For bottom pickers and knife catchers

[Sean K]

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to track of all these now. Too many nominations and I have a house to clean and food to cook ... Well, food to cook. Actually, we eat out.

Anyway, too many to keep updating, so: punters, please keep providing updates to your picks with the use of a graph if possible, to see how your bottom or knife is progressing.

My pick, KMN has come off a bit with the continuing 'severe and imminent correction', but the bottom it still in. So far.

Bottom called (17c) when stock was at 26c.

Unfortunately, 30c Great Wall of China halting it.

 

[cordelia]

Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

Once again it depends on your style and timeframe.

I know many fundy people who have made a motza picking low valued stocks.

If you have the patience and the conviction to stick to your analysis then you can catch huges moves, rather than catching a small part of a big move. By the time a trend is confirmed a big proportion of the gains can be gone.

Horses for courses. Each to their own etc etc

I have to agree with this. Its totally ridiculous to try and predict when a stock will bottom out. In fact prediction of any movement is ridiculous.

One thing I always find bazaar is the idea of waiting for confirmation. Even if there is so called "confirmation" of a reversal who knows how long it will last.

Indicators are just as they imply "indicators" and can signal a bottom or a reversal or whatever but anything can happen. I don't think you should rush in and buy a stock just because its cheap and you think its near a bottom but confirmation can often occur when the big move has been made. Buying in then can be just as risky IMO. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for a big sign saying " its safe to buy this stock now" only plays you into the hands of those who have already positioned themselves.

From my observations when a stock botttoms out it goes sideways for a bit. I think that's a good place to enter with a small position and a tight stop....

 

[Sean K]

Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

Its totally ridiculous to try and predict when a stock will bottom out. In fact prediction of any movement is ridiculous.

......

From my observations when a stock botttoms out it goes sideways for a bit. I think that's a good place to enter with a small position and a tight stop....

So, rediculous, yet you then go and pick a bottom.

Really

Having a stop seems to be an important consideration.

 

[YELNATS]

Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

IOne thing I always find bazaar

is a persian shopping precinct. lol.

 

[cordelia]

Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

So, rediculous, yet you then go and pick a bottom.

Really

Having a stop seems to be an important consideration.

First of all let me say that I think this is a really great thread....My post was in response to the one earlier regarding waiting for a confirmation of a bottom before entering...

Sorry to cause confusion but maybe I didn't word it correctly but just to clarify. I am not saying you can't pick a bottom..clearly you can as evidenced by those who have bought at the bottom just prior to a reversal.... My point was directed more to the idea of waiting for confirmation that a stock has bottomed out and won't fall any further. You can try and predict this but no one can guarantee it.

It's like trying to predict the top......

I guess what I was really trying to say was that you can get a pretty good idea of the bottom but it is still uncertain. However, by waiting for confirmation of a reversal before taking a position in order to avoid risk you can miss the opportunity of a big price move and there is still no guarantee that the stock will keep going up and not back down to where it was...

Personally I think trying to pick the bottom carries less risk if you manage it well and I am not going to bore everyone with my reasons for that...

There's no guarantees of anything in the market hence my comment about stops...

 

[subaru69]

This might be a little off topic but I wasn't sure where to put it....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/business/13stra.html?em&ex=1216180800&en=9c507bb2f9b1e7f3&ei=5087

Basically it's saying that the guys (and girls) that get paid $M's can't get it right and that you may as well have an index fund. I know this thread is about individual picks, but if a managed fund is just a collection of individual picks then where do small(ish) investors like us stand?

PS - if you'd asked me 6 months ago I would have said things were cheap , if you asked me a month ago I would have said they were cheaper (too cheap), now I think we've got further to go . Which sux because I've run out of capital and have enough of a margin just to allow sleep at night, not further buying .

PPS - despite what I've said above, I'm still looking for the next undervalued stock. I never learn .

PPPS - I love smilies.

 

[Dutchy3]

I'll have a crack at a bottom pick with this one ...

CVN now moving back within previous support zone at 50ish.

XJO continues to bleed ... this one holds
Reasonable volume kicked in on the white day ... bit of a three day reversal.
Last two days nice and indecisive.

 

[Logique]

I don't know what it will take to breathe optimism back into world markets. If oil prices could ease it would help. Or the US property market stabilize. Or some better than expected profit announcements. But it will take something, but then I think there will be quite a stampede of short-covering.

