FMG - Fortescue Ltd

MichaelD · 6 September 2008

agro said:
you must be looking to buy it yourself considering you are asking me how low it will go? lol

i don't have a crystal ball and i don't try and pick bottoms

It's fascinating that we are so utterly on different pages.

Have you not worked out that I am being rhetorical (and just a wee bit sarcastic) with my comments?

1. How low will FMG go?
A. I don't know

2. How high will FMG go?
A. I don't know

3. What will FMG's share price be tomorrow?
A. I don't know

4. What will FMG's share price be next year?
A. I don't know

5. Is FMG a good company?
A. I don't know and I don't care

6. Would I buy FMG again?
A. Yes, if it signalled an entry into my system...which btw does NOT bottom pick, it waits for the resumption of an upwards trend before signalling an entry.

7. Do I know how to profit from trends?
A. YES I DO. And that differentiates what I do from the vast majority of stock market participants, as I will never; a. let a small loss turn into a large loss, b. cut a winner's run short by prematurely taking profits, and c. pick a big winner and watch the big win disappear when the price reverses.

Miner · 7 September 2008

If google finance report about publishing of FMG financial result is on Monday then it is likely that the result is not as per market. It could be some insiders who have let FMG share to fall down drastically which Andrew has attributed to short selling etc.

Who knows and will be much clearer on Monday. Probably they will publish the report after closing of market on Monday

agro · 7 September 2008

MichaelD said:
5. Is FMG a good company?
A. I don't know and I don't care

i suggest you take a look at the Diggers and Dealers Presentation 2008 that occurred in August

i say no more - FMG going to expand, they got 5 steel mills already willing to undertake preference shares..

i seem to be repeating myself / wasting my time with skeptics (same as i did when no one said FMG will ever ship iron ore)

MichaelD · 7 September 2008

agro said:
i suggest you take a look at the Diggers and Dealers Presentation 2008 that occurred in August

i say no more - FMG going to expand, they got 5 steel mills already willing to undertake preference shares..

i seem to be repeating myself / wasting my time with skeptics (same as i did when no one said FMG will ever ship iron ore)

The intriguing thing is you still just don't get it, and like all true believers you never will. You've got WAY too much invested in being RIGHT rather than profitable.

1. It is not necessary for me to know anything about a company to trade it profitably. All that I need to know is contained within one undisputable, incontravertible fact: the current share price.

2. I am not a skeptic. I feel no emotions whatsoever towards FMG. I would buy if my system says buy and sell if my system says sell. I would never buy something going down in price. I would never sell something going up in price. Right now, FMG is going down in price so I will not buy. If it goes up again and signals an entry, I'll be back in again without a second thought.

3. I nod my head to true believers - without you, I couldn't profit from trends. The true believers are the ones buying at the top and buying all the way down - the ones I'm selling to. The true believers are the ones who give up in disgust at the bottom and sell at the bottom or on the way back up at break-even - the ones I'm buying from.

Timmy · 7 September 2008

Michael, while I understand what you are getting at with your reference to your technical and money-management-based trading system, this thread is intended to allow a specific discussion on FMG, both from fundamental and technical perspectives, rather than a discussion of any one trading system or approach. Having made your point it might be best now to leave the FMG people to their exchange of views.

renim · 8 September 2008

what was the source of saying the report comes on Monday, cause i've looked for it and can't find it? It was a good day for FMG though, probably some bullishness on iron ore price, seeing how easily Vale got its price rise.
any news on how to get some of the preference shares (9% yield). that would sit nicely in my super

(another way to get over the funds 20% share limit in any one company, my theory is that FMG will never reduce back to less than 20% of my super holding, no matter how long compulsory super keeps adding to the account.)

day traders must be having fun.

tony montana · 8 September 2008

MichaelD said:
The intriguing thing is you still just don't get it, and like all true believers you never will. You've got WAY too much invested in being RIGHT rather than profitable.

