very high indeed this time.
 
explod said:
I cant, a bit wild that one and apologise

In fact the gold standard used to keep gold prices fairly stable. There was a bit of a jump around 1936 from $US20 to $35 where it was then held in check by US Government Regulation.

The decoupling of gold from currrency created the conditions on which gold could rise from that $35 to the $800 peak in 1980.

My contention is (and this should be on the gold thread) that this situation is repeating and the ratio says to me that it will go very high indeed this time.
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I'll go and make my next post over in the gold thread so that this thread stays on topic:)
 
Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

Schmuckie said:
I caught one bottom and one falling knife in recent months, and have profited immensely on both.

...

I bought a Canadian gold exploration company called Aurelian Resources with a world-class find in Ecuador, outstanding management and plenty of cash for operations. The Ecuadorian government declared a mining moratorium while it sorted out its mining laws. The share price fell from close to $10 to $3.05 in three days. ...

... while the price was still falling, I immediately placed an order for 500 shares at $3.80; 1,000 shares at $3.25; and 10,000 shares if it fell to $1.50. The shares bottomed at $3.05 the same day I got my 1,500 shares. The very next day, the situation stabilized when the Ecuadorian government announced it would be allowing "responsible" mining to go ahead but everything was on hold for up to 180 days while a new mining law was drafted. The shares then shot back up into the $4.50 range.
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Yeeesssssss!!!!!

Since posting this, I bought a few more shares. Aurelian got taken out this morning, and I sold all my shares for a pretty profit at the opening.

Used the proceeds to buy a whole whack of EQN shares -- speaking of falling knives.
 
MCR must be at rock bottom. I've started buying back in. Luckily for me I sold at a price over 50% above my buy back price.Sold at $3.20 and had the opportunity to buy back at$1.91. This is another benefit I have from my mistake in buying CFE by ticking the wrong box. I not only made a profit on the CFE buy and sold them before the latest fall but I now have 50% more MCR than I would have had if I not made the error. I had sold the MCR to cover my CFE buy.

With a PE ratio now of about 4 to 1 and increasing production mostly offsetting the falling nickel price it is hard to see the SP of MCR falling much more.

Oh how I love this bear market.
 
Its NOT at a bottom.
This is a retracement in a corrective up move in an overall bear trend.
Not close yet in my view.
Around 5500-5700 this move before making new lows.
4200 ish.
Once it gets toward there you'll see some capitulation!
 
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