For bottom pickers and knife catchers

[Sean K]

Seat belt on.

Sorry, I left out Gurglar's and Rubs picks. They will be in the next update.

 

[tech/a]

FLX I like this morning.

 

[Sean K]

I have another potential bottom. Not calling a bottom yet, but it's on the watch potential bottom list.

Fundamentally looks very undervalued on assets and potential assets (see thread), so any further move down just makes it too cheap. Unless they have some bad drilling results at Metrocoal and the Cape Alumina float flops.

'float flops' in the one sentance...lol

Chart wise long term support at .45 ish and a big descending wedge triangle looking thing. There's a capper lurking at 60 which held it back last time. I always think the title capper is only used by rampers, but there was a couple of rediclously large orders sitting in the sell depth that were just BS, IMO. (Or, I'm a ramper )

I'll call a bottom at .45 when it breaks 60. If it breaks 60.

 

[AnDy62]

Great thread, love it

Can I throw Macquarie Leisure Trust, MLE into the ring. Currently $1.515, after hitting highs of $3.89. Nothing has realing changed for this company which has Dreamworld as its main investment as well as bowling centres, marinas and I think moving into gyms. Sold down on its name sharing with Macquarie and worries about the economy/fuel costs dampening Dreamworld activity etc. Overdone? IMO yes.

 

[JTLP]

CGF looks to have bottomed out (provided financials don't go kaput one more time )

Sold off a part of the business to AXA (possibly to reduce debt), staying within a $2 range (give or take), seems to be holding its own now. Nice dividend yield (6.1%) as well.

If i could post a chart my point would be highlighted nicely but my computer isn't letting me!

 

[subaru69]

Hi Kennas,

I can't remember if we were including dividends in the bottom picks?
If so there was a ~10% (3c) div for RCY on 3/7/8. (it would make it look a bit better)

Either way good thread.

Good to see you back with the 'infamous' thread too. I've been quietly watching it and noticed your recent talk of nature/nurture (a bit oversimplified, as gene expression is actually influenced by the environment and you could argue the reciprocal also):boy::boy:

 

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas,

I can't remember if we were including dividends in the bottom picks?
If so there was a ~10% (3c) div for RCY on 3/7/8. (it would make it look a bit better)

Either way good thread.

Good to see you back with the 'infamous' thread too. I've been quietly watching it and noticed your recent talk of nature/nurture (a bit oversimplified, as gene expression is actually influenced by the environment and you could argue the reciprocal also):boy::boy:

I'll try and put the dividends in somehow, but will rely on posters to advise me.

Yes, agree with the complexity and cross over. I thought I wrote that somewhere also.

It's a very complex crossover issue...

 

[So_Cynical]

I brought MRE - MINARA RESOURCES LTD, today so im calling Bottom @ 2.51

Company Summary

• 52-wk High: 7.77
• 52-wk Low: 2.51
• Market Cap: 1,171,785,736
• Issued Shares: 466,846,907
• World top 10 Nickel producer
• 40+ years mine life at 60% owned Murrin Murrin Operation
• No Debt
• 150+ million Cash
• Totally unhedged
• 2007 profit 272 million
• Last dividend 100% franked, 25 cents

http://www.minara.com.au/files/docs/107_Presentation_to_Investors_-_29_February_2008b.pdf

And if its not bottom then its certainly near bottom and great value....4 year chart below.

 

[Logique]

There are a bunch of stocks now starting to look attractive, if not compelling to a TA trader.

I think of big majors like QBE and MQG as proxies for the overall market. For the TA traders, have a look at these two and tell me they aren't drawing your attention at these levels. Even beaten down BNB is moving forward again.

I don't know what it will take to breathe optimism back into world markets. If oil prices could ease it would help. Or the US property market stabilize. Or some better than expected profit announcements. But it will take something, but then I think there will be quite a stampede of short-covering.

In short, patiently looking to buy, not sell from here.

 

[Sean K]

I brought MRE - MINARA RESOURCES LTD, today so im calling Bottom @ 2.51

Cripes that's been smashed. Agree with the potential bottom technically. No idea about the funnies.

Obviously PON has crucified it.

 

[grace]

BUL Blue Energy might be one to watch with ANZ now with the say on 31% of their shares thanks to Chimaera Capital. ANZ haven't started selling yet, but the market is certainly scared.

I'm watching this one for a top up (will be averaging down unfortunately). Like the fundamentals though.

 

[donos]

Re: Bottom pickers and knife catchers

RNY, RCY, and FXL should all fit into this criteria. Plus they all provide reasonable dividends to tide you over 'til the price comes good.

Donos



So, it's going to be hard to manage unless we nominate things that are **** pick, or a knife catch, or maybe both .....

Not sure whether to separate the fundamental from the technical correction, or what??

Thread under construction and welcome for suggestions.