1. It is not necessary for me to know anything about a company to trade it profitably. All that I need to know is contained within one undisputable, incontravertible fact: the current share price.

so michael what you are saying is you dont look at anything but the current share price ?
not the...debts...contracts...management....past share price...volumes sold and bought...announcments...nothing....hmmmm?

aacantona · 8 September 2008

MichaelD said:
The intriguing thing is you still just don't get it, and like all true believers you never will. You've got WAY too much invested in being RIGHT rather than profitable.

1. It is not necessary for me to know anything about a company to trade it profitably. All that I need to know is contained within one undisputable, incontravertible fact: the current share price.

2. I am not a skeptic. I feel no emotions whatsoever towards FMG. I would buy if my system says buy and sell if my system says sell. I would never buy something going down in price. I would never sell something going up in price. Right now, FMG is going down in price so I will not buy. If it goes up again and signals an entry, I'll be back in again without a second thought.

3. I nod my head to true believers - without you, I couldn't profit from trends. The true believers are the ones buying at the top and buying all the way down - the ones I'm selling to. The true believers are the ones who give up in disgust at the bottom and sell at the bottom or on the way back up at break-even - the ones I'm buying from.

I think i've read Nasim Taleb's (Fooled by randomness) post... i mean MichaelD's post 6 times over and feel dumber for doing so. You are every bid the herd trader but because you have trading rules, you somehow do much better than the "true believers"? I can't find anything in that post that has any value other someones ego getting a bit to big!

LeeTV · 9 September 2008

aacantona said:
I think i've read Nasim Taleb's (Fooled by randomness) post... i mean MichaelD's post 6 times over and feel dumber for doing so. You are every bid the herd trader but because you have trading rules, you somehow do much better than the "true believers"? I can't find anything in that post that has any value other someones ego getting a bit to big!

Totally agree with aacantona, especially with 1.

How in gods name can anyone trade a company profitably, or at all for that matter, when the only info they have is the current share price

Get off the crack pipe!

Miner · 9 September 2008

LeeTV said:
Totally agree with aacantona, especially with 1.

How in gods name can anyone trade a company profitably, or at all for that matter, when the only info they have is the current share price

Get off the crack pipe!

Hey Fellows

You know what some times it is good to have some crap posting from few egoists. Then we can have mix and match between good and bad postings and will be able to filter real good postings. Life will be very dull otherwise (sorry nothing related to FMG and a bit digression)

Today market was good and so will be tomorrow.

I am hoping to get FMG up tomorrow. Ironically banks were up much higher relatively than FMG or BHP shares.

Think positive and hope to see FMG at least to go up to reach $7.85 on Tuesday

Cheers

MichaelD · 9 September 2008

Ah, a ruckus. Good. It might get some people thinking about what they are doing instead of mindlessly following the crowd.

Just a few points and I'll leave it at that.

My trade in FMG began at $6.40 mid January. I bought it because the price was going up. As it kept rising, I bought more. No other assessment or analysis was necessary. I did not know what the company did.

After FMG stopped going up and started going down in July I sold it at $8.65 and moved on. (aka a trailing stop).

Things to think about;

1. Buying something when its price is rising seems intuitively wrong, doesn't it? And yet, whilst it's rising, it's likely to continue doing so.

2. Yes, trend followers follow the herd too...but they know when to step aside from the herd who will watch something rise and rise and also watch it fall back down again, hoping it's going to go back up again. Sometimes it does go back up again. Sometimes it doesn't.

3. Fundamental information can be lied about. Price cannot. (eg ABC Learning - but I digress.)

njc.corp · 9 September 2008

Miner said:
Hey Fellows

You know what some times it is good to have some crap posting from few egoists. Then we can have mix and match between good and bad postings and will be able to filter real good postings. Life will be very dull otherwise (sorry nothing related to FMG and a bit digression)

Today market was good and so will be tomorrow.