In short, patiently looking to buy, not sell from here.

Two out of three overnight in US. It should be a better day for the knife catchers, especially those who picked up holdings in the financials sector. However one day does not a sustained rally make.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Already caught the MCR knife and bleeding a little but sitting tight incase someone turns up with bandages. APA doing some bottom bouncing.

 

[Sean K]

Watching ROY for a potential turn around. Approaching long term support zone. Could just as easily sink through it too...

Not calling a bottom, just watching for one.

 

[Sean K]

It's too late to call a bottom in the overall market IMO, but there's a few that are coming to my attention as possible opportunities, even if we have a bear rally. Still dangerous to go Hold and Hope.

Here's another potentially coming to a lot of support.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?

1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
2. Buying what you think is great value.

Is it technical or fundamental or both?

I have enjoyed reading this thread.

 

[So_Cynical]

It's too late to call a bottom in the overall market IMO, but there's a few that are coming to my attention as possible opportunities, even if we have a bear rally. Still dangerous to go Hold and Hope.

Here's another potentially coming to a lot of support.

Kennas...i Hate QBE so much, the aholes still owe me $600 bucks.:angry:

Anyway its fair to say i missed the bottom with MRE, but ill call bottom again for my all
time favorite TRY - TROY RESOURCES....calling Bottom at 1.60 something.

Company Summary

• Market Cap: 117,313,615
• Issued Shares: 69,829,533
• Producing Gold (low cost in Brazil..5 year mine life @ year 1)
• 55 Million+ in cash.
• Debt free.
• No Gold hedging.
• 52-wk High: 3.99
• 52-wk Low: 1.62
• History of 6+ producing gold mines in Brazil and Aust.
• 20+ Million in shares and Hard assets (excluding cash)
• No Liability's.
• http://www.try.com.au/

Yes i hold.

 

[Sean K]

Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?

1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
2. Buying what you think is great value.

Is it technical or fundamental or both?

I have enjoyed reading this thread.

TA, FA, Gann, Cristal Ball, anything goes Snake, just need some sort of theory why it's at a bottom, or close to. Cheers.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

TA, FA, Gann, Cristal Ball, anything goes Snake, just need some sort of theory why it's at a bottom, or close to. Cheers.

Thanks Kennas.

Do you think CSL qualifies? Some interesting action today.

 

[Struzball]

Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?

1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
2. Buying what you think is great value.

Is it technical or fundamental or both?

I have enjoyed reading this thread.

I would assume bottom picking is what you think is the bottom, knife catching is what you think is great value. Or maybe I've drank too much tonight.

 

[explod]

Just for the purposes of this thread what is the definition of bottom picking?

1. Buying what you think is the bottom.
2. Buying what you think is great value.

Is it technical or fundamental or both?

I have enjoyed reading this thread.

Never like the word THINK. this business is about making decisions on the ballance of all available evidence.

1. The bottom cannot be recognised untill has been established. After the fall the sideways action does not signify the bottom. When after that period we have a rise in price on volume we may on ballance say we have established the bottom. Of course some reversals occurr very quickly others take many months.

2. Value is what you understand to be so. What others say is of no value and dangerous. All decisions must be informed by ones own research, this is fundamental. On technical the same applies, one needs to understand charts and all the elements that comprise its structure so that it is your own research leading to your own decisions. Tips, opinions and reccommendations can be great leads, no more no less.

 

[Sean K]

Never like the word THINK. this business is about making decisions on the ballance of all available evidence.

Confused explod.

Can you make a decision, without thinking?

What's your replacement word?

Conclusion?
Sum of all evidence?
Generally considered position?
The sum of all available information?



Semantics?

What others say is of no value and dangerous.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

[explod]

Confused explod.

Can you make a decision, without thinking?

What's your replacement word?

Conclusion?
Sum of all evidence?
Generally considered position?
The sum of all available information?



Semantics?

Thanks for the heads up.

To say "I think" is to indicate that one is uncertain. It is necessary to think, of course. However before reaching a final decision one need to have moved pased the state of "think" to the area, however unperfect of "know"

Reflexion on our self talk is an important element of decision making in my view.

And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.

 

[Sean K]

And pedantic semantics is good exercise on this Saturday morning.

Therefore, I am.