I think I can manage both constructs with assistance from members to remind me of gains and losses, to be added into the Pickers and Catchers Matrix..

One thing that I think this may achieve is to have a section for punters to lay their best picks on the line, either FA or TA, and we see where they go.

However, it's for a bottom pick!!! Or, there abouts....

Also, the most important thing is some analysis.

Some justification for a bottom, or an oversold.

I'm going to record them all, and splash them up when I can, to try and make this wothwhile..

Everyone is under scrutiny so don't just splash up any old sold off dog...

 

[metric]

how about catching a sheathed knife. imp may be going through the early stages of a takeover. sp has been way oversold today and there is no reason.....

What makes IMP such a desireable takeover candidate..?

* fundementally sound business. Natural gas in Northeastern USA ...Recession/Depression proof business
* undervalued due to the mob on the Market not having noticed it ...probably because it is an Aussie Company ...but it is drilling "over there" and not "here"
* low SP due to someone playing ducks and drakes with the downselling short at the moment ...possibly with a view of discounting the takeover price of the shares ...when they go for it bigtime
* has gas producing wells ...140+ commercial wells ...60% hedged and 40% enjoying the recent $7 to $13+Mcf price sales rise
* has large acreage of productive leases yet to drill ...over 150 positive Pud sites identified for drilling
* already connected to grid in the biggest most profitable markets of Washington, New York, etc. Very low cost connnection to the grid due to massive close proximity of pipelines ...unlike the dangerously hairy sites in the Gulf of New Mexico
* already pumping gas into the biggest gas marketplace in the world
* are to be part of the Marcellus rush ...Announcement due any day now
* have their own drill rig and crew ...very experienced. They have drilled 25 out of 25 successful wells so far ...100% success rate
* We expect the positive results of current well No.6 any day now ...late this week or early next week.
* rig and crew already on the ground on leases ...yes, and 13 more positive Pud sites formed and compacted ready to speed drill in this current programme over the next 2 months
* have a great foothold in the USA market
* Management have advised that the sale of BMX shares have gone through and $14million will be injected into the Company bank account in the next 2-3 days;
* Loan money of $4mil will be paid out upon receipt of the $14mil, which means $10mil+ clear nett funds into bank account
* Excellent cash flow from the current wells
* Top Managers of the Company hold large slabs of shares and plan to be long time holders;
* Marcellus tenement lease to be announced in the next few days. Huge rush is on by the big companies to drill Marcellus, being made available only to the best and brightest Companies ...IMP being one of them
* $100mil Line of Credit from Macquarie bank at only 8% interest rate ...should they complete their current negotiations to takeover other small time successful Naturarl Gas Company/ies in the neighbouring region of the USA
* imp is cashflow positive

* TO targets are usually small to medium-sized industrial manufacturers or service companies whose depressed shares are largely controlled by a single family or organization.

* a takeover target must have a solid balance sheet and strong cash flows to support the added debt the investors will need to complete the buyout.

 

[metric]

and with thanks for the above post written by mrmuzz....

 

[tech/a]

While the following doesnt guarentee a reversal will continue this is what Id be looking for technically.The opportunity is for a low risk trade.
The bottom is normally tested---in this case 2 days later--could again--

 

[bvbfan]

I think CMR is close to a bottom now, picked up a small lot in the auction.

OXR may still drop to $2 or lower.
EQN at $4 also think it's getting towards a bottom.

I have a feeling OXR will announce a profit downgrade after the EGM from the ZFX side of things.

 

[MRC & Co]

EQN at $4 also think it's getting towards a bottom.

Tell me about it, I thought it had decent support and looked extremelly undervalued, until that damn fire!!!! The unexpected things of the mining world eh!

 

[doogie_goes_off]

This thread looks like a bear markets breakout thread. Stocks are down, but let me pick two to make things interesting...

APA, MCR

Bottoms up!

 

[rhyslivs]

What was the policy in this thread with regards to small caps? I.e. around the $10mil mark?

Sultan Corp (SSC) continually getting new high grade zinc, copper and silver hits with an upgraded resource within the month. Also have BFS for the project within the quarter. Expected to be mining next year.

Project is close to bathurst, so infrastructure available.

Has been sold down heavily possibly due to sentiment towards zinc at the moment and general negative market sentiment to spec stocks.

It has been releasing a good stream of very positive news and has only been punished for it!

It looks like it has found its bottom (image attached)

Another one is DMC Mining (DMM)

Excellent iron ore prospects, terrible PR! Looks to have found its bottom with support around the 55c mark, but its very unpredictable. Much more discussion about its undervaluedness in its thread.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I would like to put up 3 falling knives that I think have bottomed,

Macquarie country wide,............. MCW.
Australian Automotive holdings,.... AHE.
Babcock and brown infrastucture,..BBI.