I am hoping to get FMG up tomorrow. Ironically banks were up much higher relatively than FMG or BHP shares.

Think positive and hope to see FMG at least to go up to reach $7.85 on Tuesday

Cheers

miner-please tell me why u think fmg is going to gain a .75 jump today-

when was the last or when or how many times as fmg seen a .75 gain since its listing on the asx?

this market turn around was on high due to the us news on feenie and whatever the other one is-

i dont see good news lasting for 2 day's

not having a go just want to understand why u think we are going to get .75 cents today-

Thanks

Nick--

njc.corp · 9 September 2008

MichaelD said:
Ah, a ruckus. Good. It might get some people thinking about what they are doing instead of mindlessly following the crowd.

Just a few points and I'll leave it at that.

My trade in FMG began at $6.40 mid January. I bought it because the price was going up. As it kept rising, I bought more. No other assessment or analysis was necessary. I did not know what the company did.

After FMG stopped going up and started going down in July I sold it at $8.65 and moved on. (aka a trailing stop).

Things to think about;

1. Buying something when its price is rising seems intuitively wrong, doesn't it? And yet, whilst it's rising, it's likely to continue doing so.

2. Yes, trend followers follow the herd too...but they know when to step aside from the herd who will watch something rise and rise and also watch it fall back down again, hoping it's going to go back up again. Sometimes it does go back up again. Sometimes it doesn't.

3. Fundamental information can be lied about. Price cannot. (eg ABC Learning - but I digress.)

micheal-seen some of your above post before-

i will say they have some good points and i do agree on buying on the way up but that does that mean i cant buy on a low-

times have changed if u ask me-the view of buy low sell high is no longer around unless i am blind-

but i have a question for u-

and we will talk about fmg because its related to it-

what do u call small profit's?

i been in and out of this stock 17 times to day and have lost twice out of that

so where do i stand-

am i good-

i am good because i am taking small profits

or is it just luck-

very basic question-

Thanks

Nick--

Nesa · 9 September 2008

such an interesting stock

bit of a disappointment today though.

BHP and RIO also opened lower

even on the back of a healthy green day for the DOW

Miner · 9 September 2008

njc.corp said:
miner-please tell me why u think fmg is going to gain a .75 jump today-

when was the last or when or how many times as fmg seen a .75 gain since its listing on the asx?

this market turn around was on high due to the us news on feenie and whatever the other one is-

i dont see good news lasting for 2 day's

not having a go just want to understand why u think we are going to get .75 cents today-

Thanks

Nick--

Dear Nick

Very good question and thanks for asking me.

First of all the 0.75 was my hope based on the tremendous increase in Dow Jones INdex on Monday in USA market, FMG is highly volatile to react on such news, always backed by some financial investors who have put enough money on this company than real technical assessment as nothing came out in market in last few weeks from FMG.

However it was strange to see Aussie Market went opposite to DJ movement today considering the Fennie Fred news probably already been factored on Monday. If I was so good to know all values ahead then

Any way for your reference :
On 11 Jan 2008 FMG changed values by 94 cents down and then up by 84 cents.
On 6 June FMG fluctuated by 83 cents
On 25 June 2008 the price fluctuated by $1.31
On 30 June 08 the price fluctuated by 80 cents
On 1 July fluctuation was for 82 cents
On 4 Sept fluctuation was for $1.
Hope that will provide you some fact from recent history.
I was however hoping to see the price gone up than down today

njc.corp · 9 September 2008

Miner said:
Dear Nick

Very good question and thanks for asking me.

First of all the 0.75 was my hope based on the tremendous increase in Dow Jones INdex on Monday in USA market, FMG is highly volatile to react on such news, always backed by some financial investors who have put enough money on this company than real technical assessment as nothing came out in market in last few weeks from FMG.

However it was strange to see Aussie Market went opposite to DJ movement today considering the Fennie Fred news probably already been factored on Monday. If I was so good to know all values ahead then

Any way for your reference :
On 11 Jan 2008 FMG changed values by 94 cents down and then up by 84 cents.
On 6 June FMG fluctuated by 83 cents
On 25 June 2008 the price fluctuated by $1.31
On 30 June 08 the price fluctuated by 80 cents
On 1 July fluctuation was for 82 cents
On 4 Sept fluctuation was for $1.
Hope that will provide you some fact from recent history.
I was however hoping to see the price gone up than down today

Thanks for the fact's- 100%-

But the feenie and whatever mac-that news was told on the weekend-so we did get the favor for our monday-

so my point was i had a very good feeling that we would not sustain the 10% gain yesterday for this morning-

if the feeling is not good enough-i have witness and most have also seen that lately a gain in fmg does not hold the next day-

i dont know why and dont care-

past performance does not represent the future but it is a good baseline to study off in my book-

i am only upset that i dont have a great deal of cash to buy at this bargin price-

remember folks-somesones bargin price may not be your price-

Thanks

Nick--

nitpra · 9 September 2008

njc.corp said:
micheal-seen some of your above post before-

i will say they have some good points and i do agree on buying on the way up but that does that mean i cant buy on a low-

times have changed if u ask me-the view of buy low sell high is no longer around unless i am blind-

but i have a question for u-

and we will talk about fmg because its related to it-

what do u call small profit's?

i been in and out of this stock 17 times to day and have lost twice out of that

so where do i stand-

am i good-

i am good because i am taking small profits

or is it just luck-

very basic question-

Thanks

Nick--

What parcel size did you use and what indicators work well for day trading this stock if dont mind it please

Schmuckie · 9 September 2008

Could this be the reason for the drop?

http://www.nypost.com/seven/09092008/business/hedge_hogs_hunker_128180.htm

Harbinger going to cash.

MichaelD · 10 September 2008

njc.corp said:
and we will talk about fmg because its related to it-

i been in and out of this stock 17 times to day and have lost twice out of that

so where do i stand-

am i good-

i am good because i am taking small profits

or is it just luck-

Going off topic here...

I'm not sure if you've given this small amount of information as merely a teaser or because you actually have no idea of the usual consequences of this type of trading.

I'll assume the latter.

So you've traded 17 times, winning 15 times. What actually matters is how much you win when you win and MOST IMPORTANTLY how much you lose when you lose.

Say you win $10 each time you win.
Say you lose $100 each time you lose.

15 wins is +$150
2 losses is -$200

So let's ask the important questions;
How much do you win when you win?
How much do you lose when you lose?
How many trades using this method have you taken overall?
How do you know your results are NOT due to luck?

njc.corp · 10 September 2008

MichaelD said:
Going off topic here...

I'm not sure if you've given this small amount of information as merely a teaser or because you actually have no idea of the usual consequences of this type of trading.

I'll assume the latter.

So you've traded 17 times, winning 15 times. What actually matters is how much you win when you win and MOST IMPORTANTLY how much you lose when you lose.

Say you win $10 each time you win.
Say you lose $100 each time you lose.

15 wins is +$150
2 losses is -$200

So let's ask the important questions;
How much do you win when you win?
How much do you lose when you lose?
How many trades using this method have you taken overall?
How do you know your results are NOT due to luck?

micheal-if i was to say for example that the method as only been used 10 times what does that mean-

avg win is between 1500-1850

avg loss is 350-450-

well how does anyone know when luck has come into it-

maybe its my fault that i have taken this a bit off topic-but never the less-

Thanks

Nick--

FMG - Fortescue Ltd

MichaelD

Not fooled by randomness

Miner

agro

MichaelD

Not fooled by randomness

Timmy

white swans need love too

renim

tony montana

aacantona

LeeTV

Miner

MichaelD

Not fooled by randomness

njc.corp

njc.corp

Nesa

Miner

njc.corp

nitpra

Schmuckie

MichaelD

Not fooled by randomness

njc.corp

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